So, I take it everyone out there did the right thing and put money on Texas, plus the points, over Alabama in the BCS Title Game? While the game remains 24 days away and there’s plenty of time to break it down even more, the deciding factor really took place Saturday night, when they awarded Alabama tailback Mark Ingram the Heisman Trophy. It may have been an historical first for Tide fans, but it also doomed their hopes, cursed now with the Heisman Jinx.
The college regular season has its Coulter/Krugman Curse in the Blog Poll. The Bowl Season’s annual spell of doom is the Heisman Jinx. The winner’s team rarely lives up to expectation. They’re a good team to bet against when their bowl game does get around to kicking off. Did you know that Heisman Winner teams are just 8-25-1 against the spread, a meager 27-percent success rate. Hey, this goes back to 1974 and Archie’s Griffin’s first of back-to-back trophies. Needless to say, the Buckeyes lost both Rose Bowls outright as favorites to the Pac 10 champ and a legend was born. This has pretty much incorporated my whole life, so I could have Quantum Leap’ed it at anytime and basically uttered ‘bet against the Heisman Winner’ and looked like a golden prophet from the future.
What Ingram is doing is fast becoming the norm. That being, taking the Heisman burden with him into a BCS National Title Game. He will be the eighth one to do it this decade. His predecessors were not not profitable, going 1-6 ATS. Only USC’s wood shedding of Oklahoma behind 2004 winner Matt Leinhart proved to be a winning bet. The other six not only failed against the spot, but didn’t win the game either. Not a winner, but no cover even in the lot. Four failed as favorites, the roll Ingram’s Tide are in. Let’s take a tour of the title game damage left in the wake of winning the Heisman.
Chris Weinke, the 2000 award winner, continued the Heisman jinx at the start of the decade, by leading his Noles to a whopping 2 points in a 13-2 loss to Oklahoma in the championship game. Eric Crouch (2001) might have peed his pants watching The U 30 for 30 documentary on ESPN the other night. Jason White (2003) could barely get first downs against Saban’s LSU team. Reggie Bush (2005)? BOOM VINCE YOUNG’ED. Troy Smith (2006) LOL. And, last year, Sam Bradford was also Gator Bait and failed to cover +5 in a 24-14 loss in the final game.
Here is the full list, going back to 1974, with the closing line, with your result had you bet againt the winner of the famed stiff-armed trophy.
1974 SO CALIF 18 – Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 – Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 – Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 – Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 – Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 – So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 – So Caro (George Rogers) 9 – 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 – So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 – Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 – 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 – Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 – Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 – Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 – Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 – Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 – Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 – Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 – Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 – 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 – Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 – Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 – Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 – Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 – 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 – Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 – Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 – Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 – Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 – Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 – Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 – 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 – Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 – Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 – So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 – So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 – Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 – Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER
2008 FLORIDA 24 – Oklahoma (Sam Bradford) 14 +5 WINNER
That’s some compelling history for Ingram to overcome heading into the title game. Despite that, winning the trophy and the subsequent Heisman Jinx has not altered the odds. The Tide are holding firm as 5-point chalk and there’s been no line movement since the award presentation Saturday night.
Speaking off odds and bowl games, the whole extraganza begins on Saturday with a doubleheader of low tier bowls. Am I interested? Ah, yes please. There will tons of coverage–and picks, natch–throughout the bowl season. Last year, I did a popular Bowl Chronicle series in the Diary Section at MGoBlog. I preivewed each game, with picks against the spread, throughout the bowl blowout. I had fun, made a little cash and wrote a lot. It was a blast. I will be doing the same thing this year, but all of it will be featured here at the JCB. The Bowl Chronicle posts will appear the afternoon (or morning if there are day dames) of the game in question. Be excited, reader, as I am excited to be putting these posts together again.
I am also taking part in a confidence pool during bowl season. The stakes are pretty high as I sure the entire city of To, er, I mean, uh, El Paso, yeah thats the ticket. I am sure the whole town of El Paso in involved given the heavy payout (it’s in the thousands, I am told, for the winner). It’s just a ‘pick ‘em’ pool, no point spreads involved. But, we do pick winners and then rate them with points 1-34, from least to most confident. Those picks are due in a couple of days, and I will post my card here and we can skewer it throughout the bowl games.
When taking a glimpse at the bowl games this morning, I am struck by how little line movement there has been so far. Betting spreads have been available for a week, but other than a half point here and a half point there, we havent seen an inordinate amount of one-sided action steaming lines a particular way. There is one exception, that being the Fresno/Wyoming New Mexico Bowl. After opening up at Fresno -10.5, the line steadily climbed to where its now FSU -12.5. The New Mexico Bowl is the first of the season. I dont know if college bettors are hard up without any games that they’ve focused on the first one, or if its just bizarre coincidence. But, we’ve seen heavy Fresno action early on, driving the price up. I wonder if those folks know tha Pat Hill is 0-4 in his last four bowl games against non-BCS foes. Regardless, other than this game, most of the spreads are still where they opened.
Otherwise, I have been pretty quiet on the posting front last week. I was mentally hungover from those long ACC/Big 10 Challenge and Championship Weekend posts. Besides, there wasnt much going on, anyway, and I took a break. But, no more. From here on out, expect daily postings as we head into bowl season and a winter of conference play in hoops. In the immeidate days. when there isnt a bowl game or ensuing topic to chew on, we’ll focus on the NFL stretch drive and review what we’ve seen so far on the college hardwood while looking ahead to the rest of the regular season.
Until then, Cheers! And, dont forget to bet against the Heisman Trophy winner.
I don't know if any of the other Trophy winners had a very good backup, just in case Mr Heisman struggled. I still like Bama alot statistics be damned!!
First post but love the site!!
I don't know if any of the other Trophy winners had a very good backup, just in case Mr Heisman struggled. I still like Bama alot statistics be damned!!
First post but love the site!!
You can go back further. As a lifelong Auburn fan, I will always remember Pat Sullivan winning the Heisman in 1971, back when they awarded it before the season was even over. Sullivan wins it during the off-week betweent the Georgia and Alabama games, then Auburn loses to Alabama 31-7 and was blown out by Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, after having been 9-0 and in the top 5.
You can go back further. As a lifelong Auburn fan, I will always remember Pat Sullivan winning the Heisman in 1971, back when they awarded it before the season was even over. Sullivan wins it during the off-week betweent the Georgia and Alabama games, then Auburn loses to Alabama 31-7 and was blown out by Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, after having been 9-0 and in the top 5.
2007 MICHIGAN 41 – Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER
MIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIICH!
2007 MICHIGAN 41 – Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER
MIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIICH!