NIT Royalty convenes at the Charleston Classic this weekend. The lead participants include three of the last five NIT winners with South Carolina and Penn State. Both clubs, along with two others in this field, played in the NIT last year, with Penn State winning it all. While it might be the least juiced field of all the Feast Week action, the winner would have too feel good about itself and its increased chances of leaving the NIT in the dust and playing in the real Tournament come March.
Where are the resume wins, you say? Well, the winner of this field will probably notch two wins that would be in the top-100 when its all said and done. Not to mention those wins will likely come against teams that will be fighting to be noticed on the Bubble Line come late winter. South Carolina, Miami, Penn State and Davidson spent much of last season on the Bubble, yet none of them had the overall resume–despite some heady league wins–to grab an at-large bid. All were shipped to the NIT.
Consider Penn State’s situation. Let’s say they win this field. Adding that to the six cupcakes on the slate, that’s nine wins with other non league swing games yet to be factored. They host Virginia and Temple and travel to Virginia Tech in December. Add wins in two of three of those games, thats an 11-1 mark heading into the league. A break even mark in the Big 10 would give them 20 wins and I dont think any team with 20 wins from that conference will get snubbed this year. Be it Penn State or not, somebody can begin to pen a quality resume by taking the trophy.
The key to this whole tournament is which club has replaced critical cogs from a year ago the best this early in the season. Miami has to replace sharp shooter Jack McClintock, whose scoring dragged the Canes too many a win the last two seasons. Davidson has to replace Steph Curry, one of the game’s biggest stars in recent years. Penn State won the NIT last year with a three-headed scoring monster, but two of those heads, Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley, have rolled on. South Carolina has to replace its second leading scorer and best three point marksmen.
All four of these clubs just missed the NCAA field last season, and those departures are the primary reason there is little buzz or expectation right now that these clubs can take the next step this year. We’ll see this weekend which team comes to the table with those missing pieces rebuilt. Whoever does should be last man standing come Sunday night and, in the process, recalibrate their eventual postseason hopes.
Predictions to make me look smart or stupid at Thanksgiving dinner
South Carolina wins this. Like some of the other contenders in this field, they have to replace something important lost from a year ago. Unlike those teams, the Gamecocks dont need to reshape their image as a result. They didnt lose their best player, like Miami and Davidson did, and they weren’t one-man shows like those teams often were a year ago. While Penn State returns its top scorer, he has to gell yet with a whole new cast of characters on the court. The Gamecocks have their best player from a year ago in Devan Downey and three other starters return. They return a lot of firepower from one of the SEC’s best offenses a year ago. This might be the third best team in the league, behind Kentucky and Tennessee, if the defense and rebounding step up. But, its their returning offense that gets them the trophy in this event.
Penn State will get to the finals. I called for Penn State to win two games in this field earlier in the week. Today, I take the extra step and project them into the finals. They will trounce UNC Wilmington, one of the worst teams in the Colonial, and have enough to get by Miami in the semifinals. Talor Battle will easily win a spot on the All-Tournament Field. Battle’s do-everything game will be more than enough to get them into the finals. It will be interesting this weekend to see what kind of team they’ve rebuilt around Battle after the departures of Pringle and Cornley. Dont forget, PSU won 10 games in the Big 10 a year ago and in Battle they have a player-of-the-year caliber player every bit as talented as Manny Harris and Evan Turner. If they can develop around him, don’t discount PSU coming out of the Big 10 when March rolls around. They’ll make a small November statement this weekend.
The sleeper in this field is LaSalle. And, no, that’s not a cop out since that’s who South Carolina plays first. What can I say? In LaSalle, however, South Carolina does have the hardest first round game of the four opening day favorites. I think the Explorers play South Carolina tough, but they shred through the loser’s bracket to get two wins out of the weekend. The have a lot of seniors on this team and their four best players return from a year ago off a team that went 18-13. This team could be a big mover in the A-10 standings this season.
