If you’re thinking of playing tonight’s ACC clash between North Carolina and Virginia Tech (VT -17, O/U 43), then you should think long and hard about laying the heavy chalk with the Hokies and also taking the Under.
History would be on your side with both bets. Since joining the ACC, the Hokies are 31-16 ATS in conference games, including 22-12 at home. They have never had less than four covers in league games since joining the conference. With a 2-2 ATS mark in the ACC with four games left, it’s safe to say that if history holds the Hokies ought to cash more tickets than not between now and the end of November.
As for the total play, Lane Stadium has been an Under palace. In the last 20 games on the Hokies home field, the Under has gone 15-5. I blame it on the Metallica. Although most of it could probably be attributed to the stingy, nasty Bud Foster-coached defenses that for years have called Lane Stadium home. This year is proving no different. Four opponents have walked into Blacksburgh–Marshall, Nebraska, Miami and Boston College–and none have left scoring more than 15 points. With foes averaging just 11.5 points per game in 2009 at Lane Stadium, dont you wonder just how the Heels and their 114th in total and 90th in scoring offense will dent the scoreboard at all. I know I do.
The Heels have been terrible on offense all season long. It;s not an outfit built for any success in a place like Blacksburgh. There is no passing offense to speak of. No deep threat to stretch the field and even if there was I’m not sure TJ Yates, whose thrown as many picks as TDs, could take advantage of that. The passing attack is barely popgun status, averaging just over 5 yards per attempt. Shaun Droughn and Ryan Houston have been competent running the football, but without any fear from Yates and the passing attack, it’s hard not to see the Hokie defense just teeing off and stoning the Heels run game.
The season has been one of underachievement for the Heels. They’ve gone from trendy summer pick to win the league to winless in three ACC starts headed into the final weekend of October. Some might point to the loss of NFL-ready talent Hakeem Nicks from the passing attack. But, one wideout doesn’t force teams to take a step back. I think UNC is merely struggling to live up to expectations while playing all season with a target on their backs. It just shows you that while its hard to take a losing program and take it to a bowl game, it is much harder to maintain that level of success at said school. Last year was only the third bowl game UNC qualified for in the alst 11 years and the have not amde consecuvtive postseason appearances since the Mack Brown ere ended. Folks are bummed that Heels arent an ACC contender this year, but Butch Davis will be shwoing progress just by getting the Heels into a 13th game again.
Even though they’re considered one of the most disappointing teams in the country, it’s not all bad for the Heels. Defensively, they’ve been pretty solid. Up front, they’ve stopped the run and have been able to pressure the QB all season. I’m looking forward to watching DT Robert Quinn and DE Marvin Austin knocking heads with the Hokies offensive front led by eventual first round draft pick Sergio Render. If the Heels can get a defensive push, I think they can thwart the Hokie O and stay in this game tonight. But, that’s a big ‘If.” While the Heels have held five of seven foes to 17 points or less this season, there is that bad taste leftover from last Thursday night when they let FSU basically call their shots offensively, put up 30 points and come from 18 points down to a notch a win in Chapel Hill. Did the defense just let up after getting a big lead? Or is the effort more indicative of what to expect when they go up against the better offenses of the league.
And therin lies the rub for UNC tonight. The Hokies are on the best attacks in the league. Redshirt freshmen Ryan Williams–one of the Hokies most touted running back recruits in the Beamer era–has been a stud all season. He’s averaging almost 120 yards a game, has hit paydirt 11 times and leads the 17th best rushing attack in the country. Then, there is Tyrod Taylor. At times, the kid has been maligned, but he’s following up a strong close to the 2008 season with a breakout performance this season. Did you know he leads the ACC in passing efficiency and that he’s sixth nationally? Now you do. Taylor has given the Hokies points in the passing game with nine touchdowns and he;s only tossed three picks. He still has bouts of inaccuracy, but he has developed int a big play passer, evidence by his 9.8 yards per attempt.
The Hokie offense versus the Heel defense is the game within the game to watch. If the Hokies have success, then this one will be a blowout. But if the Heels can revert to an earlier season form on defense, they have the talent and skill on that side of the ball to stay in the game.
The problem with betting the Hokies tonight and for the rest of the season is the fact that they’re going to be significant favorites from here on out. Their slate was front loaded with contenders and non-conference showdowns. Down the stretch, they play what amounts to a roster of ACC also rans. After tonight, they travel to East Carolina and Maryland, host NC State and end the season at Virginia. Arguably, the road game against ECU from Conference USA is the hardest foe down the stretch. Only heavy chalk eaters apply as the Hokies should be double digit favorites from here on out.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Hokies respond down the stretch. They’re out of the national title chase. And, with a loss to Georgia Tech hanging around their neck, they’re hopes of winning the Coastal Division and making the ACC Title game look dim. They need to win out, but that’s the easy part of the equation. They need to combine that with al least one Georgia Tech loss to either Virginia or Duke. I dont see that happening. But, I do expect the Hokies to romp a lot in November. Look for them to try and put as many beat downs as possible on folks down the stretch. Their hope is that a winning streak down the stretch gets them to 10 wins. They might lose the tie breaker to Georgia Tech, but such an effort might net the ACC’s first ever at large bid to a BCS bowl game.
As for me making a call on tonight’s game. I cant endorse taking the Heels with such a lame offense going against a stellar D like the Hokies. But, man, I hate laying heavy chalk. If forced to make a pick, I would lean towards giving the points and taking the Under. The Hokies record ATS in ACC play speaks for itself and tonight we have two good to great defenses on the field, but only one competent offense.
Honestly, I am taking a pass. There are better investments (at least, I hope) on Saturday. But, I would check out of the prop bets. Can you get a bet that the Hokies will block a kick or that the Heels will miss a field goal. Why do I say that? Shockingly, Hokies foes have hit every single one of the field goals this year. That seems odd against Beamer Ball that’s known for twarting both punts and field goals. I’ve got a feeling the Hokies block at least one kick tonight en route to a comfortable 31-10 win.
