Monthly Archives: December 2009

[note](Programming note: Bowl Chronicles will be done in multiple parts today. This is the final part of the day: Peach Bowl, Hokies vs Vols. I also downgraded the Minny pick to a single unit. The previous three  parts focusing on the Armed Forces, Sun, Texas and Insight Bowls are below. I’ll see everybody in 2010. Happy New Year. Be safe out there tonight. Oh, and I woke up chanting SUUUUUHHHHHH!!!! this morning. Nothing like easy money to fire you up. Lets keep it rolling today)[/note]

PEACH BOWL: TENNESSE VS VIRGINIA TECH. LINES, VT -5, O/U  49

This game makes me chuckle. In one corner, you have a money team of mine over the years, the Virginia Tech Hokies. I make no bones that I have a fondness for this team and root for it every week, even when I havent invested in the Hokies. In the other corner, a team I mock and love to bet against. Its been a hobby, cottage industry really, of mine to bet against Tennessee in big spots. For much of the decade, the Vols have been on the downslide, a Brand Name in label only. And, I generally rooted against them, even when I dont have money on the other side. Its hard to explain, yet typical of the college football fan experience, but sometimes you just always roots for certain teams and against certain others.

I’m chuckling because that hasnt really been the case this season. Nor, will it be tonight.

The Hokies let me down in the opener against Alabama. In their dramatic win over Nebraska, they won by just a point, falling short of the spread. They did blow out Miami, earning some back, but fell hard against Georgia Tech and UNC to close out October. They just werent coming through for me, and I was nowhere to be found when they closed the season with four double digit wins and covers to close the season. In my defense, the last three came against the worst of the ACC and the Hokies had shown little to assume they could cover heavy chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win..

The Vols, meanwhile, looked like the same old Vols when they were upset at home as double digit favorites against UCLA in Week 2. But, then something funny happened. The Vols began outperforming the betting public’s expectation, beginning with staying in range of winning outright over Florida. They hung with Bama, losing on a blocked kick, and blewout East rivals Georgia and South Carolina who now suddenly find themselves behind the Vols in the pecking order. They went 3-1 ATS when catching points this season and for the most part saved their best for when nobody expected them to compete.

This year, at least, I’m bullish on the Vols, not on the Hokies. I expect the investing patterns of the season to continue in this one. The Hokies will struggle to cover against a quality team on its schedule. The Vols will rise and play up, keeping it closer than the experts expect. Read more »

For my fellow Michigan fans, today’s Humanitarian Bowl between Bowling Green and Idaho offers a chance to see first hand the Maize and Blue’s foe in Week 4 of the 2010 season in September. I can sum up your armchair scouting report in one sentence: Thank God, Freddie Barnes wont be on the team anymore. Or Tyler Sheehan, for that matter. Alright, so thats two sentences, but you get the point.

That game next season would be on everyone’s preseason ‘Upset Alert’ list with the explosive QB/WR combo of Sheehan and Barnes. Barnes is a legit NFL prospect and looks to follow Greg Jennings path of MAC stardom to starting NFL wideout. Michigan Stadium can rest easy this offseason knowing that when the Falcons come to town, those weapons will no longer be in Coach Dave Clawsen’s arsenal. Getting back to the present, the chore today for Sheehan and Barnes in their Falcon Swan Song is to try and hang point for point with the  WAC’s Idaho Vandals and their high scoring offense.

