Bubble News: Out Of Conference Showdown Day Edition

(Programming Note: I bet you’re drooling to see the first installment of Bowl Chronicles, amirite!?!? Look for it to post tomorrow morning. We have a bowl doubleheader beginning at 4:30, but Im not sure if the Bowl Chronicle debut will be one or two posts. We’ll see how long it goes. In the meantime, enjoy another rousing edition of Bubble News as the last big day of the out of conference season tips off tomorrow.)

The college hoops schedule is always pretty sparse during the holidays. Next to nothing is on tap during the week of finals and, for the most part, teams schedule long breaks for their kids with maybe a holiday cupcake or two sprinkled in. It’s all about resting and recharging before the grueling conference seasons begins. There will be an occasional interesting game in the days before league games begin over new year’s weekend, but otherwise its a collgee basketball break for the time being.

The major exception to this is tomorrow. A huge schedule is setup that ought to satiate most college hoop junkies. There are close to two dozen intersectional games tomorrow between ranked teams or tournament invitee contenders that will surely have lasting ramifications into March. For example, there are four bigtime games tipping off during the 2:00 window, so make sure you have multiple TVs fired up and fresh batteries in the remot. Its the one last big out of conference showdown blowout. One last chance to put a scalp of note on your resume. And, I am sure, there will be an investment opportunity or two along the way. If so, I’ll do a small post tomorrow, but as as of this morning there arent any lines to chew on. It’ll be the first thing I check in the morning, though, so dont worry, we’ll be all over it. In the meantime, here’s a chronological tour of some of the many games I’ll be keeping an eye on.

Michigan at Kansas, noon, ESPN……..Michigan could right a lot of wrongs with a win over Kansas tomorrow. Good luck with that. Frankly, if Michigan can avoid the KU student section rocking that eerie Rockchalk Jawhawk chant until the closing seconds, then it would a success, if only because that would mean the Wolverines would be in it at the end with even a shot at winning. They’d also cover the spread as I expect this line to be more closer to 20 points than single digits. Michigan’s hope is their season-long shooting slump corrects itself  and the Wolverines at least revert back to last year’s accuracy. Jawhawk observers feel that uber frosh Xavier Henry will prove the difference tomorrow, so keep an eye on whether or not the Wolverines can somehow throw him off his game. My take on the game and Michigan wont be unique. They dont have a ton of firepower and, as a result, need all the defense they can muster. But, they’re struggling to find an on court replacement for last season’s defensive MVP, CJ Lee (not to mention his two most likely replacements off the bench, David Merritt and Kelvin Grady). It takes a long time to grasp Beilein’s defense and become effective within that framework. Give a talent like Darius Morris some time and eventually it will click. Dont be surprised if this kid comes along this winter and becomes an all-freshmen player in the Big 10. And, with that, I’ll have enough shot of the Maize and Blue Koolaid and move on to the other top games.

North Carolina at Texas, 2:00, ESPN………..The marquee matchup of the day. A pair of top-10 teams. 5-star prospects all over the court. You know a handful of these players will be lottery picks in the next few NBA drafts. Perhaps a record crowd at the Jerry Dome in Dallas will be watching. You might as well too. This is a Final Four matchup in December. I dont need to say anything more. If you like sports, you’re interested in this game. Early lean: I think the Horns ease past the Heels. Not a comfy win, but I’d lay a bucket or a trey in chalk with them just for the fun of it, if the line is that small tomorrow morning.

Stanford at Northwestern, 2:00, BTN………This would be considered a bad loss for Northwestern. Yes, you heard that right. A team that has never made the NCAA tournament would lose style points losing to this perennial hoops power in Stanford. Welcome to Pac 10  Basketball 2010!  A loss by the Cats wouldnt be fatal to say the least, but it might cut deeper than a mere flesh wound. Right now, it seems like every basketball pundit is ready to spend the winter calling the Cats a tournament caliber club. But, a loss to Stanford might have some of those meme setters chasing other pursuits.

Mississippi State at Houston, 2:00, CSS……..If you’re looking for points, then Houston might be your team. The Cougs scored 99 points in a loss to Nevada and reached 100 points in their upset of Oklahoma en route to a third place placement in the Great Alaska Shootout. Since then, they havent really played anybody, so hosting a contender from an SEC team is a chance to make an at large start in advance of Conference USA play. While Memphis is expected to take a step back, opening the door for more CUSA contenders, its not like its suddenly going to become a three or four bid league. Pending further notice, its two at the most coming out of this league, so Houston really needs this resume win.  Frankly, so do the Bulldogs. Their sparkly 8-2 record is marred by bad losses to Rider and Richmond. The only thing positive of substance is their smackdown of UCLA last weekend in Anaheim. But what does that really get you these days? That’s like Utah boasting about beatintg Michigan in football in 2008. Anyway, including this game, the Bulldogs have three road games against feisty mid majors before league play begins as they go to San Diego on New Year’s Eve and are at Western Kentucky the first Monday of 2010. These games could cement the Dogs, especially since they are on the road. But, lets say they go 1-2. With those early bad losses, they could be bleeding as they enter SEC play.

