St. Petersburg Bowl: Rutgers -3 over Central Florida, O/U 44.5. Moneyline, Rutgers -145, UCF +125
In each of the last three years, a Big East team has mauled a Conference USA team by double digits in a pre-Christmas Day bowl game. In the Papajohns’s Bowl, USF crunched ECu 24-7 in 2006 and Cincy outraced Southern Miss 31-21 in 2007. Last season in the debut of the St. Pete Bowl, USF routed Memphis 41-17. That history of head-to-heads between the leagues has me listening to Rutgers laying the small chalk tonight against UCF.
So too does the simple bowl philosophy that many people like to follow this time of year. It’s a chronological pattern. Basically start out by betting the favorites through Christmas Day. For the rest of December jump onto the Underdogs, but when the New Year hits get back on the chalk train. Admittedly, the numbers dont back this up enough to go out and do this blind from start to finish. But, I find it at least a good jumping off point when breaking down the entire bowl slate. One reason is because it seems every year the underdogs howl on a big run at some point. And, since the glut of bowl games typically takes place in that week after Christmas, many bettors have got fat betting late December underdogs. So, keep an eye for that run and dont be hesitant to play an underdog if you like the side during the post Christmas portion of the program. That’s about as far as I will go in preaching the virutes of starting and stopping your analysis with this chalk to dog to chalk path for the bowl season.
When I say the numbers dont back up doing this on the blind, I am talking about the fact that pre-Christmas Day favorites are just 28-26 ATS the last 10 seasons. If you bet a unit, with standard vig applying, on each game, you would actually be down 0.6 units. I’ve never really put too much stock in this end of the theory. I am on the other end of the theory in January if only because I always seem to do so ‘blah’ on New Year’s Day and a lot of it stems from taking eventually outclassed dogs in those big games. Full confession, if you’re looking for the sucker whose been betting the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl the last few years, your search is over. I is sucker. Nice to meet you.
Getting back to the pre-Christmas Day end, one reason I dont buy into the theory whole heartily is due to the overall explosion of bowl games, particularily on this end of the slate. I have several rules about assessing the effectiveness of systems and trends. One of them is to beware when a system that crops up two or three times a season suddenly pops up a bunch on one Saturday. I have the same feeling here. After beginning the decade with just four pre-Christmas Day bowl games, the number of contests held on or before December 25 have increased so much that the average number of games over the last ten seasons is actually more than six during this part of bowl season.
Through the end of the 1990s and into this decade, there basically was just a couple of these games a season. The MAC and WAC met in the Las Vegas Bowl and then a Christmas Day Aloha Bowl between teams from BCS leagues pretty much was it. A second game in Hawaii was added, played sometimes on Christmas Eve or as a Xmas Doubleheader. It too typically included a pair of BCS teams. That pretty much was it and it all but started the bowl season. We saw some good efforts in those games, such as Akili Smith making millions even though his team fell short in a shootout against Colorado. And, who in their right mind could forget Washington dropping 52 on Sparty in the 1997 edition. Man, I think I just saw Rashan Shehee score a touchdown.
In 2001, the New Orleans and GMAC Bowls debuted. And, even though the second bowl game in Hawaii was contracted, the number of new bowl games added overall and the subsequent scheduling challenges of getting them all on TV has created the need to expand bowl season to the size it is today where the games begin on a daily basis a full week before Christmas Day. This is the seventh year in a row there have been at least a half dozen bowls on or before Christmas. To me, we’re still learning about the different motivation levels and matchup issues created in these early games, which often pit mid majors against each other or with a middle class team from a BCS league.
One thing from within the non-revealing 28-26 ATS chalk number from above that is rather eye opening is the success short favorites have had. In this era of added pre-Christmas Day bowl games, chalk of 3.5 or points or less are currently on a 15-4 ATS run. So, then, getting back to why I like Rutgers……
Both defenses today should, by and large, outplay the offense on the other end of the field. These are two good defenses going up against largely impotent offenses. In the end, I like the Rutgers defense a lot more to shut down the UCF Knights and the Rutgers offense a bit more to to puncture the UCF D to provide the difference making scores..
Rutgers has faced the likes of Dion Lewis, Noel Devine, the brawny OL and run game at UConn and the varied, high scoring Cincy attack. With the exception of the Cincy game to start the season, Rutgers has had more than enough defense to keep themselves on even terms and win ball games againt teams that would run UCF off the field. The Scarlet Knights D has a nice blend of experience and youth that was really peaking during the back half of the season. They ended up in the top 20 in total D, rushing D and scoring D. And, they have a crazy ability to force missed kicks. Five starters on their defense are seniors who have been playmakers for several seasons. They have a chance to end their career with an undefeated 4-0 bowl record, unthinkable by most football observers when they arrived on campus. I think guys like George Johnson, Ryan Imperio and Devin Mcourty lead a spirited effort tonight and the Rutgers defense plays its best game of the season to close out their careers.
Despite those seniors, this is an overall young Rutgers squad. One that starts six freshmen, including high-prized recruit Tom Savage at QB. He’s been up and down this season, and it’s a going to be a different freshmen starter on offense that I think will end being the deciding factor between these teams today.
Keep an eye on #6, Mohammed Sanu, a big time threat who will be used in every way today by the Rutgers coaches. The freshmen, former New Jersey High School Player of the Year is second on the team in receptions. But, he’s also utilized a lot out of the Wildcat with direct snaps. On just 49 attempts, he’s been the teams second leading rusher, going for over 6 yards a carry. He’s accounted for 7 touchdowns.
Sanu was a three-star recruit, ranked as the #47 safety per Rivals, but as high as #17 at that position per ESPN. He did a little but of everything in high school from quarterbacking to playing safety to punting. Becuase of age restrictions, he couldnt play his final high school season in 2008, so he finished classes and enrolled in Rutgers back in January. He was a star for Rutgers in spring drills, earning a hard hitting reputation and looked a sure bet to start at safety come September, but two days before the spring game, coaches moved Sanu to wide receiver. With just a couple of practices under his belt, he proved to be the biggest offensive threat of that final spring scrimmage. He’s been on offense ever since and looks primed to take over as the next bigtime playmaker in the Big East.
What’s compelling about his numbers is that he was hidden during the team’s toilet paper soft non conference schedule. Had he been used in those games, like he was the rest of the slate, we’d be looking at a fresmen with close to 90 catches and 1,000 yards rushing. But, consider how more valid his numbers are, given that more than 80 percent of it came against Big East rivals, the toughest part of its schedule. He had three 100 games receiving, a 100-yard rushing game and five total TDs against Big East foes. He role really expanded the final month, which ended with the offense and a lot of touches going through him. Between these teams tonight, he is the biggest game breaker on the offensive end.
The Pick: Rutgers, moneyline -145, to win 2 units……..Beyond just Sanu’s emergence as an all-around threat to scheme around, I would think Rutgers still has the better offense and is better equipped at overcoming a good defense than UCF. Sanu, combined with the team’s top overall target speedy Tim Brown and a big offensive line anchored by likely NFL first round pick Anthony Davis, will give Rutgers enough offense in this to eventaully emerge victorious from an otherwise defensive struggle.
