Ho Ho Ho, Happy Bowl Season, Everyone!
Another bowl extravaganza is upon us, a sprint of postseason exhibitions virtually every day from here on out, culminating with the BCS Title Game between Texas and Alabama 20 days from now. We get started today with a doubleheader with the New Mexico and St. Peterburg Bowls. As important, is the debut edition of the 2009-10 Bowl Chronicle series. Here’s the routine, we will have a Bowl Chronicle Edition for every day there is a bowl game, and, in some cases, like today, when there are more than one game, we will have multiple posts. Each post will include at the end of the commentary and breakdown, a prediction or two, against the spread, on the games in question in the post. I did this last year at MGoBlog and, the season before that, did something similar at a more point spread topical forum. Both times ended with a profitable bowl run, so lets try to keep the positive bowl tidings rolling for another season.
We begin the bowl march this afternoon with the New Mexico Bowl, pitting Fresno State against Wyoming. Some arent too enthused about this game. But, I say hogwash to those naysayers. I mean, what’s not to like about this matchup? We finally get to solve a bitter fued thats been dividing college football fans all season long: which has the stronger middle class of 6 to 8 win teams, the Mountain West or the Western Athletic Conference? Debate ends today. The Bulldogs and Cowboys will battle this afternoon with all the evidence on the line. That, and they play off for a pretty sweet looking set of trophies.
Wyoming? Wyoming!
For the third year in the four-year history of the New Mexico Bowl, a team with a losing record from the year before pulled in enough wins this go around to net bowl eligibility and a spot on this field. In 2006, San Jose rose up after five straight losing seasons to qualify for this game and, last season, Colorado State shook off consecutive losing campaigns to earn a pre-Christmas weekend in New Mexico.
This season, its the surprising Wyoming Cowboys out of the Mountain West who’ve gone rags to riches on us. Heading into the season, the Pokes had just one winning season this decade, averaging less than four wins a season. Bowl games have been rare in Laramie. This is just their first since 1994, their third since 1990 and only their fifth in the last 32 seasons. Until they upset UCLA in the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl, Wyoming’s most notable bowl accomplishment this generation was being on the other end of a Barry Sanders whooping stick in the 1988 Holiday Bowl. Sanders went off for 222 yards and five scores in just three quarters of work, showing no signs of the Heisman Jinx that has betrayed many of his brethern.
Thats ancient history to this group of young Cowboys, who feature six sophomores and four freshmen on their current first string. That includes their starting QB, leading rusher, entire linebacking crew and a corner and safety in the secondary. They got to this point behind their amazing 5-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, including the last second 17-16 win over Colorado State in the finale to clinch bowl eligibility. However, none of those dramatic victories came against a bowl subdivision team with a winning record. In fact in their six wins this season, they’ve come against foes with a combined 24-47 record.
And, thats the problem when judging Wyoming. The six teams with a pulse they played basically steamrolled them by a combined 184-30. They were shutout three times and never scored more than 10 points in those games. They snuck by all the bad teams on the slate, but were borderline non competitive against all the good teams they played. In the end, we have a team that has terrible numbers across the board and not much to hang their hat on. Wyoming might be the least impressive of all the bowl teams. We’re looking at the 112th ranked total offense, 111th in points scored, 82 total defense, 76th in scoring defense and so on. Bowl Fever! Catch It! Their one good thing is the leading turnover margin in Mountain West Conference play. They’ll need every bit of that turnover mojo to conquer Fresno State today.
The Cowboys do do another thing really well, and, perhaps its the most important thing for the purposes of this exercise. They’re 8-3 Against The Spread. That makes them the most profitable team out of the MWC this season. In all 11 chances this year, they were catching points like they are today. This team is used to exceeding the betting public’s expectations, style points and overall stats be damned. Beyond notching this bowl bid, perhaps the program’s next biggest accomplishment this season was their inclusion in the debut of the JCB’s very own top-10. How good were the Pokes against the spot this season? They were shutout against Air Force, but still managed to cover a double digit spread.
