Monthly Archives: October 2009

After a 3-3 round of nooners, we’re trying to coax out a winning record here in the midday. Wisconsin stop doing boneheaded things and a UCLA comeback would be helpful. Anyway, onto tonight:

Maryland +14 over Wake….Wake is not two TDs better than anyone in the ACC right now

Idaho +5 over San Jose…..this worked last weekend. Maybe the Vandals are the WAC sleeper afterall

Southern Miss -1 over Louisville….Cards are a mess. Eagles are always solid as long as they’re overmatched talent wise. They are not here.

UM +9 over Iowa……my only night pick from my Big 10 Picks Diary. I need it or its going to be a bad week for that column. Not to mention a lot of comeuppance already from my Wahoo e-friends over that Indiana debacle. (Ed note: About 15 minutes until KO, I am making the bet and the line is at 9. So there you go.)

LSU +10 over Florida….I wrote this as +7.5 this morning. But only played it tonight. All the Tebow is playing news is driving this back up. I’m sticking with a little night of magic in the Bayou.

Stanford -2 at Oregon State…..road chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. has not been good to me so far today. But, I’m taking it here. Corvallis hasnt made it any easier for OSU in losses to Cincy and Arizona already. Honestly, I think Stanford is as good as those clubs.

CU +33 over Texas….Uh, Steele Dog? Hey, look what going off script cost me earlier. We’re back on script. Plus, possible look ahead game with the Sooners on deck for the Horns.

Georgia Tech +3 at FSU….i love taking Paul Johnson teams as underdogs. I got destroyed doing this a few weeks ago when Tech played the Canes. The Canes are a team on the rise. The Noles are a mess. I’ll take the steadier ship here. Read more »

Big 10 picks went 2-1. SEC picks are 0-2, although I am ahead in the UK/South Carolina, but there is a lot of time left. The morale of the story, is that you should not brazenly go against SEC home field advantage (UGA, Auburn) and never bet on a team that invents new ways to lose because, well, they will invent a new way to lose (Purdue).

So, the 3:30 window is about to begin. The calls in the early post stand, but we’re adding Uconn +7 over Pitt, Marshall -3 over Tulane and Bowling Green -1 over Kent to the card. We’ll be back later tonight.

As always, a full card of Big 10 games. Detailed on the quaint stage of MGoBlog.  Check it out. To sum: Purdue +3, Purdue Over 51.5, MSU -4, Wisco +16, Wisco O47, IU +7 and UM +8.

I love today’s Big 10 schedule as Wisconsin-Ohio State and Iowa-Michigan are usually two of the more fun games on an annual basis. Despite that, a solid Pac 10 slate highlighted by upstarts squaring off with Arizona-UW, Stanford-OSU and Oregon-UCLA and a rematch of the last two ACC Championship games between Boston College and Virginia Tech, all eyes should firmly be focused on the SEC. Five conference games dot the schedule, all drip with intrigue, ranging from reeling rivals trying to turn seasons around to heavyweight fights that are nothing less than October Super Bowls. So, why not turn at least part of the Saturday card, for an impromptu, special edition of SEC Picks. We’re branching out. What could go wrong?

Auburn -2.5 at Arkansas, O/U 65, noon, ESPN…….Initially I wanted to jump all over the Over, but, man 65 points is a lot of points and about as fun to track and watch play out as an Under 40 bet. Think about it, the game could end 34-31 and you still would not win. It takes a lot of scoring just to get to that mark. So, I am passing this one with hesitation.

Instead, i’ll just focus on the side in this matchup of Steele Dog vs Steele Dog. And I’m going to go way off script here and take the favored Steele team, rather the home dog Hogs. I just think Auburn is the more complete team. Meaning, the can run the football and play a little bit of defense. I dont know if the Hogs can do either. Well, I know they cant play defense against a good team. They will get a little bit of burst from the home crowd, but eventually the balance of the Tigers with the 1-2 rushing punch of Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb and the efficient, scoring passing attack triggered by Chris Todd will exert itself and win this game in the fourth quarter. Everybody knows the Hogs are explosive, but Tiger wideouts Darvin Andrews and Terrel Zachory can take any catch the distance. They have a combined nine TDs this year. Auburn so far has showcased the lethal tonic of punishing ground game in the middle of the field puncuated with an offense that can get points in the passing game when it closes in. I dont think Arkansas stops them.