HUMANITARIAN BOWL: BOWLING GREEN VS IDAHO. LINES, IDAHO -1, O/U 68

This is a game for the college fantasy football nuts. Do you think we’ll see some guady stats tonight or what? With the Vandals you have the 10th ranked total offense in the land. They’ve gained over 5,000 yards this season, mostly on the arm of QB Nathan Enderlee who has engineered the nation’s 11th ranked passing attack and regularily puts up a stat line that includes a YPA above 10. They run the football well with three different backs in the 5 ypc range, paced by DeMaundray Woolridge and his 12 touchdowns. Bowling Green does not have the same impressive numbers from top to bottom, but with the Sheehan/Barnes combo, they have the 8th ranked passing attack in the land. Sheehan has gone over the 300 yard mark in passing in eight games this year. And, Barnes numbers alone would have leading your fantasy league as he’s booked 1,500 yards and 18 scores this season. Neither team packs much in the way of a shutdown defense, so dont expect a low tally of points, stats or fantasy numbers. They’re playing on the Blue Turf in Boise, and it’s going to look a lot like the pinball machine type games the hometown Broncos play. Except maybe a lot less one sided as this one ought to remain in doubt well into the fourth quarter.

If you were to begin handicapping this game based on how well the teams were playing to end the season, you have to like Bowling Green. The Falcons climbed out of an early season hole, won their final four games and notched this bowl invite after missing out on the postseason a year ago. They won six of their last seven games, earned 5 of seven covers and closed scorching hot on a 4-0 SUATS run in November.

The Vandals, meanwhile, saw their hot start fade. They began the season by going 6-1 and in mid October had covered the spread in all seven games. They became the flag bearer for the JCB’s own Power Poll which debuted this season. But, its been a long time since then. They won just one of their final five games. They didnt cover the spread in any of those games. In fact, they havent covered the spread since October 17. During the late season fade, they allowed 52 or more points three times and permitted an even 50 points per game during their 1-4 close to the year. Read more »

Was anyone still paying attention to the closing minutes of yesterday afternoon’s Independence Bowl? Georgia had all but tucked away the game, but a flurry of late points after the game had been decided made for some dramatic moments in Over/Under betting. The fact the Over was even in play was remarkable considering the total set was in the mid-60s and the teams played a scoreless game until 25 minutes of game clock had ticked away  The game was on pace for 42 points at the half and 51 points after three quarters, so it looked like an easy win for Under bettors. Then, four fourth quarter touchdowns, including a pair in the final four minutes.

I was fascinated with the total points number in this one throughout the day. When I sat down to work on Bowl Chronicles, I checked the lines and the total was 67 points. When I posted on the blog and went back to the Book to make a play on the side, I noticed the total play had tumbled all the way down to 65.5 points. That’s a lot of late money on the Under to push it down a whole 1.5 points during betting the day of the game.

For most of the game, it looked like easy money. Until all those late garbage touchdowns. But, when UGA scored to make it 44-14, they missed the extra point, so 8 points was still needed in the final three minutes of play to hit the Over. Surely that killed it, right? Not quite. The Aggies, after spending much of the second half tripping over themselves,  finally put together a scoring drive and put one in the end zone. For no apparent reason, they went for two. Even though they missed, I am sure a lot of bettors at least gave Aggie Coach Mike Sherman credit for having their gambling backs. Maybe all the former Franchione newsletter subscribers backed the Over and word got down to Sherman? I dont know.

Regardless, the conversion failed. Under wins. But there must have been some steamed sportsbooks across the Vegas strip as the closing minutes played out. The House had the Over, it had to made folks behind the scenes at the Books hot under the collar to see the Over go up in flames thanks to a pair of missed PATs in the final minutes of the game. 

Hey, I can relate. No, I didnt take the total last night. I did so poorly last year on Over/Under totals during bowl season that I resolved to make no plays on those numbers. But, I have lost the last two nights of bowl season. UK failed by a single point and the Aggies last night redefined special teams disaster en route to breaking open a close game into blowout loss. Twice this bowl season, I’ve peaked at +1.9 Units only to knocked back down again. The damage the last two nights have put my current bowl record at 5-6, -0.3 Units. Had you been betting to $100 on each of my plays, you’d be down a mean 30 bucks. We’re a third of way through, so we’re frustrated over here, but hardly in panic mode. I always get one hot streak per bowl season. If it hits now, at least I’m not really in a hole I need to climb out of first.

