Let’s take a quick review of the bowl season with nine of 34 games in the books already. Against the closing lines, underdogs are 6-3 ATS. The only line movement that could alter that record was yesterday’s UNC/Pitt game. The line was -2.5 Pitt in the morning, but closed at -1 Pitt. If you use the morning line, which i actually bet on, or use the lines I got on the games and picks posted in the prior Bowl Chronicle, then the underdog is 7-2 ATS.
You would think that would music to my ears. Anyone who has followed my posts this season here at the JCB or in previous seasons in my various postings at MGo, know that I heart underdogs. I rarely play favorites, and when I do, I almost never lay heavy chalk. I am not a Chalk Eating Mo Fo. Then, why come I’m not putting up a big early profit in bowl season with puppy covers in seven of nine games? Mostly because I have not been shy with the chalky goodies this holiday season. And, naturally, its backfired on me. I’ve gone to the window with six favorites so far in the bowl season. The move has bit back with a 2-4 record. Included in this is hitching wagons with a pair of double digit favorites (seriously, I dont think I took more than 5 double digit favorites during the whole season) and a MAC favorite, despite the league’s shaky bowl history in recent seasons. I feel like I changed stripes in the last week and its cost me money. The good news? I am 3-0 picking dogs, 3-1 overall on double plays (wins with Rutgers, Utah and UNC. A loss with Oregon State) and the JCB’s 5-4 bowl record has us up 1.9 Units.
The better news? Bowl season is just beginning to get cranked up. There’s plenty of games left. And, I’ve learned my lesson. Know your identity and be comfortable with it. Mine is a love of puppies. So, from here on out, starting as soon as tonight, dont expect too many chalky buys. I’m running with the dogs for most of the remaining bowl season.
MUSIC CITY BOWL: CLEMSON vs KENTUCKY. LINES, CLEMSON -7, O/U 54
Doesn’t Kentucky vs Clemson sound like a second round game in March Madness? Instead its a football bowl game, a rematch of the 2006 event on this same field. And, it gives investors the tempation of taking an SEC team catching points against an ACC team. That sounds intriguing.
Kentucky is playing in a bowl game for the fourth straight season, a first in program history. UK won their previous three bowls on this streak, besting East Carolina, Florida State and Clemson. Can they win a fourth in a row and another one over Clemson? I think they can. I know I give UK a better shot at winning, not to mention covering the spread, than the general betting public does.
We all know Clemson tailback CJ Spiller is a gamebreaking stud. But, he only has one more touchdown from scrimmage than UK’s do-everything Randall Cobb. Most folks would look at this game and assume UK didnt have their own explosive answer to Spiller. But, they do. I expect Cobb to have as much impact on this game as Spiller. Besides, we’ve seen throughout Spiller’s entire career, that he can just go off and dominate and yet still see his Tigers lose the game in the end, let alone cover a big point spread. I have not been that impressed with the Clemson defense this season, despite some big names and some good-looking numbers on paper. I think UK can inflict damage with Cobb and running mate Derek Locke. Those guys are 2nd and 3rd in the SEC in all purpose yards. I’ll take two game breakers over one. I think UK can match the glitzy Clemson offense in the running attack and that bodes well for teams catching a touchdown worth of points.
I have a lot of respect for coach Rich Brooks at UK. I love him and OC Joker Phillips having nearly a full month preparation to get their young QB Morgan Newton ready to play this game and new strategies to get Cobb the ball. I think they keep Clemson off balance. Over the last four years, Brooks and the Cats have forged a 16-12 ATS record as an underdog. Those numbers arent amazing or worth a play on its own merits, but that winning mark came againt mostly rugged SEC slates. My point is this program is used to playing with a talent deficiency and, more often than not, they emerge cashing a winning ticket.
Who would you rather take in this game. A program who looks at this bowl as sort of a crowning acheivement whose fans have already surpassed their ticket allotment. Make no mistake, the UK Cats will have a crowd advantage tonight. Or, do you want to take the constant underachiever, whose still licking their wounds from the ACC Title Game loss and wondering why they arent in a better bowl game. UK ought to be more focused. They have the better coaching staff. And, well, I’ll take an SEC getting a TD headstart in bowl season anyday of the week. Also, Clemson is 7-16 ATS as a favorite against bowl teams the last four years.
The Pick: Kentucky +7, 1 Unit…….given UK’s pluckiness as an underdog the last four years and Clemson penchant for not living up to the betting public’s expectations, I’m playing the percentages by taking this touchdown head start. I’m also getting back to my identity. It’s been grating hearing people bemoan about all these bowl upsets destroying their pools because in most years all my cash is on the underdogs. So, we’re getting on the puppy bandwagon before its too late. I also like the UK coaches a lot. Brooks took Oregon to the Rose Bowl in a previous life and has now led UK to its first ever four-season bowl streak. He is two wins shy from the most wins in a four-year history at the program, a mark set by some dud named Bear Byrant. He and Joker Phillips make a great team and their are rumors floating that Brooks may be stepping down and giving the reigns over to Phillips. We’ll see if that happens, but I love their chances at ending it with a signature win tonight. But, I’ll take the seven points just in case.
