Bowl Chronicles: I'm Not Supposed To Even Be Here Edition

Posted on December 26th, 2009 by jamiemac No Comments

Bowl season kicks into high gear later today as we finally get matchups between brand name, BCS league schools. After the mid-major lid lifter in the Motor City Bowl, the football eyes will turn to Charlotte and San Francisco for the Pitt/UNC and Boston College/USC matchups. Truly these teams are channeling Dante from Clerks, undoubtedly once or twice uttering their own spin on his famous phrase, ‘we’re not supposed to even be here.’ Pitt was seconds away from a BCS bid, but shouldnt they still be in a more high end postseason locale? Shouldnt the Butch Davis era in Chapel Hill be further along than a repeat bid to the bowl game they played last year? The Trojan players are wondering if they took a wrong turn and missed the exit to Pasadena as they play in a mid-tier bowl for the first time in years. As for Boston College, they’re the only one who can utter that phrase from a perspective of disrespect. Dont we always think this is the year Boston College falls down and has a losing record? Yet, here they are, another 8-win season in the books, laughing at all the people who thought they werent supposed to here. Today we’ll see which coaches were able to recharge and motivate their teams the most in the wake of disappointing bowl locales.

Meineke Carquest Bowl: North Carolina vs Pittsburgh. Lines, Pitt -3, O/U 45.5

To me one of the bowl seasons more intriguing matchups takes place in Charlotte this afternoon when Pitt plays UNC in the Meineke Carquest Bowl. Both have been adding layers of recruits with solid classes for several years and they’re beginning to hit their stride on the field. I wouldnt be shocked to see this game rematched in a BCS bowl one year from now. Pitt has earned its first back-to-back 9-win seasons since the Dan Marino Era. UNC has had consecutive winning seasons for the first time since Mack Brown elevated the Heels to national contention in the 1990s. Both teams had higher end seasons within their grasp. Pitt lost three games by a combined 11 points and famously lost the Big East Title in that classic against Cincy three weeks ago. UNC could have 10 wins already in the books if not for losing late leads and dropping heartbreakers against FSU and NC State. In fact, six of the Heels combined 9 losses the last two seasons have come by three or less points.

The coaching matchup intrigues as well. With Dave Wannstedt and Butch Davis, you have the two of the more bigger names and highest paid in the profession. They are both direct branches of the Jimmy Johnson coaching tree. Wanny’s club on offense resembles the famed Triplets on Johnson’s Cowboys with QB Bill Stull, RB Dion Lewis and WR Jonathan Baldwin the focal points of a basic, pro-style offense. Davis’s UNC defense has leaned on the blueprint of Johnson’s past defenses built on speed and depth, especially up on the front four. Both teams are loaded with star players who will help be the face of college football for the next couple of seasons. Today, one of them looks to spark momentum headed into the offseason and the long prep for the 2010 season.

UNC is bearing the fruits of an uptick in recent recruiting efforts since Butch Davis was hired in 2007. His first three classes have been ranked at an average of 19.66 in the country. The three years prior to his arrival that average was over 37. The 2007 class saw the first jump in recruiting rankings as the Heels settled in at #19 and had more 4-stars signed that the three previous year combined. That haul has netted this year’s leading rusher, its #1 and #3 receivers, and, arguably its two best players on defense, DT Marvin Austin and LB Quan Sturdevant, both bigtime NFL prospects. This year’s freshmen class ranked in the top-10 and already has seen contributors emerge, including the teams #2 receiver, a starting offensive linemen and linebackers. Half of the team’s starting units was born out of the last three recruiting classes, with loads of underclassmen waiting in the backups wings ready for a chance when the seniors this year leave campus.

What its helped create is not only the first back-to-back bowl games in a dozen years, but also the making of an excellent defense. This year, the Heels have the 6th ranked team in total defense in the country and are in the top-15 in just about every other major statistical defensive category. Fast and deep along the front line, the Heels rotate a lot of talented players on the defensive line. They will be able to wear out the Panthers offensive line over four quarters and put pressue on Pitt QB Stull, forcing his sometimes mistake-prone game onto the table. Sturdevant, Bruce Carter and Kevin Reddick form the best LB corps in the ACC . Everyone in the front seven is capable of making a drive changing sack or tackle for loss. The secondary has picked off 19 passes, keyed by Deunta Williams, Kendric Burney and Charles Brown. Only two seniors are part of the defensive rotation, and if players like Austin and Sturdevant stick around for their fourth years, then this defense has the chance to become the nation’s most dominant unit in 2010.

Watching them go head-to-haed with Pitt’s stat power offense will be an amazing matchup to keep an eye. Uber frosh Dion Lewis is a few yards away from breaking Tony Dorsett freshmen rushing record. He’s shifty, has great vision and been able to rip off 100-yard games against all comers. Today, he’ll have to slog against the best defense the team has faced all year. The Heels ball hawking secondary will have to contain Baldwin, whose in line for being named the next great wideout during his upperclassmen years at Pitt. This is the quite possibly a matchup of one of the best BCS offenses and BCS defense next year. Dont heat up your leftovers when these units are on the field knocking heads.

Pitt can play some defense as well. Indeed, they lead the nation in sacks. They will pose as many matchup problems for the Heels O as in the other matchup. The Heels, however, dont have the obvious weapons that Pitt has to muster an attack against the solid defense across the field. Statistically, speaking this is a mismatch. The Heels leading rusher has 1,000 yards less than Lewis, QB TJ Yates has thrown more picks than TDs and they struggle pushing the ball down field. Greg Romeus, Gus Mastakas up front, Greg Williams at linebacker and Jovani Chappel and Aaron Berry in the secondary are the playmakers on D and they are set on proving the Panthers have the better stop unit in this game.

