Feast Week: Over/Under Big 10 Wins

Last year during the NCAA Tournament, I won money on the Big 10. In one of my many hoop diaries at mgoblog.com, I wrote that a good bet was taking the Big 10 to win more than 7.5 games in the NCAAs and I advised folks to follow my lead. Michigan and Wisconsin scored first round upsets, Purdue made the Sweet 16 and MSU got all the way to the Championship Game. It was Easy Money.

A new season is beginning and unlike past years, people are slurping the Big 10. Near unanimous approval that the Big 10 is in the top 3, along with the ACC and Big East. Some have gone further out on the limb to suggest the Big 10 is the deepest of all the power leagues across the hoops landscape.

We’ll find out before November ends if the league can begin to live up to its hype. All 11 teams play in Feast Week tournaments, a litany of made-for-tv basketball tournaments that has morphed Thanksgiving from a football weekend to a basketball weekend. Beginning Thursday, it will be hard not to find college basketball on TV for the next 11 days as these tournaments play out on nuetral floors across the country.

I am pumped. And, I cant wait to see if these Big 10 teams, which look so good on paper, can translate that goodness on the court. How will the Big 10 teams do? Am I as bullish on their chances in the upcoming days as I was last March. You bet I am. But, unlike, last March, you wont find a place to bet total wins for these fields. But, I did reach back into my underground sources to talk to a local Book (whose name we’ll just leave REDACTED for now) about what he would set for an Over/Under total on wins for the league in the 11 conbined Feast Week tournaments that are teams will play.

His line? 15.5 wins. Take it or leave it. Let’s take a quick look at the fields and see where we come down on this one.

Michigan, Old Spice Classic, 11/26-11/29, Orlando

Michigan vs Creighton; Marquette vs Xavier; Baylor vs Alabama; Iona vs Florida State

Michigan is favored by oddsmakers to win this tournament. Yes. You read that right.

A year ago at this time, Michigan held a decade long NCAA tournament drought and was coming off the worst season in program history. Now, they’re favored to win one of the toughest Feast Week fields out there. On behalf of Wolverine fans everywhere, John Beilein, this round is on me!

So, this is easy, right? Book the maize and blue for three wins and move on, correct. It’s never that easy. Michigan is the 3/1 favorite to this field, but, technically speaking, the Wolverines are co-favorites with the Xavier Musketeers. Xavier is also 3/1 to win this field and the two teams are expected to play each other in the semifinals. That is, of course, if either can get by tricky first round games. Michigan plays perennial Missouri Valley power Creighton and Xavier has to get by a beast from the Big East in Marquette. In the lower half, Baylor and Florida State should advance into the semifinals. Dont sleep on the Noles. Oddmakers aren’t as they are 4/1 to win this field.

With FSU, Xavier and UM, we basically have three favorites. Can Michigan win this field. I would never bet against John Beilein. I am not so sure I would tell anyone to book a Michigan trophy when this tournament is over. But, I do think they have the chops to win their opener, get at least another win and finish no worse than third place. I will book 2 wins, with a good shot a getting three.

Ohio State:  2K Sports Classic/Coaches Vs Cancer, 11/19-11/20

Syracuse vs Cal; Ohio State vs North Carolina

The Buckeyes have received a lot of practice buzz this fall as one of the more talented teams in the league.  That’s fine and dandy, now go start your season on national television against the defending national champion Tar Heels. But, the Heels are totally remaking themselves this year. With the all-everything Evan Turner, dangerous scorer William Buford, three-point marksman Jon Deibler and the return of David Lighty, you can make a case the Buckeyes are the more established team.We’ll see if you win that argument as the game unfolds, and I am not ready to count on a Big 10 team to beat North Carolina.

I do expect the Buckeyes to get at least a win in the consolation game. I think they’re better than both Cal and Syracuse, the possible matchups. I think Cal beats the Orange. Syracuse, while trying to make up for the lost scoring and play making of Johhnny Flynn, is the least established team in this field. OSU choked the Orange two years ago in the Pre Season NIT. The Orange are not as good as then. Meanwhile, the Bucks are better. Epinion

That’s a solid, sure 1 win for the Big 10.

Iowa: O’Reilly Auto Parts CBE Classic. 11/23-11/24

Pittsburgh vs Witchita State; Iowa vs Texas

Iowa could duplicate 2008 Indiana’s run as a league program achieving the worst season in program history. They will not beat Texas in the opener. They’ll be doing well staying within 20 points of the Final Four contending Horns. Can they squeak out a win in the consolation game? The likely foe is Witchita State from the Missouri Valley, a projected middle of the pack club who will likely lose to Pitt in the opener. I honestly dont know. I’d go with ‘Under One’ because there is no way they’re getting two wins, and I would rather not have to count on them doing something like, i dont know, winning a game.