UCLA at Notre Dame, 2:00, CBS……..The Irish need to avoid a bad loss to UCLA. UCLA, a bad loss? Did we warp back to the Steve Lavin era? In case you havent been paying attention, the Bruins are 3-6, with losses to Long Beach State, Portland and UC-Fullerton. In a game played in Anaheim, they were run out of the building from the opening tip by Mississippi State. The Irish just lost at home to Loyola Marymount, so to loss another game at Joyce to this drowning Bruin club would be a setback. Despite their guady 9-2 record coming into the game, the Irish arent garnering much support. Only five mocks have elevated them into their fields, but none of those have updated since their loss to the Lions this week. Add in a loss to the Bruins and the Irish become out of sight, out of mind. They would need to stand out in Big East play to jump into legit discussion. Given how they performed a year ago and that they bring less offense to the table this time around, I dont like their chances in that regard.

Xavier at Butler, 2:00, ESPN 2……..Fascinating game. The two premier mid-major powers meet. Both clubs have fixtures in the tournament for over 15 years, going from plucky upstart you dont want to draw in the first round to programs who expect Sweet 16 appearances who feel they’re Final Four contenders in the right year. Both clubs got off to less-than-expected starts, but both notched huge national TV wins a week ago with Butler edging by Ohio State and Xavier gutting out an emotional, physical double OT win over crosstown rival Cincinnati. For Xavier, the win was huge as a loss would have dropped them to 5-4 heading into this road game. After this, they still have games against Miami Ohio, LSU and at Wake Forest  during the next two weeks and a road trip to Florida in February. In the rapidly improving A10, the Musketeers cant afford too many more OOC losses and be insulated enough to earn an at large bid. As for Butler, they didnt have anything of note on their resume a week ago. But a win here gives them wins over Ohio State and Xavier since then. I dont see them winning less than 15 Horizon league regular season games, so a sweep this week over neighboring Ohio rivals would probably give them more than enough for an at large if something crazy happens in the Horizon Tournament.

Western Kentucky at Louisville, 4:00, ESPN2…….Did you know the Cards were struggling at 6-3? They have lossess this season at UNLV and at home against UNC Charlotte and Western Carolina. A loss today and another one in two weeks at Kentucky might put the Cards in a bad spot heading into Big East play. We saw what happened a year ago with Georgetown and Notre Dame as the league chewed them up and spit them out. You would have to begin to wonder if a Cards team with that many dents on its OOC resume wouldnt be primed for the same fate. Actually, arent we wondering that right now, given the Cards often paper tissue effort on the defensive end? I am. As for WKU, they will be a tough out. They have four of five starters back for a program that has won three NCAA tournament games the last two seasons. Road losses in SEC country to LSU and South Carolina were missed chances this year. A home loss to MVC dormant Indiana State is a black mark. The Hilltoppers got so momentum by thummping Vanderbilt on a nuetral floor one week ago and a road win at Louisville might be all it takes to guarantte an at large bid as long as they put up a guady Sun Belt Conference record for the third straight year.

Gonzaga vs Duke (New York City, 4:00, CBS……….If you’re a man of the people and have a heart, you pull for the Zags. If you’re a fascist, you’re a Duke booster in this one. Wait, too much good vs evil thinking? Well, whatever. I’m not a typical Duke hater, but I would take the ‘Over’ on number of fist pumps I wave if the Zags run them off the MSG floor. Both teams are good and fun to watch against top end competition. No reason to think this one doesnt have classic potential.

Tennessee at USC, 4:30, FSN…….If the Trojans manage to spring the upset, it opens a door for them. If they can eventually emerge as the legit head of the class in the mediocre Pac 10 their conference resumes becomes strong backup evidence to their case. But that involves many, many, many results in the future. Including actually getting a win here, which is a longshot at best. The Vols have too much firepower for every team in the Pac 10.

San Diego State at Arizona State, 6:30, no tv……As weak as the Pac 10 has been this year, this could end up being as quality a road win as any mid major might have against a BCS school. The Mountain West is shaping up to have an interesting winter and there will be discussion of as many as five teams making the Dance. The Aztecs will need wins like this one to make that case stronger and put their resume thicker into the mix. For the Devils, it would be their most impressive win of the season, maybe the most impressive win for the conference so far. Hey, the Pac 10 looks to be in shambles. A loss in a game like this makes the case for only 2-3 Pac 10 bids even louder and stronger.

Illinois at Georgia, 7:00, BTN…..Illinois has two losses that dont help their resume (Utha and Bradley and two wins that do (at Clemson, Vanderbilt).  Winning at Georgia wont necessarily help them, but a loss could begin to downgrade them off mock brackets. It would certainly make the road game at Missouri and nuetral site game against Gonzaga over the next two weeks all the more integral for their eventual resume.