Wannstedt’s recruting efforts have not seen an uptick from past performance the way Davis did at UNC. But, Wanny’s classes are always ranked somewhere in the bottom portions of top-25 every season. And, after 5 seasons of getting his kind of players and training them in his program, he finally has to program rocking and rolling. While the team has 10 senior starters on its first string, there are plenty of underclassmen stars that look to keep the good times rolling at Pitt. Guys like Lewis, Baldwin, Henry Hynoski and Lucas Nix on offense and Williams, Max Gruder and Jerrad Holley on D will form the nucleous for the next several seasons.

In the end, I like the Heels today. Yes, their offense looks horrible on paper. But, Yates has played better as the season got along. Houston doesnt have eye popping rushing stats, but he never takes a loss and his battering ram style can wear down the undersized Pitt front. If they can slow up the Pitt pass rush and not get totally dominated in that reagrd, then the Heels will find some offense. Pitt may have the better offense, but I give the Heels an edge in three other categories: defense, special teams and coaching. I’ll take that Triplet in a bowl game every time. Throw in a nice home field edge by playing in Charlotte and the Heels make amends for losing this game by a single point to Pat White and company last year.

The Pick: North Carolina +3, 2 Units……..I’ll take Butch Davis over Wanny every time I can when I’m getting a head start. Besides, the Heels have been solid underdog investments in the Butch Davis era, loggin an 11-4 mark with a head start in his three years on campus. Overall, as a program, they’ve been profitable as small dogs, going 12-3 ATS when catching 3 or less points. The Panthers, meanwhile, have not been great in proverbial ‘coin flip’ games the last two years. Despite consecutive 9-win seasons, Pitt is just 3-5 ATS in games where the spread is a field goal or less in either direction. Like I said above, I’m rolling with the better defense, special teams, coach and home field.

Emerald Bowl: USC vs Boston College. Line, USC -7, O/U 45.5

Can anyone be 100 percent sure that the Trojans want to be playing today. After 7 Pac 10 titles in a row, followed by BCS showdowns, this has to be a letdown. Not only is it a December bowl game, but its such a second tier game that instead of a sexy counterpart on the other side of the field, its a BC team that the Trojan players likely assume they can walk over in thier sleep. Throw in the ongoing Joe McKnight controversy and you have all the makings of the proverbial disinterested favorite in this one. I do think the timing and location of the game helps. I doubt the Trojans have been out partying in San Francisco in Christmas Day, ignoring their game prep. Had this been another city and not the day after Christmas, I would not be so sure about that.

USC’s advantage in this game is pure talent. Can Pete Carroll get his talented bunch to play with pride and purpose and end a season in which they saw their comeuppance time and time again in Pac 10 play on a winning note? They were rolled by some high end Pac 10 teams, all which had more offensive weaponry than BC will have today. Is USC recharged after the break or will their flaws be exposed again.

BC does have a solid tailback in Montell Harris, who hit the century mark in four games to close the season. Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford and Arizona all were able to run the ball right at the Trojans, eventually running them right off the field in defeat. Look for BC to give Harris at least 25 carries in an attempt to slow the game down and keep the defense’s focus on stopping him. If the USC trumps Harris, then BC will have problems all day long. BC QB David Shinskie has been a turnover machine most of the year. How in the world is he going to keep that from happening against the most talented secondary he’s seen all season if he’s constantly in obvious passing downs every possession.

On the other side of the ball, Boston College, as always, has a tough, physical defense and a great set of linebackers spearheading the effort. They too are going up against a freshmen QB whose struggled at times. Dont be surprised to see this turn into a game of field goals in the early going as better defense trump struggling offense coming out of the gates.

Eventually, I think the better talent will find an extra gear and brezze by to victory. The Trojans have way too much team speed. What we saw this year was not a lesser USC team or a waning dynasty on its way out of BCS contention. Hardly. We saw a team that lost a ton to the pros last year, had to replace them with first time, underclassmen contributors and then go up against a Pac 10 slate during a season when the league, not only experience a Renaissance, but may have been the toughest in the land, not named the SEC.

With the freshmen Barkley, his young offensive playmakers and first time D starters up front Nick Perry, Jurrel Casey and Chris Gallipo, I expect these extra practices and additional game to be a big boost in their game. I also think all the teams that beat USC this season in the Pac 10 would be favored over Boston College. This Eagle team doesnt have the explosiveness or speed as the Oregons of the world, for example. In the end, Boston College will struggle to get at least 14 points on the board. Turnovers and overall athleticsm edge in favor of USC will net them a score close to 30. I’m thinking this game has 27-13 written all over it.

The Pick: USC -7, 1 Unit……This will be a close, low scoring first half. Look for USC to dominate the second half. Harris and the Eagles rushing attack is no Oregon State, Oregon or Stanford. The Trojans will be able to bottle him up and force BC into way too many third and longs to ultimately be successful. When the game is on the line in the second half, I expect Shinskie to complete as many passes to Trojan DBs Taylor Mays and Will Harris than to his own targets. I hate betting favorites once we pass Christmas Day, especially one who might not care to be there. But, the Trojans have always been money in bowl games, they have way more talent than BC and eventually it will all be on display. This might be the last favorite I take for awhile during he bowl run. And, I’m a little shocked to be taking two chalk eaters out of three games today. Dogs are 5-1 ATS in bowl season, so maybe a little correction towards the chalk is in order before the dogs start howling again. At least, thats the hope.

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