That’s not even close to a ‘definite maybe.’ I think they can win a game, but in any hypothetical total bet on Big 10 wins during Feast Week, I would not factor in any Iowa wins. It’s the prudent thing to do.

Indiana: Puerto Rico Tip-Off, 11/19-11/22, Puerto Rico

Dayton vs Georgia Tech; Villanova vs George Mason; Indiana vs Ole Miss; Kansas State vs Boston U

You have to approach Indiana a lot like Iowa. The Hoosiers should be improved, but when trying to handicap wins, how can you count on them? Even if its just putting your theoretical money where your theoretical  mouth is. Any advancement in this field is gravy.

The Hoosiers face Ole Miss, a likely fringe bubble/NIT team, in the opener. Indiana was smoked twice last year during Feast Week by teams in that category from the Big East and Atlantic 10, so there is no way this is circled as a win. Indiana catches a break and will get Boston in the loser’s bracket. I like their chances in that one. But, I dont think they beat anybody from the bracket’s upper half. Yo have two tourney teams from a year ago–Dayton and Villanova; one of the strongest mid major programs in the country–George Mason; and an ACC team chalk full of uber recruits–Georgia Tech.

One is the max for Indiana. But, I think they get that with a win over Boston in the loser bracket semifinal.

Michigan State: Legends Classic. 11/27-11/28

Rutgers vs UMass; Michigan State vs Florida

This is surest thing the Big 1o has for a Championship during Feast Week. If the Spartans are a bonafide Final Four team, ready to spend the season auditioning for a #1 seed, then they ought to waltz through this tournament. Their opening foe, Florida is a brand name, but one that has not made the tournament the last two seasons. A team with the hype of MSU should eventually tuck this game away. In the finals, its either Rutgers or UMass. Neither of those teams would beat the Spartans in a down year for MSU, let alone one with the banner-raising expectations that Izzo’s crew has this season.

I strong call for 2 wins. I dont see them getting any less. MSU winning two games in this field is the best bet on the board. Its not whether or not they will win these games, but will they cover the spread? Amirite?

Purdue: Paradise Jam. 11/20-11/23. U.S. Virgin Islands

Depaul vs Northern Iowa; East Carolina vs Tennessee; Boston College vs St. Joe’s; Purdue vs South Dakota State

Like MSU, Purdue is also being talked about as a Final Four team coming out of the Big 10. And like, MSU, they need to show that hype is legit by winning their Feast Week Tournament. I factor Purdue as the favorite in this field, but aren’t quite the lock I think MSU is because the field is tougher and deeper than the one the Spartans will face.

A possible second round game with Boston College, could be a grinder that wont get decided until late. A showdown in the finals with an athletic Tennessee Volunteer team that, like the Boilers are ranked in the Preseason AP Top-10. You cant call winning this field a sure thing for Purdue. I do like Purdue to beat the Vols on a nuetral court, if it comes to that. Not winning this tournament would be a disappointment to the Boilers. Not getting at least two wins would be a stunner.

Purdue certainly will get two wins out of this field and are the favorite, IMHE, to notch a third. If I had to, I’d have no problem factoring 3 Purdue wins into this formula.

Penn State: Charleston Classic, 11/19-11/22, Charleston.

Tulane vs Miami; UNC-Wilmington vs Penn State; USF vs Davidson; LaSalle vs South Carolina

Penn State stands a great chance at coming out of this field with a couple of wins. I dont think, nor expect, them to win this tournament. South Carolina will have a home court edge in Charleston and they return a better core from last year than the other expected contenders in this field.  Beyond South Carolina, Penn State may have the best team in the field. With Talor Battle, they’ll have the best player on the floor against everyone expect South Carolina–who can counter with Devon Downey–and that could be enough for the Nittany Lions to make some waves while in Charleston.

Penn State will roll in their opener over UNC-Wilmington, a club that only won seven games last year. The Nittany Lions chances on notching a second win rests with their chances at getting at least one more win in the winner’s bracket. The likely foes in that situation would be either Miami or Davidson. Both of those squads were one-man shows last year and are trying to replace those All-Program players this season. Penn State already has their one man show rolling with Battle. I would expect Penn State to have a good chance at beating either on a nuetral floor, especially if Battle is on his game. Whether said win takes place in the semifinals or the third place game, I like Penn State’s chances at knocking out at least one of these teams out for their second win of the tournament.

Book Penn State for 2 wins out of this field.

