Monthly Archives: October 2009

My Big 10 Picks Schtick over at MGo is cratering to its worst week ever.

We are in full chase mode Saturday night.

Virginia tech -3 at Georgia Tech…..Tyrod Taylor has turned his game around from early September. Georgia Tech’s D has been sketchy past their big names up front. Hokies line can nuetralize that and Taylor will do to the Jackets what Jacori Harris did to them a few weeks ago.

UK +14 at Auburn; South Carolina +18 at Alabama……SEC double digit dogs are always a solid investment and have bounced back after “downish” year last season.

Stanford +4 at Arizona…..I’m going to give the Cardinals another chance. They peed their pants in Corvalis last weekend, but I cling to my belief this is a top-4 Pac 10 team. I’m still willing to back that e-handicapping with a chance here.

SMU +7 over Navy…..oh yeah, finally jumping aboard the Pony Express. June Jones has something going here. And we’ve seen Navy teams in the past in spots like these give up boats loads of points and struggle as the favorite. I think the Mustangs could throw their way to a win here.

Late Night Play: Missou +7 over Okie State

Late Late Night Play: Washington +7 over Arizona State.

If you’re into those kind of things, we’re doubling up on the late nighters.

(Ed Note: This will brief, and likely a sloppy read. Under the gun this morning. But, I wanted to get some afternoon picks and writeups on the site. I’ll check in midday with a new post for tonight that hopefully wont be as much of a jumbled mess as this.) 

Big Saturday in college football today. Four games between ranked opponents. Historic rivalries. And a lot of under the radar intrigue in the national chase for the BCS. Think about it, if things break a certain way teams like Virginia Tech and Ohio State, September discards, will be sitting pretty as October fades. Or chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. could hold tomorrow and we remain on a SEC vs Texas collision. Meanwhile, upstart mid-majors Boise and TCU are pulling for as much chaos today as possible. Conference races will continue to crystallize and November contenders will begin to cement themselves.

My day begins with a full card of Big 10 action, detailed as always at MGoBlog: NW +14, NW/MSU O 51.5, OSU -13.5, Wisco -2, Wisco/Iowa O 46, Minny +17.5 and Indiana +3.  The first five of those games begin at noon. That ought to be enough to keep me occupied. Of course, too much of everything is just enough. So, let’s add a few more plays to the afternoon card.

Wake Forest +7 over Clemson……let’s ask this question: in a straight up affair, whose team would you back? One coached by Jim Grobe, or one coached by something called a Dabo Sweeney? I’d take Grobe. Give me a touchdown headstart, and it’s a no brainer. Grobe’s teams are 18-11 as road dogs. Clemson handled them pretty easily in 2007 in their last trip to Death Valley, but otherwise the Deacs have covered seven of nine games in Clemson and are 8-2 ATS in this series in the last decade. This game is pretty important. Like it is every year, the ACC Atlantic Division is anybody’s game. Most probably dont realize that Wake is in the driver’s seat. Only in the ACC would wins over Virginia and Maryland be enough of a bounty to put anybody in control of anything. Wake QB Riley Skinner has been a steady hand for years, but is currently going through his most explosive stretch yet as a player. While the Clemson D will be the toughest he’s faced all year, I’ll take him and Grobe’s gameplan to keep them off balance.  This game gets decided by a field goal late, and dont be surprised if Wake pulls the outright upset.

NCST +3 over BC……last year’s Superhero for me Russell Wilson has been disappointing in his encore Sophomore season.  This team was my top moneymaker last fall, but are just 1-2 ATS when I’ve pulled the lever in their favor this season. There remains plenty of good on this teaam, such as a stingy run defense and the playmaking of Wilson, who remains a threat, even if he’s going through a bit of a sophomore slump. He will outperform BC’s starting QB. I hate to dis BC, one of the nation’s perennianly underrated teams, but I just dont think they’re much of a player this year. Meanwhile folks are rightfully down on the Pack after last week’s loss to Duke, but that is where we see an opening.  Teams that are road dogs, the week after losing outright at home as double digit favorites are 91-53-3 ATS. Included in this is a winning play from earlier this year with MSU +11 over ND. We’ll ride with this system again.

