Sweet Sixteen in November: Zags/Spartans
It’s a Sweet Siteen Game in mid-November. Truthfully, since Gonzaga seems to settle around the 8/9 line in the smattering of brackets out there doing presason forecasting, its more like a second round game. Whatever. It’s still college hoops royalty meeting to give us a healthy appetizer of high stakes basketball in the early days of the long season.
It’s business as usual for the Spartans. They’re juiced for another run. Kailon Lucas, Raymar Morgan and a slew of athletic guards and forwards backing them up. They’re the defending Big 10 regular season champs. Appeared in another Final Four. Ho hum, just another banner season in East Lansing. With buckets of talent returning, they’ll simply roll out on the court and repeat last year’s success, right?
They have the talent to do it, for sure. But the temperature is changing around the Big 10. Michigan State might be the standard-bearer for the league, but its place as the stand-alone lead dog may be in doubt. The threats around them are at their highest. How will MSU handle the growing hoops renaissance in Ann Arbor? Can we say MSU is the league’s most talented team with Purdue, the league’s tournament champ, returning more intact than MSU? The Spartans have defined Big 10 hoops for the better part of a decade, but it’s been during a period of lull and malaise–with some obvious exception like the 2005 Illini–during the conference. It was MSU and nobody else. How well will MSU wear the target with the Big 10 at its best in the last 15 years?
They cruised against Florida Gulf Coast in the opening game over the weekend, but they will make their opening statement for the season tonight against the brand name Zags. Watching the Spartans tonight, here’s whats on my mind.
What’s up with Morgan’s ankle? He didnt play in the opener. After losing much of last year due to health issues, is another season about to be derailed by injury? Or was leaving him out of the game over the weekend merely precautionary?
What kind of game does Delvon Roe have? His career has been held back on account of injury. Now, he has a concussion. How many minutes will he play and how has he progressed. Does he have another level? Can he play without getting in foul trouble?
Which other Spartans can pick up the scoring to support Lucas? Can Korie Lucious and Chris Allen become consistent scorers tu supplement the Big 10 Player of the Year candidate?
Is Derrick Nix really on the verge of being a legit rebounding threat in the Big 10?
Will the Spartans unveil this aggressive press they’ve allegedly been practicing throughout camp?
We’ll find out some answers tonight against a Gonzaga team that has plenty of its own questions. This is the first real test for the Bulldogs without longtime anchors like Austin Daye, Josh Heytvelt, Micah Downs and Jeremy Pargo. That core paced the Zags to a ton of wins and national respect over the last several seasons. How will they look without them? Zag Bloggers are stoked the squad is playing such a high profile game, even if they’re not sure what to expect out of their home team.
They should have a good backcourt with Matt Baudin and Steven Gray. But, outside of that the rest of the roster didnt even combine for five percent of the team’s total scoring. None of them had ever started a game coming into this season. Can Baudin increase his scoring? Can Gray go from sixth man to starter? Can Demetri Goodson, the hero of last year’s tournament win over WKU, step in at PG after a solid, albeit very parttime, showing as a freshman backing up Pargo? Is Robert Sucre ready to be a legit big man, or will he get swamped by the bevy of big bodies the Spartans can throw at him?
This a roster full of sophomores and freshmen. With seven guys from last year’s regular rotation having moved on, several from this group have to emerge in order for Gonzaga to stay relevant nationally this season. The one guy to key on his Elias Harris. A 20-year-old freshmen is a German national and has a nice physical, yet athletic game around the rim. He is what the scouts call a great leaper. In limited action in the opener against Mississippi Valley State, Harris looked like the Zags best player. Does this translate tonight against a major step up in competition?
If you put any stock into scrimmages, however, the Zags have already stepped up their game. Earlier in the month, they took Texas down to the wire in a scrimmage with the Harris kid looking even more like the real deal.
They cant take too long to mesh together a new team. As always, the Zags face an ardous schedule. But, if the new players in new roles take too long to gell, they are going to get crushed in a lot of the November and December games. And, it could paint themselves into a tricky corner come March where it could be automatic bid, or else for them.
We’ll find out tonight, against the #2 team in the nation, just how far along the Zags are. Are they rebuilding or reloading? There were plenty of ‘ugh’ moments in their opener against Mississippi State, despite eventually winning the game by 18 points. If there was some shakiness going on then, how are there not going to be problems tonight at the Breslin Center?
Do I have a pick? I do, just not a binding one. The Spartans are more experienced and playing at home. They should get a win. Will they cover the -11 pointspread? We’ll see about that, and I am not making any comittments either way on that one.
Historical trends suggest a big Sparty win. Michigan State is 24-9-1 ATS against teams with a better than .600 winning percentage, they’ve covered seven of eight against out of conference foes and are 11-3-1 ATS after a blowout win of more than 20 points. Gonzaga, meanwhile, has not been profitable at all when they venture out of the confines of the conference. In the last four seasons, the Zags are just 25-36 in non-league games.
Other notes of interest:
Kansas hosts Memphis (KU -11.5) tonight in a rematch of the 2008 championship game. The Hawks are top ranked. The Tigers are rebuilding. Does anybody have a tougher head coaching debut that Josh Pastner has this year with Memphis?
Before that game, on the same court, Louisville plays Arkansas (L’Ville -10). Have any two programs combined for more off season drama than these clubs? Arkansas was a big disappointment last season. The Cards, meanhile, have to play for the first time in years withouth Terrance Whitehead and Edgar Sosa. Good mentor vs student matchup with Rick Pitino and John Pelphrey.
As we all finish the work day, Temple and Georgetown (GT -9) will be playing the second half of their matinee as part of ESPN’s 24-hour hoops marathon to start the season. Hard to imagine this game not having far reaching ramifications into March as far as the bubble and seedings go.
We’ve already had a fantastic start to the season. Did you see UC-Fulleton upset UCLA last night? Or Miami Ohio take Kentucky down the wire? The Cats needed a buzzer beater by Diaper Dandy John Wall to escape a third straight season opening loss. Calipari has brought instanst progress to Lexington. Clearly.
And, in the Big 10, Iowa is already throwing evidence on their resume that they may be more historically bad than last year’s Indiana outfit. The Hoosiers lost at home to Lipsomb last year, but the Hawks are not wasting any time trying to top that feat. They fell at home over the weekend to Texas-San Antonio. I’m guessing that does not bode well for the game with the actual University of Texas next week.