Illinois: Las Vegas Invitational, 11/27-11/28

Oklahoma State vs Bradley; Illinois vs Utah

Illinois has a talented team, supplemented with one of the better recruiting classes in the league, but I am interested in seeing how this team plays without Chester Frazier. I think they will have too much for Utah in the opening round game, but I dont have a feel either way how they would play in a likely matchup with Okalhoma State in the Finals. It would be a classic case of Big 10 Defense versus Big 12 Offense should the Illini square off with the Pokes. I dont know if Illinois can survive a track meet with the boys from Stillwater. This is a 50/50 game, and I’m not sure who would win this game without taking a deeper look.

I’m not going to rely on my lucky coin in this one and just call for a single win for the Illini. I think they can get two, but for the purposes of this handicapping, I am banking on just on.

Northwestern: Chicago Invitational Classic, 11/27-11/28

Northwestern vs Notre Dame; Iowa State vs St. Louis

My take on Northwestern’s chances got a whole helluva lot less bullish in the wake of the Kevin Coble news. For those who missed it, last week the Wildcats best player went down with a foot injury. He will be out all season long. Expect him to redshirt. Ouch. Not good news to start the season for Northwestern, who many felt could earn their first ever NCAA bid this season.

I had been drooling at the prospects of watching the Cats go up against Notre Dame. Last year, the Irish had no defensive answers for the other team’s best forward. Coble could have gone off on these guys. I dont think the Cats suddenly wilt without Coble. Frankly, they are deeper and more talented than past NW outfits. I liked how they played without Coble in their opener against Northern Illinois over the weekend and I look forward to seeing them take on Butler this week.

As for next week’s field in Chicago, however, I think we’ll see that Notre Dame has too much offense for the Cats, who will still be trying to feel their way around the court without their top guy. Maybe the Cats play Butler tougher than expected this this week, and I change my mind. For now, I am giving Northwestern a loss to ND (although I really, really, really would love to see them beat the Irish), but a win over Iowa State or St. Louis in the consolation game. That game would likely be against the Billikens and Northwestern can thump them by a 55-40 score without Coble.

Despite the injury, Northwestn comes out of the Chicago Invitational with one win.

Wisconsin, Maui Invitational, 11/22-11/24

Colorado vs Gonzaga; Cincinnati vs Vanderbilt; Maryland vs Chaminade; Wisconsin vs Arizona.

Talk about a balanced field. Who is going to win this thing? Maryland, on shoulders of the great Greivas Jazquez? Gonzaga because they are Gonzaga? I could be talked into either. Both have flaws, such as Maryland’s general inconsistency the last four years. And, the Zags are in a bit of a rebuilding mode with a lot young, but talented pieces being coutned on the fill holes.

There is no great, elite team in the field. All of these teams would be doing well  by getting into the NCAAs and winning game. And, hey, that’s something Wisconsin did last year, so they have a puncher’s chance in this field.  The beuaty of handicapping Wisconsin for the purpose of this exercise is that they’re guaranteed at least one win before they get to their final game. They either beat Arizona in the opener and move on. Or, they lose to Arizona and play host Chaminade in the first game of the loser’s bracket. That’s an automatic W.

My take? If they’re good enough to ebat Arizona in the opener, then they are good enough win a second game in the winner’s bracket. If they aren’t, I still think they’re good enough to take care of the CU, Cincy and Vandy’s of the world that they would see in addition to Chaminade in the loser’s bracket. I think we can count on two wins by the Badgers.

Minnesota: Anaheim 76 Classic, 11/26-11/29

West Virginia vs Long Beach State; Texas A/M vs Clemson; Minnesota vs Butler; Portland vs UCLA

By far the toughest Feast Week field, with five ranked team, and a sixth that’s earned four straight at large bids into the NCAAs and is banking on a fifth in 2010. As for the Gophers, no Big 10 team opens with a harder first round game across the Feast Week landscape. Butler is ranked 10/11, depending on which poll you’re reading. Given all the goofiness and suspensions that have hovered around the program this fall, I dont like their chances against Butler’s smooth running operation.

If the Gophers get shipped to the loser’s bracket, there is at least one win there as they should ease by Portland. Can they beat somebody like Texas A/M or Clemson in the fifth place game? If they beat Butler, they’re not ensured any more wins in the winner’s brackets as I dont know if I would take them over UCLA, West Virginia, Clemson and Texas A/M.

The Gophers are a good team. But, this field is stacked. Too stacked to count on anything more than a single win from Minnesota. Just one win would not surprise me. Nor, would seeing the Gophers play for the title next Sunday. For now, I am sticking with one win.

Alright, let’s add them up: Purdue gets 3 wins. MSU, UM, Wisco, Penn State each get 2 wins and OSU, IU, Minnesota, Northwestern and Illinois get one win apiece. Iowa wont get any.  That’s 16 wins.

I am taking Over 15.5 wins for the Big 10. Book It. Which way are you going?