Monthly Archives: October 2009

A few look-ahead thoughts to the upcoming college football weekend:

UConn is the last team undefeated against the Vegas line. How can you not be in the Huskies corner after watching them deal with the tragic death of a teammate? They really did lay it all on the line last week in the four point loss, but ATS cover (they were +7),  against West Virginia. The Mountaineers had smoked them for five striaght years, but the Huskies were only a play or two away from nabbing the outright upset. How much gas do they have in the emotional and mental tank? From a handicapping standpoint, the Huskies face higher expectations. They’re hosting Rutgers on Saturday and for the first time all season they are significant chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. againt a league foe that is probablty their equal program wise. They covered as double digit chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. a few weeks ago against league cellar dweller Louisville. This seems like its a harder hurdle to jump.

Meanwhile, the other unbeaten ATS team heading into last week took it on the chin in a big way. The Idaho Vandals crashed to earth, giving up 70 points to Nevada in a 70-35 loss. I only had +15.5 points. FML. The Vandals played well for three quarters, but Nevada’s offense was too much to contain and they busted the spread wide open with a huge fourth quarter. Until then, I had liked my chances in this game. Nevada is the clear #2 in the league and maybe it was a case of wishful thinking to think a perennial last place team like Idaho could rise up and take them on. They’re back at home against Louisiana Tech, laying a short three points. I think La Tech is more their class. I could see myself giving the Vandals another shot this weekend.

Look for Central Michigan to move up in the JCB Poll. In addition to Idaho, four other teams in last week’s poll burned money. The carnage didnt include the CHIPS who spanked Bowling Green. This week, CMU (6-1 SU, 6-1ATS) steps out of confernece for an interesting road game at Boston College. Right now, CMU is catching five points. I’m inclined to grab a little Central Michigan action in this one.

How do we feel about Tennessee being steady five-point chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. against South Carolina? The Vols have been money as an underdog this season, netting a 3-0 record with covers over a heady list that includes Florida, Georgia and Alabama. But, they’re just 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season, including outright losses to a bad UCLA team and an average Auburn program. I love what Lane Kiffin has done this year. I am one of  thousand of pundits that are doing a mea culpa on our original forecasts of his tenure. We’re also being reminded just how great Monte Kiffin is at coaching defense. They play a boring style, but watching the Kiffins’ gameplan thwart opposing offenses and keep games close has been must see television. Despite that, I think South Carolina is the better team. The Vols have been overachieving a bit this season. They would need to do that again just to win this game, let alone cover the spread. I think South Carolina nets the “upset” but I like those five points in my pocket anyway.

Is this going to be chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. eating mutha fawker edition of Big 10 picks? It might be. I think both Penn State and Iowa win by three touchdowns this week and they’re favored by 14 and 17 points respectively. Its not time to start betting the Illini, and I think MSU batters a dysfunctioning Minnesota team. Hard to imagine not laying road chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. there with the Wolverines and Spartans. The one dog I like is Purdue catching a touchdown against Wisconsin. They might be the most improved team in the league right now. I like the idea of them getting a head start. Then again Wisco is on a bye. I don’t know. Anyway, thats our early week mindset at the start of the week for the Big 10 games. Maybe more research will net a changed mind. But, in case it does not, I am prepping my palate for some chalky goodness. Read more »

We’ve struggled with our picks the last few weeks. What’s our slump busting strateg? Work harder. And, more importantly, get back to the basics.

This season began with me promoting the Phil Steele Most Improved Team list and that those teams are profit makers when installed as underdogs. September was nuts with twice as many picks made as I wanted to, but using the Steele Dogs as a guide, I mined a lot more winners than losers. The last few weeks, I’ve moved away from the Steele Dogs, focused on new strategies, and paid the price. While most of those teams still grabbed the cash, I have sunk with consecutive losing weeks. Today, that ends. And this weekend’s card is propped up by an Army of barking Steele Dogs.

First, an explanation. We are not, however, working exclusively off his main list. We’ve made some cuts. Almost had to. Is anyone sad we’re taking off Illinois, they of the 0-5 ATS, 0-3 as a dog record? If you’re following my Big 10 Picks series, you know we jumped off Illinois weeks ago and continue to do so today.

Overall, Steele Dogs are 39-30 ATS this season, but if we remove Illinois, and a few obvious swings and misses that his 22-team list had, we can do much better. The Illini, UNLV, and UCLA are worth kicking off the Island. Combined they are 2-9 ATS when catching points. They’ve been the only three truly bad investments on this list, not just as dogs, but overall, and we dont have problem excluding their games. The Bruins have been crushing us lately, losing three straight to the number. I was once advised never let a team beat you for more than two weeks in a row. We’re following that rule today. Of course, now that Eddie Mush is not on the Bruins, they will liekly beat Arizona today by two touchdowns.

