Pac 10 meets Mountain West Conference in the next two nights of bowl season, giving us a classic battle of regional conferences looking for respect from one another. The site of tonight’s challenge is the Las Vegas Bowl with Oregon State and BYU carrying the flags for their respective leagues. Frankly, its going to be one of the better games of the bowl season. Its one of only two non-BCS bowl games between teams ranked in the top-20, the other being Penn State-LSU in the Capital One Bowl.
LAS VEGAS BOWL. BYU vs OREGON STATE. Lines, OSU -2.5, O/U 58. Moneylines: OSU -140, BYU +120
The first three bowl games of the season treated us to high scoring, big play affairs. With Sean Canfield, James and Jacquizz Rodgers for OSU and Max Hall, Harvey Unga and a wide assortment of receiving targets for BYU, you dont need to stretch the imagination far to see another repeat. The stars on these teams have been prolific at hitting paydirt during their careers and you probably can go ahead and book 4 TDs apiece from each club’s starting QB/RB tandem. Dont be surprised to see the Over hit for the fourth straight game to start the bowl season.
HALL VS CANFIELD, HIGH END QB DUEL
This will be one of the more exciting QB duels all bowl season, as both senior QBs are playing at the top of their games and look to cap their collegiate careers with a statement win in a bowl game. The Cougars Max Hall took over for the departed John Beck in 2007 and the BYU offense never looked back. Hall has tossed 91 TDs in his three seasons as a starter, including 30 this season. He knows how to spread the field with seven targets catching more than 20 balls this season, six with multiple TD catches and plenty of big play potential with four guys averaging mroe than 13.5 yards per catch. Hall’s bread and butter is playing catch with his pair of TEs Dennis Pitta and Andrew George, with the duo combining for 87 catches, over 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Couagrs also have a legit deep threat in McKay Jacobsen, who missed close to half the season with injury, but still managed over 500 yards receiving and over 25 yards per catch. He will be the most dangerous deep threat on the field for either team tonight. Hall will test the Beavers pass defense all night. Oregon State has had issues all season defending the pass. They’re breaking in a new CB tonight in the wake of Tim Clark’s injury in the Civil War two weeks ago. That’s not good. Expect Hall to put up plenty of highlights, with some predicting at least 10 Cougars catching balls, in his college swan song.
Oregon State’s answer to all this may be to trump the Cougars with even more offense. The Beavers have one of the best offenses in the country as well. They are the best passing team in the Pac 10 and they balance that out by having one of the more game breaking tailbacks in the country in Jacquizz Rodgers. They’re the 22nd ranked scoring offense in the country, but they’ve actually boosted their production in league play, averaging a few decimal points below 35 points per game against fellow Pac 10 teams. In the two seasons since the brothers Rodgers have been on the field together for Oregon State, nobody in the Pac 10 has really been able to stop them. Jacquizz is the tailback, who in addition to more than 1,300 rushing has caught over 60 balls and scored 21 times. His brother James is the wide out, who is flirting with a 100-catch season. The two are 1-2 in the Pac 10 in all purpose yards. I know this isnt a Pac 10 game, but its worth pointing out that OSU is 15-3 in conference play with these two on the roster. Considering I believe the Pac 10 was the best league this season, I dont take those numbers lightly nor do I consider them flukey in any way. The Rodgers brothers will be a focal point of the BYU defense, but they’re not the only threats OSU has. Teams would be wise not to double team the WR Rdogers as the Beavers Damola Adeniji and Joe Halahuni, both have had solid seasons, combining for more than 80 catches and over 13 yards per pop.
The added element to the Beaver attack this season has been the emergence of lefty QB Sean Canfield. Oft-injured throughout his career, he had a hard time wrestling full time playing time away from other QBs on the roster. Until this season, that is. Canfield struggled during his sophomore year splitting the starting duties with Lyle Moevau. Injuries limited him to just 84 passing attempts last year. But, his final year in Corvallis has been magical. He’s completing more than 70 percent of his passes for more than 3,000 yards with 21 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. In a league known for offense and QBs, there has been no better QB throwing the ball in the Pac 10 this year than Canfield. And, its likely made him millions. When they season began, Canfield was not an NFL draft prospect, failing to appear on the ESPN draftniks top-15 QBs of the senior class. Now? He’s the sixth overall QB prospect and with UW’s Jake Locker, the top QB prospect, turning down the draft for another college season, Canfield stock’s is even more attractive. His goal tonight is to play a perfect game. Doing so would not only help OSU beat BYU, but it also could propel him into the third or even second round of the draft. That, is how you make your senrior year work for you.
MOTIVATIONAL QUESTIONS?