The Pick: Auburn -2………I firmly believe that if Ryan Mallett plays out his eligibility and Bobby Petrino remains his coach the whole time, that the pair will lead Arkansas to an SEC Title Game. This won be that year. The team is way too one dimensional, relies on the Mallett bomb to score like a plodding American League baseball team from a generation ago sat around and waited for the three-rin dinger. Football-wise, they remind me of the Buffalo Bills the first couple of years Jim Kelly QBed the team after his stint in the CFL. Overnight an awful team that won two games the year before became the most exciting team to watch. Every week they played shootouts.  But, there win totals only incrementally went up, going 4-12 and 7-9 those first two seasons. Unless Kelly was dealing hot, the Bills didnt have much a chance until a better, more balanced core surrounded him. That’s where Arkansas is right now.

Georgia +1 at Tennessee, O/U 47.5, noon, SEC network Read more »

WARNING WARNING WARNING

I am off the an 0-2 start to the week, dropping a pair of weekday games, so tread very carefully with this one.

I remain at a loss to explain what in the world happened last night with the Missouri Tigers. That was as famous as an implosion as I’ve ever seen for something I endorsed. It’s not as tragic as the day I killed Barbaro, but when Tiger fans are making December reservations for Shreveport instead of something more sunnier and beachier in California or Florida, they will have me to thank.

When you throw in the Monday Night loss on the Packers, I have lost three in a row. After last night, I am wondering if I will ever win again. I forced myself to watch a little bit of this Twins-Yankees game to remind me that there are not only other fun sports to watch, but ones you dont need to gamble on. So, I am recharged and naturally pumped we are on the eve of another football Saturday.

So, of course, I have a little something something going on this evening. Take the underdog. Louisiana Tech. I dont think Nevada has played all that well this year. Tech is a growing program and have been solid under Derek Dooley. This game will be close. The double digit line seems to be a mistake.

The Pick: La Tech +11 over Nevada.

A compelling game tonight in the Big 12, one that will set the pecking order for the North Division race for the rest of the season, when Nebraska travels to Missouri.

Much has been made of Nebraska’s fall from the elite of college football. Many partisans think this is the year they regain their footing a bit and close the gap on league powers Texas and Oklahoma. I think Husker hopes should be slowed a bit as far as those heights. They ought to catch up with Missouri first.

The Tigers have won this game four of the last six years, including two in a row. They’ve won three straight against Nebraska at home, scoring no less than 41 points in those games. They won in Lincoln last year and stamped a 52-spot on the Husker’s forehead. Translation: Nebraska fans want to measure up to Texas and Oklahoma, but they smaller fish they need to prove they can fry before even getting to that point.

Fact is, this is Missouri’s series right now. And, given their success over Nebraska in recent years and their status as back-to-back North Champs, the Tigers are the better football program right now. I dont see any reason to think that will change tonight. The Tigers have gashed the mighty Black Shirt defense throughout that time, averaging 229.66 rushing yards per game in the three home games and 198 yards rushing over the last four games overall in this series, three of which were blowout Missou wins. I dont think that stops tonight.

Interesting subplot in thie game is Missou QB Blaine Gabbard, who intially comitted to Nebraska. Now, he gets his shot at the Huskers. Gabbard has tossed 11 TD and zero INTs this season. On one hand, he has not faced a defense this season like Nebraska’s. On the other hand, the Huskers have not seen this sort of dynamic offense yet this season, especially one that has the level of historic success against it in recent years like Missouri does.

The biggest winner tonight might be the weather. So, if the weather folks call for 100 percent chance of precipitation, does that mean the game will be played under wet circumstance? Um, yeah. It looks nasty tonight. I dont see how anyone can take the Over 52 given the circumstance. Is that an endorsement towards the Under? If you think so, go ahead and do it. I’m staying away from the total unless I tune in minutes before kickoff and sideways rain and conditions miserable enough to remind me of the 2008 Northwestern-Michigan game. If I see that, I will hit the under.

Otherwise, I’m sticking with just the Tigers. Husker QB Zach Lee has been ok, but he’s been more of a downgrade from the underrated Joe Ganz than Gabbard has been from the overrated Chase Daniel. The Huskers offense kind of sputtered in their only road game this year. Granted, that was against the uber tough, Bud Foster-led Virginia Tech Hokie defemse. But, the Tiger defense is playing better this year than last year and I have my money on the fact that Gabbard and the Tiger offense is a bit more smooth running and can handle the elements better tonight. Read more »