A balanced field convenes in Maui. While the Inviational doesnt have the heavyweights its had it past years, the evens the next three days in the middle of the Pacific ought to have huge bubble ramifications come March.
Let’s use a pair of preseason brackets as a barometer for where people expect these teaams to stand in four months. Accorinding to ESPN’s Lunardi we have Maryland, 7; Gonzago, 9; Wisconsin, 10; Vandy part of the last last four out; Cincy and Arizona the second four out. That’s six of eight of teams in this field somewhere between the 7-line and the eitgth to last team out. According to the Sporting News Preseason annual, they lay out their projected bracket with Maryland, 6; Cincy, 7; Vandy, 9; Gonzaga, 11. Neither wisco nor arizona are in their field, and they dont list a final four out and such like others do. still, it’s pretty clear that about one quarter of the final two dozen or so prospective bubble applicants will be on display the next three night.
You can see how important today’s first round games between Vanderbilt/Cincinnati and Arizona/Wisconsin might be looked upon in a few months. If a team like the Badgers, Bearcats and Commodores, your can see just how solidified their only place may be. Or, the ding taken to the Terps resume should they fail to beat anyone other than Chaminade in their opening game tonight. Welcome Back to 2008 uphill fight, right? So the November pecking order is rather meaningless and offers as much of a rock solid portrait of the end of the year as July football polls. But while the whole thing is a fluid situation at this point, the winners and losers the next three days will at least do some cementing of their own place in the line.
So, who wins this sucker. Technically, the Field is the favorite, catching 2.2/1 odds with Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Colorda and Chaminade on your ticket. Not sure why the odds for those three are so low. Meanwhile, Maryland is next at 2.5 to 1 and Vandy, Arizona and Gonzaga all line up at 4/1.
I’m not so sure Gonzaga isnt the best pick on the board to win this tournament. At 4/1, the payout is nice. Vanderbilt and Arizona are also 4/1, but I like the Zags better than those teams. Ditto the Field bet at 2.2/1. Maryland is the favored single team at 2.5/1, but the Zags smoked the Terps last season in the Old Spice Classic. After watching the Bulldogs go toe to toe with the Spartans at the Breslin Center last week, I dont really think a whole lot has changed between the programs, just different faces.
Last week, I presented some pretty dour numbers about Gonzaga’s lack of success in non-conference. They haave not been a profitable play going 26-26 ATS the last five seasons. But, part of their public perception as noveau hoop power has been earned because the Bulldogs pick the right spots to shine in non conference play: when more people are watching. They have been Feast Week stars going 9-4 ATS the last four seasons during Feast Weeks, winning three tournaments and losing in the finals of a fourth. You can make a strong case they’re the best team in this field. I dont think Colorado will hang will hang with them. I think they’re more talented than Cincy and Vandy, either a possible semifinal game foe. I can always hedge a 4/1 bet if the Zags make the finals and still make more than a couple unit of profit. I’m liking this the more I’m talking about it. Read more »