The aforementioned turnaround clubs that made the New Mexico Bowl were both led by first year head coaches. Wyoming’s Dave Christensen is, coincindentally, in his first year as head coach with the Cowboys. Both those previous teams capped their rebound season with a win in this. Maybe there’s some Karmic history out there in where Wyoming’s chances arent as a bleak as the betting public suggests.
Fresno
In the other corner, sits Fresno State, every bit the known quantity this afternoon as Wyoming is the unknown quantity. We know what we’re getting out Fresno: a powerful running attack behind a big offensive line, a playmaking passing attack, a dangerous return game and a defense that can give up as many big plays as its offense can create. They also fumble a lot, which has led to a fifth straight year of a turnover margin deficit. That’s been Fresno’s type cast identity for going on four or five years now. Expect to see doses of each throughout today’s contest.
What worries me most about backing the Bulldogs is another aspect of the identity they’ve forged this decade. When you think Fresno State, you think Giant Killer. Everyone knows by now that Pat Hill’s Bulldogs will take on anyone, anywhere and anytime. They take on the big boys every year, win a few of those games, but cover the spread in a lot of them. I’ve detailed it here all season, writing on the topic each time they they played a BCS school (this year the targets were Wisconsin, Cincinnati and Ilinois), picking them each time here at the JCB and winning every time out. After a decade of watching this Daivd vs Goliath routine, I dont even think twice anymore putting cash on the Bulldogs when they’re catching points against anyone from a BCS league.
Of course, that leads us to the other side of the coin, the one that shines our worry about their identity today. The Bulldogs have a tendency to play down to their opponent and giveaway a lot of points thanks to those turnovers. They lose way too many games they shouldnt in WAC play. It’s one thing to have have never won the conference and be passed up as league standard bearer by Boise State. No shame in that at all. The problem is they are never even the runner up and the team at the Broncos heels. Sometimes they’re not even third in line. For proof, I offer Fresno’s 3-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS mark against eventual WAC bowl teams the last four seasons. So, they feast of the lightweights of their league and struggle against whoever is in the top-3? Wow, that doesnt sound too different from the trick Wyoming pulled this season. In the last 10 years, Fresno is 4-1 ATS in bowl games against BCS foes, but just 1-3 ATS in bowls against non BCS foes. Just two weeks ago they were sky high to invade a Big 10 stadium and came out with a last second winning scalp. Now, they play little old nobody Wyoming from, yawm, the Mountain West Conference in, double yawn, the New Mexico Bowl which they played in last year. You can see why I worry about Fresno’s motivation today against the backdrop of their past history of sleepwalking unless a big mark is across the field.
This Fresno team gives me a better feeling, though. They havent been quite as inconsisent as in years past. They’re 4-2 ATS as a favorite this year, their first winning season as chalk since 2005 and only the third time in the last 10 years. It’s also just the third time they’ve gone through the regular season without a straight up loss when favored by oddsmakers.
They’ve taken care of business this year and really only had one truly bad outing on the season. They have one of the best offensive lines on the west coast. Ryan Matthews is one the best running backs in the game. And, the passing attack with the likes of Ryan Colburn and Seri Ajrantutu has big play capability and can match the powerful running game point for point. Fresno was every bit as good as Wisconsin and Cincinnati when they played this season. The Badgers could not contain Fresno’s wide out threats. Ryan Matthews ran all day on the Bearcats. Had it not been for ill-timed turnovers and star efforts out of Jonathan Clay and Marty Gilyard, Fresno wins those games. Matthews has been a stud and rushed for 787 yards in the teams six most important games on the season. There’s no reason to think he cant tee off on the Cowboys today and set himself up for a million dollar contract come April.
Alright, you’ve proved you’ve studied these teams, Genius, so how does this go down?