UCLA +3.5 over Cal….Both teams are struggling and the loser will suffer their third PAc 10 loss of the season. Expect both teams to play desperate. The Bruins were a Phil Steele MIT and we keep playing these teams as dogs. Its been working all season and while there might not be a whole lot to like about UCLA, we’re hanging out hat on what’s been working for us all season. Read more »

I assume you dont expect a call on tonight’s Howard-Morgan State game on the U? Well, for those interested, you can get Morgan State -11 at 5dimes.com, so there’s that. And for Michigan fans checking in, that game will give you a chance to see some league brethern of the Delaware State team coming to Ann Arbor on Saturday. But, no, we’re interested in what’s going on in Tampa and the Big East tonight.

South Florida hosts Cincy tonight in something that is more than your run-of-the-mill Big East game. Both teams are 5-0 and the winner, especially if its the Bearcats, will be drumming a National Title beat. Folks have been wondering who would beat Cincy this season, and tonight will prove to be their toughest test until their closing stretch of West Virginia and Pittsburgh, both of which take place after Thanksgiving. If the Bearcats win, their candidacy for the BCS Title Game will become the hottest topic debated this side of Boise.

Both teams are 5-0, and that’s where my analysis begins and ends. The summer before my first season gambling on college sports, I bought a preview magazine entitled Marc Lawrence’s Playbook. In it, he detailed a system in which you should always bet the underdog when two 5-0 or better teams play each in the regular season. The numbers were very impressive. Sadly, through four different moves since then I have lost this copy and cant spout off the numbers. But, I have been playing this system, which does not come around that often, with success ever since. Here are the ups and downs:

2000: Oklahoma +8.5 over KState, 41-31, winner. Oklahoma +3 over Nebraska, 31-14, winner. Oklahoma’s national title run included these games. I had them earlier in year vs Texas and in the bowl vs FSU. I still have not rode a team throughout the year like I did with the Sooners in 2000 that ended with them winning the whole thing. One of my favorite teams of all time.

2001: Oklahoma +4.5 over Nebraska, 10-20, loser. I can still see that Eric Crouch reverse touchdown catch gadget play. Dammit!!!!

2002: Notre Dame +3 over Air Force, 21-14, winner. I hated to do it, but I was all about the Irish that night Read more »

We are at the midpoint of the season, and some intriguing, under-the-radar storylines are developing across the mid-major landscape with several downtrodden programs, looking good and bowl worthy for a change. None of these teams are getting to much publicity outside of there own tiny sphere of influence. One such program, however, gets center stage tonight, hosting a key conference showdown, with the ESPN cameras in tow.

Who is ready for Tuesday Night Football? The University of Lousiana Monroe Warhawks, that’s who! The Warharks host Arkansas State tonight in a critical showdown to see if anyone else out there in the Sun Belt Conference can stand as a legitimate contender to Troy.

The RedWolves already have a three-point to Troy on their resume, so they can not afford to lose again if they want to harbor any hopes at taking the SBC. ULM, meanwhile, wants to win tonight and set up a possible winner-take-all showdown at Troy on Halloween night.

The Warhawks are 3-2 in the young season. Losses to BCS school Texas and Arizona State have been evened out with a pair of league wins over Florida International and Florida Atlantic. ULM has averaged just 4.5 wins per season this decade with no winning records during that time.  That said, they are 15-15 in their last 30 SBC league games and they have slowly, but surely become one of the league’s better teams.

But, they’re still looking for that elusive winning season. I expect them to notch that this season. They had 17 starters returning. The only question mark as the teams were measured against one another in the SBC this summer was how would they replace the solid Kinsmon Lancaster at QB. But, Tony Revell ahs stepped in, and while he has not been awesome, he has been effective and relatively mistake. It’s allowed a running game, sparked by Frank Goodin and an offensive line that might be the best in the SBC to dictate games in their favor.

Arky State’s QB Corey Leonard can take advantage of ULM’s soft secondary. But, it wont be enough tonight. ULM is better along both lines of scrimmage.  I am always interested in the team that will both run and stop the run better. I like the Warhakws balance, especially running the football with the quick Goodi and Revell tossing it to a trio of three dangerous receivers, all of whom can stretch the field.

The Pick: ULM  -2…….Do you think it’s important to know that ULM is also 22-8  ATS since the start of 2005 in Sun Belt play. I think it might be. Read more »