The game also gives us a curious contrast in motivation. Is Oregon State too deflated from their bitter, for-the-Roses defeat against arch rival Oregon less than three weeks. They were a few plays away from a historic Rose Bowl, but instead are playing in front of 30,000 or so in a pre-Christmas bowl. Their is a lot of precedence out there for near-miss or jilted from the BCS teams falling flat in their underwhelming minor bowl destination. But, what about BYU’s mindset? This is their fifth straight trip to Las Vegas. I think they expected better and have to be disappointed about another trip here. They played great in this bowl in 2005 and 2006. But, they struggled in 2007 to beat a weak, undermanned UCLA team and last season pretty much were smoked by Arizona. Maybe its difficult to keep them motivated to be their best for the same bowl game over and over again. I think this motivation mumbo-jumbo is a push. I respect both coaches and the senior leadership of both teams that I think they realize what kind of highlight has been put on the game because of their rankings. Both clubs might be bummed out about bowl designation, but neither are bummed about who they’re playing. Translation: I just wasted your time while you read this paragraph.
BEAVERS, A MUST BUY EVERY HOME STRETCH
How about I repay you with a little investment information: Pending further notice, perhaps as long as the Rodgers brothers remain on campus, Oregon State is pertetually on my buy list. They are 23-8 ATS over the last three seasons. Sometimes you can set a watch to a program’s identity. Such is the case with Oregon State. Every year, you can bet the Beavers to struggle out of gates and have a losing September record, burning money along the way. But, you can always book a bigtime rebound. No program in the country improves itself more over the course of the season than Oregon State does. They won 6 of 7 to close ’04, 8 of 9 to close ’06, 7 of 8 in ’07 and ’08 and this season won six of their last eight, with this bowl result pending. Those closing kicks have more than paid off for their boosters. Over the last 10 years, during the final six games of the season, plus to bowl games, the Beavers are 47-24 ATS. They’re 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in bowl games this decade. If you’re not clued into the Beaver program late in the season, you’re probably missing out on a good investment. This season is no different with covers in seven of the eight games they’ve played since September.
AND, THE WINNER IS?
I would be stunned if this game didnt resemble an Arena Football games at times. Neither team is great at defending the pass. Technically speaking, the Cougars rank better than OSU (65th to 87th), but the Beavers have played, from top-to-bottom, a tougher slate of offenses. The QB with the ball in his hands last might be the one that wins and separates himself as the MVP of the game. Want some prop advice? Take the Over on as many QB numbers as possible.
In the end, I like the Beavers defense just a bit more to be able to slow the roll of the powerful offense its facing just slightly enough to pave the way for a win. I think they have some playmakers along the front seven, notably Stephen Peae, who will be the most effective DT on either team tonight and LBs Dwight Roberson and Keaton Kristick. If any of these two defesnes has a strength tonight, its the Beavers solid effort aginst the run tihis season. Kristick plays with a mean streak and look for him to lay a heavy hit on Hall early on to send a message. Hall has been known to be careless with his throws and rarely goes a game without at least one pick. I dont expect too many TOs in this game, so the one or two that might come from the arm of Hall could be enough for OSU to break serve in what should be a ‘you score, I score’ type of affair from start to finish.
They held Toby Gerhardt to under 100 yards in a 10-point win over Stanford, they allowed just 39 yards to Cal in a blowout win and they contained just about everyone’s rushing attack on their slate. Only USC and Oregon really had any success running the ball, and BYU cant match either of those teams in that department. BYU’s UNga has rushed for 1,000 yards and 5.5 ypc as a nice change of pass to Hall’s pryotechtronics, but I lthink the Beavers will nuetralize him, taking out a key trump card in the Cougar attack.
I also dont think the BYU defense has seen anything the likes of the Rodgers brothers all season long. Frankly, they will have too much speed for them. BYU likes to play strict assignement football, but I expect the OSU coaches to set the Rodgers up all day in space, forcing the slower Cougar D to respond. More often than not, they wont and it will be off to the races. I said it above, and I’ll repeat it, with the Rodgers brothers all the field at the same time together, this has been one of the better teams in the country the last two seasons. I expect more proof behind that assertion when the final gun sounds tonight.
The Pick: Oregon State, -2, (-125) 2Unit.s……..I have been paying attention to point spreads and capping for the better part of a decade. Oregon State is always one of my favorite plays. Last season, I picked against them in bowl season because the Rodgers brothers were injured and not playing. Yet, they still won. I have been waiting a full year to make amends. The Beavers pulled in a lot of late season cash for me again. I’ll ride them here. BYU played two teams this season that bring the firepower like OSU can and they were thumped both times by Florida State and TCU. Until the Rodgers brothers leave campus, I am not getting off the Beaver train.