Matthews will be the clear cut MVP today. He has been a stud all season and rushed for 787 yards in the teams six most important games on the season. There’s no reason to think he cant tee off on the Cowboys today and set himself up for a million dollar contract come April. The biggest mismatch of the day will be Fresno’s 7th ranked rushing offense vs the Cowboys 90th ranked rushing defense. And the Dogs will exploit it all day long. Everytime I picture Fresno rocking its bread and butter unbalanced line with two TEs on the same side look, I see them gashing Wyoming and rolling for 10 yards a pop. Best bet? Find a Book who will give you prop bet odds on the Over on rushing yards by Matthews. Of course, good luck finding one who’ll do that. Nobody in their right mind would take the Under on something like that. He could go for over two bills today. I think his backup, speedy frosh Robbie Rousse, is good for another 60 yards.
Fresno has more talent. I dont think its that close. If they both play their ‘A’ games, Fresno still walks away with a comfy double digit win. I think they still do that even if they play sub optimal. In referencing Fresno’s lacksadaisical woes against their fellow mid-majors, dont forget just how good some of those teams were. The Nevada program that’s passed them in the league pecking order has a top flight and tricky-to-defend rushing attack. The Hawaii teams that beat them up for a few years had an NFL talent at QB. The Tulsa team that beat them in the 2004 Liberty Bowl was a conference champion. Last year’s Colorado State club had the powerful Gantral Johnson, one of the best tailbacks in the country. You knew going into the game that Fresno would never be able to stop Johnson, whose currently on the New York Giants roster, regardless of how motivated they were.
Today, I dont think Wyoming has enough in its arsenal to take advantage of a non fully revved up Pat Hill squad, the way others have before. Wyoming has the proverbial nice upside with all the youth on their team. But, for now, they did well to get this far, but will continue their struggle against good teams. QB Austyn Carta-Samuels had a nice freshmen season and rarely throws picks. But, he’s really struggled to get the ball downfield. There’s not much explosiveness in this passing attack. Carta-Samuels doesnt even average 6 yards per attempt and his top target averages less than 10 yards a catch. Wyoming will need to score a lot of points to keep up with Fresno today, and you have to doubt their ability to do that given they havent seen a point out of the passing game since Ocotber. They have averaged just under 10 points a game against team with a winning record and half of those points were accounted in their opener against 7-5 FCS team Weber State.
To be sure, Wyoming has had its moments this year, such as the 24 fourth quarter points in a comeback win over San Diego State in November, three straight 30-point efforts during the first half of the season and stingy, overachieving defensive efforts against Air Force and Utah where they only allowed 10 and 22 points respectively. Not to mention those five wins by a touchdown or less this season. Fresno’s D isnt great, Wyoming will hit a few big plays and could even exceed their 17-point scoring average. But, I dont think they have any chance at stopping the Fresno’s offense. Eventually, they fall off pace. Matthews dominates from the first drive. He and Colburn will account for at least a pair of TDs each. Wyoming hangs around with a spirited effort early, but eventually the Fresno rushing machine is too much to contain. Bulldogs win by two touchdowns.
The Pick: Fresno -10 (-120), 1 Unit……..this has been a funky line all week. Maybe its becuase its the first bowl game, but its been the only one that’s seen significant line movement, really since the bowl lines were released nearly two weeks ago. The line opened at 11, quickly went up to 11.5 and for several days early this week settled in at a whopping 12.5. The line has steamed the other way since, steadily climbing back down to 11. This morning, it was 10.5, and I bought it down to 10. I feel good about getting in at the cheap, low price, even with paying a little extra in juice to get it down to 10. Call it a little extra insurance if the Pokes score a late TD when down 17. In the end, I dont think I’ll need it. This will eventually turn into a route, something in the ballpark of 38-21, in a game that never feels close as it becomes apparent from the get go that Wyoming wont stop the Bulldog ground attack.
If you really want to do something unique to celebrate the debut of bowl season, think about the Over for Fresno points at 32.5. Or, at sportsbook.com, you can get odds on which team in the Pre-Christmas bowls will score more points. I would think Nevada would be a lock, but, guess what? They’re not on the board. Fresno would have been my second best bet there other than the Wolfpack. At 2.5 to 1, that might not be that crazy after all.