Temple at Seton Hall, 7:00, no tv…….I wont lie. I dont know much about Temple. And, I know less about Seton Hall. I do know they are a combined 16-2.  The Owls made news earlier this week by upsetting Big 5 rival Villanova. So, they’re on proverbial letdown alert. They’ve also played a typically challenging Temple schedule. In addition to the win over Nova, they have wins over Penn State, Virginia Tech and Siena. They’re losses were on the road to Georgetown and St John’s, who are combined 16-1. They play Kansas two weeks from Saturday. Gaudy record plus quality OOC slate equals near lock for an at large so long as they dont choke during the A10 slate. The Owls schedule is in stark contrast to what Seton Hall has seen so far. They just scored 134 points against run and gun VMI and thats pretty much their most impressive win to date. A win today would help, but the Hall’s March fate will rest entirely with how well they do in Big East. That’s not good. Here’s how that part of slate begins:  WVA, S’Cuse, at Uconn, Cincy, at Gtown, Louisville, and Pitt. There’s also a road game at tricky Virginia Tech right in the middle of that. The Pirates dont have any losses right now, but they could have 7-8 defeats by the end of January and it wouldnt come as much of a shock.

Missouri State at St. Louis, 8:00, no tv…….I put this game on here mostly because of my longtime interest in following Missouri Valley hoops. Honestly, I dont think its that much less of a conference than the Big 10 in a lot of years. The last few years, however, have gone the other way and the league has been top heavy with only a couple teams in contention. The league after years of multi bids into the Dance have become a one-bid league. I dont know if we’re reverting back to the old norm this season or not, but it does appear that the balance within the league has returned and that any one of severl teams could win the league. Are 8-0 Missouri State part of that mix? Yeah, sure why not. Despite an 11-win season last year, MSU led or was tied at the half in seven of their last nine games. That momentum has carried over. Other than a win over Tulsa, there’s not much on the resume. So, I am intrigued to see if they have chops to get by what will surely be an ugly wrestling match against Rick Majerus’ Billikens this weekend. Also, one of the Big 10’s all-time greats Cuonzo Martin of Purdue is their head coach and I like keeping tabs on him.

Texas Tech at Wichita State, 8:00, no tv………Would someone please start poking holes in Texas Tech’s resume?!?!  They’re unbeaten at 9-0 and they longer their record looks so sparkly, the more often we will be subjected to fellow announcers pressing their now colleague Bobby Knight to fawn over his son’s team. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, but we’re going to hear the same story over and over again about how Daddy Bobby lectured son Patrick about D in the offseason. I’ve already heard Knight tell the tale on three broadcasts already this season. Please, somebody drop a big L on this team that spins this train out on a losing streak. Wichita State, you’re 9-1, beating guys by about 19 points per game and playing in front of your buzzed up crowd. You are just the team I’m looking for. Go. Now. Do it.

Kansas State at Alabama, 8:30, CSS……..Kansas State is a fun team to watch. They have a pair of dynamite scorers in Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen. They play aggressive, end-to-end defense and have a controlled, up tempo game. This is a legit Big 12 darkhorse. The league will be filled with teams with guady records when conference play starts. Some pretenders will be exposed, but KSU wont be among that class. If their third place finish in the Pureto Rico Classic where they earned a win over Dayton wasnt impressive, their throttlings of Washington State, Xavier, UNLV so far this month were. Traveling to Alabama is trickier than it looks. The Tide own wins over Baylor and Michigan from the Old Spice and nearly upset powerful Purdue last week on this same court. The SEC might double its NCAA entrants this year from three to six and if they do, expect the Tide, especially if they bag this one, to be among the new invites.

Creighton at New Mexico, 9:00, MTN…………Hey Creighton! As a Michigan fan, let me pass along a little holiday message on behalf of my brethern in the fan base. Ok, here goes: START WINNING FREAKING GAMES!!!!! Man, its bad enough that Michigan’s won-loss record isnt good, but its just kicking us when we’re down seeing the Bluejays, typically a MVC power, stumbled to a 4-5 start. They have a chance to jumpstart their season on the road against unbeaten New Mexico. At 11-0 the Lobos have an interesting resume. They have three true road wins, but its not exactly against Murderer’s Row: at New Mexico State, at Hawaii and at San Diego. But, they have eye opening home wins over Cal and Texas A/M, two BCS league teams who will live on the correct side of the bubble most of the season. In addition to Creighton, they host Texas Tech and Dayton before New Year’s Day. This team will be hard to keep out of the tournament if they get another win or two before league season begins.

Portland at Washington, 10:00, no tv……a compelling late night game between the favorite in the most beleaguered conference in the land and the early season mid major darling who might be hearing the opening chimes of the midnight bell. Lets talk about the latter first. Portland was one of the stars of Feast Week, making a run to the finals of a stacked Anaheim Classic getting scalps of UCLA and Minnesota along the way. Suddenly the WCC was looking like a sure multiple bid league. Since then, they’ve lost to Portland State and Idaho. Given how truly non impressive the UCLA win is in retrospect, a loss here might just push Portland out of at large talk as quickly as they entered the discussion. As for UW, somebody from the Pac 10 will get into the field, right. Well, yeah. But, if the league continutes to lose games like this one in the waning days of the OOC season, then we can can begin to have legit talk this winter of the unthinkable: A BCS league getting just a single bid into the dance.