Two of the next three nights will feature NFL showdowns with both playoff and historic implications. Indianapolis travels to Jacksonville tonight while on Saturday night Dallas goes to New Orleans. Both games will be on the NFL Network.
In the AFC game, the Jags can go a long way towards securing a wild card birth with a win. It’s their final home game of the season, so a loss means they’d be forced to scramble for the postseason in front of unfriendly crowds. In the NFC, you dont need to look all that closely to see the noose tightening around Cowboys Coach Wade Phillips’ neck. The Boys remain in good shape to make the NFC tournament, but they need to start winning or else eventullay see the field pass them up. Dallas has lost two games to open December so all the talk is about another late season collapse. Nothing like playing the best team in the conference on the road when you’re trying to stop the bleeding. For the chalk in these games, its about maintaining their holds on home field advantage for the playoffs. Of course, for both the Colts and Saints there is also something more hisotric out there to chase: the elusive perfect season.
I decided several weeks ago that I would pull for both the Colts and Saints to run the table and meet each other as 18-0 behemoths in the Super Bowl. Mainly because it would rid us forever of genuflecting at the altar of the 1972 Dolphins. And, if both are 18-0 headed into that game, maybe, just maybe we wont have to deal with two weeks worth of Mercury Morris poetry. America wins in that scenario, people.
Thanks to the wonderful world of sports gambling, there are plenty of opportunities out there for you to win individually as the Colts and Saints attempt this parallel march towards perfection and the NFL record book. For example, you can wager that the Colts and Saints will play each in the Super Bowl, regardless of record, at a payout of 1.8 to 1. As far as Super Bowl matchups go, its considerable chalk. Vikings vs Colts at 3.5 to 1 and Saints vs Chargers aat 5 to 1 are the next in line as favored odds go for possible Super Bowl matchups. The longshots on this board are Cowboys-Ravens and Cowboys-Broncos, both of which net you 300 to 1 odds. Sadly, last year’s defending champs, and my personal favorite team, the Steelers arent even on the board anywhere. FML.
Getting back to good teams that are playing well, lets focus on the odds of the Colts and Saints running the table. All odds are per sportsbook.com.
Do you think either team can go 16-0? The Saints are actually favored to do so, meaning the odds are steeper and more expensive should you want to back them on 16-0 as opposed to betting they will lose one of their final three games. Odds for Yes the Saints will go 16-0 are -120, meaning to win $100 you must wager $120. Conversely, No is just at -110 odds, not much cheaper, but technically it does make it the underdog line. Oddsmakers dont think the public will have much faith in the Cowboys, Bucs or Panthers to derail this train. Plus, with Minnesota hot on the Saints heels for the top overall seed, the Saints may have to play out the entire string with their first teamers.
That’s in stark contrast to the Colts, who may begin as soon as this evening to rest the bones of their wary starting unit. The odds of them going 16-0 reflect the very real possibility that them doing may well rest in the hands of QB Curtis Painter, not Peyton Manning. You can still get a solid, if not spectacular payout of 2 to 1 betting the Colts to go 16-0. However, a no bet will cost you -260, which is fairly heavy juice. Its not weighted that way because of their closing kick of Jaguars, Jets and Bills. It has everything to do with the Colts pretty much having their place in the field and seed all sewn up and them turning weeks 16 and 17 into exhibition matches.
The intriguing action might be on future bets on them going the full distance undefeated, including the playoffs, and ending the year as Super Bowl Champs.
For the Colts, you can catch 6 to 1 odds on them going 19-0 and raising the Lombardi Trophy, while a No bet needs to be wagered at -1000. With New Orleans, the payouts and juice arent as high. For a 19-0 Saints team, you can 4.5 to 1 odds, while betting no is “merely’ at -700.
How about them both playing each other as 18-0 heavyweights with the winner finally usurping the 1972 Dolphins from their arrogant throne? You can bet this happening at 9 to 1 odds right now. Meanwhile, fading this proposition costs -1500. If you think its outlandish and foolish that we could ever have an 18-0 team fight another 18-0 in the Super Bowl and want to make a quick $100, just pony up $1,500 with your corner Book. I mean, what could wrong? Historically speaking that bet would look like a winner, but man that is a lot to wager up front to win so little. Is it worth the risk?
I do think grabbing the 9/1 odds on the dream Superbowl or odds on either of them going 19-0 might be worth the price of admission. Here’s why. For either team to win the Super Bowl, the odds arent that great as far as payouts go. The Colts are 2.25 to 1, while the Saints are 2.5 to 1. Yet, you can get them at 6/1 or 4.5/1 respectively to go 19-0. In the Saints case, do they really have a whole lot of legit hurdles to clear before making the postseason without a blemish? Personally, I would be stunned if they were less than 16-0 when their first playoff game rolls around Once the playoffs begin, its not as much a bet on them going 19-0 anymore as it is just for winning it all.
Why not bet them now to go 19-0, cross your fingers that they can navigate the rest of the year against the lightweights? If they do, then you have much better payout odds of them winning the Super Bowl than you would if you bet them just to win the Super Bowl. And, with a better payout looming, if the 19-0 bet is still alive come playoff time, you can hedge the bet with either the Vikings, Chargers or somebody else and still end up winning more on the Saints and Colts than you would now by placing a future bet on them now to just win the Super Bowl. Also, taking that 9/1 play on them both making it to the Super Bowl undefeated seems like a fun thing to try.
I dont know. I’m just thinking out loud. These odds will likely disappear over the weekend as the games play out. And, surely they will be altered when rereleased next week. I’m not sold on anything, but I could see the value in getting behind these teams to run the table. Oddsmakers have caught up to them on a week to week basis and you could make a case its the only way to really make money and find value with these clubs right now.
Of course, just writing this post might unleash enough unharnessed jamie mac jinx powers that the Colts down in flames tonight, making most of this moot. Consider yourself warned and bet safely.