Also, I have assigned Units to my plays today. That’s a new wrinkle. I’ve had a few people wonder why I dont do that, so today we will dip into those waters. Most plays will be for the same value, but we’ll go out farther on a few limbs. Wht could go wrong? Eh, to be safe, can you put a trampoline or something soft and cushy below? kthxbai.

I’ve got to fly here in a few minutes. Heading up to Ann Arbor for the UM/PSU game. So, briefly, here is the full day’s card: Read more »

Crazy circumstances in the ACC tonight. You wont find too many matchups this weekend pitting two desperate teams as the outfits hitting the field tonight from Florida State and North Carolina.

Everyone knows what’s going on in Tallahassee. It’s a debacle. Has the feel of all the angst that came out of Happy Valley from 2000-2004. Paterno survived that, but southern football fans are way less patient. If and when this season craters any further, this could be the sideshow dramas to end all sideshow dramas. Well, until Lane Kiffin opens his mouth again. The Noles sit at 2-4. They’re finally getting solid QB play for the first time in years, thanks to Christian Ponder. But, man, that defense stinks. Among the worst statistically, the Noles have proved vulnerable against just about everybody they have played this year. A loss tonight and you have to begin pondering life without a bowl game, Seminole fans. Welcome to Michigan 2008.

Of course, is the situation really any better in Chapel Hill? Sure, the Heels are looking good at 4-2, but two of those wins have come to FCS schools. A trendy pick to win the league, the Heels are a loss away from slipping into panic mode. Remember, because of 2 FCS wins, the Heels need to get to seven wins just to reach a bowl game. A loss tonight makes that chase more difficult, let alone competing for the league crown. Offesively, the Heels stink. They returned a lot of personnel from last year, but nothing is clicking. As bad as FSU is statistically on D, the Heels match those numbers on offense.

We’ll find out tonight what happens when rickety offense squares off against a seive-like defense. Uh, something has got to give, right?

Bizarrely, both teams can jump right back into the thick of the ACC race should they pull out a win tonight. The Noles have three league losses, but only one was to a divisional foe. That was BC, who already has two league losses. The Noles can still swipe tiebreakers from everyone else in the Atlantic Division. The Heels, meanwhile, lost to Georgia Tech earlier in the year, but with games ahead agains Va Tech and Miami, they still will have say in how the Coastal Division shakes out.

The winner tonight begins to turn the corner on a disappointing season. The loser faces a lot of question marks, talk radio drama and the possibility of a losing season. The question becomes who takes this clash of desperate ACC teams? Read more »

The first BCS standings have been announced. The Blog Poll has been updated. The college football pecking order has been determined, right? Not so fast my friends! You dont even know the half of it. Let the JCB clue you in on the real powers so far of 2009 season with the blog’s own ballot for top-10 teams in the county. Only high earners need apply.

First some disclaimers. Of course, there are oversights. There were only 10 spots in poll. Until the suits (read: maize4blue) allow expansion, we’re stuck on this number and some folks will just have to deal with being left out. Save the complaints then.  I am looking at you Temple, Ohio and Boston College fans. Oh, and dont worry Ohio State, I see you in the corner over there with that 5-2 ATS mark. But, come on, you really thought I would list you after that effort against Purdue. Especially since I told the worldwide MGo Podcast audience how brilliant you all were on the road. And, yes, I hear the noise coming out of the Sooner state where both Oklahoma and Tulsa have gone Under the total everytime out. There’s a reason you’re not on this list. I hate Unders. I am pretty Anti-Underite in that regard. And, its pretty  bad, so dont expect love here.

Alright, with that on the way, the JCB Top-10 as it stands as Week 8 of the season begins, with ATS records listed first:

1. (tie) Idaho 7-0 (6-1) Next: at Nevada. Line, Nevada -15.5. Connecticut, 6-0 (4-2) Next: at West Virginia. Line, WVA -7.

We dropped the scoop on these guys earlier in the week. They are the only two unbeaten teams against the odds left standing. Idaho is 7-0 ATS, while the Huskies are 6-0. More than half their covers have come when catching points, yet both have good SU records (a combined 10-3) and are steaming towards bowl bids. Can they keep their undefeated seasons alive this weekend?

We all know the story in Stoors. Tragedy. Who knows how they will respond? West Virginia has been a terrible matchup for them. I dont know if seven points would be enough even in optimal settings. But, I’m cheering for them either way. No team in the country deserves the happiness that winning brings than UConn right now. And that’s an understatement. Read more »