We have a doubleheader today, including a nightcap where the Big 10 makes in debut appearance of this postseason. So, lets get after it. The first game between Temple and UCLA begins at 4:30 with the Badger/Cane nightcap kicking off in primetime at 8:00. Here’s hoping the night can deliver some winners. Read more »

Bowl season kicks into an extra gear today with the Independence Bowl. For the first time this bowl season, a pair of traditional, college football Brand Names meet head-to-head in the sort of regional matchups that should be more of the essence of bowl season. Of course, Brand Name teams arent synonomous with Elite teams and that’s what makes today’s game between Texas A/M and Georgia all the more intriguing.

Independence Bowl: Georgia vs Texas A/M.  Lines, UGA -7, O/U 67

The Aggies Brand Name has, to be kind, dulled throughout this entire decade. They’ve missed out on the postseason in four of the last nine seasons, including last season’s 4-8 debacle in Mike Sherman’s debut season. Their return to the bowl calendar this season hasnt been an obvious statement that announces that their back either. They got to bowl eligibility, but only defeated two fellow bowlers along the way. They never had that signature win that made you ever take notice of them. The pushed Texas deep into the fourth quarter on Thanksgiving night, which, if anything, showcased their explosive offense and spoke more to their potential than their current abilities. Beating the Georgia Bulldogs from the mighty SEC could signal a new Big 12 contender next fall.

Georgia’s own Brand Name has taken hits in recent seasons. They were suppoed to be national championship contenders a year ago, but never ended up being a factor in the race. This season, they had all sorts of defensive breakdowns and had loads of troubles trying to replace the production on offense from some departing stars. The net result was a 5-loss season, three within the SEC East, and an overall sense that the program was more than just a step below the current and emering contenders in the league. Three defensive coaches have been let go since the regular season ended, a telltale sign that things were spinning out of control, even for the non rebuilding side of the team which still had pretty good numbers on paper. This is still very much a program in transition from the Stafford/Moreno era and would love to make a statement on their own headed into the offseason.

They may very well to that tonight, but I am sticking with the underdog in this game. I took the 7-points last night and painfully came up a point short. I’ll give it another spin tonight even though the game, like last night’s, looks like a mismatch when just consider the public perception of both programs. I give the Aggies a bit of a motivational edge. They dont give a rip their bowl game is in Shreveport. They’re happy to be here. Georgie has been hearing all month people whining about an inglorious bowl destination. I think the Aggies will have more focus than the Dawgs.

I cant help but think back to last year’s bowl game when UGA wasnt sharp enough to put away Michigan State until late. There was some yawn factor going on with that and this spot is even more obscure. And, Sparty was led by the innacurate Brian Hoyer. He couldnt generate the offense to take advantage of UGA’s lacksadaisicalness. That will not be a problem today for the Aggies and QB Jerod Johnson. The Junior QB emerged this season as a bigtime playmaker, accounting for over 3,700 yards and 36 touchdowns. He gets balanced production from a pair of running backs and five pass catching targets all with somewhere between 30-45 catches. In addition to Johnson, seven different Aggies scored at least 3 touchdowns. This is the 5th ranked total offense in the nation, 14th ranked scoring offense and they tallied 31 or more points in 10 games this season, six of them in Big 12 games. The Aggies might not be winning they like used to in the 1980s and 1990s, but at least this season, their offense was exciting to watch.

I dont trust Georgia’s defense, which was vulnerable all season to the big play, to hold down this offense and take it out of its game. I think we can bank on the Aggies taking a strong run at another 30-plus point game. With a QB at the top of his game, who doesnt kill his team with turnovers, with many options to throw to, are the Aggies the type of team Georgia needs to play right now after wholesale defensive coaching changes. Breakdowns are still going to happen because I doubt everyone is on the same page right now. There just hasnt been time. Read more »