The topsy-turvy world of college football took some frustration out on the Just Cover Blog’s top 10 poll last week. The carnage was severe with five teams going down, burning money all the way. So, what are the ramifications for this week’s poll? Well, the votes are in and there has almost been a complete turnover in the poll. Out: Nebraska (insert, ‘they turned it over again’ joke right here), Miami, South Carolina and Duke Over. We’ll see if the newbies in this week’s poll have the staying power to remain.
1.) UCONN, 7-0 (4-3). Next: vs Rutgers, noon, ESPN Gameplan. Line: UCONN -8
At least the Huskies hung on to the top spot. We can’t say anything more that has already been said about the Huskies toughness and grit in playing in the wake of their teammate’s murder. We’ll see how much they have emotionally for this game. They took West Virginia down the wire, but find themselves needing to cover heavy chalk to keep their unbeaten season going.
2.) Central Michigan, 6-1 (6-1) and Boston College, 5-2 (4-3) Next: Each Other, 3:30, ESPNU. Line, BC -6.
The Chippewas and Eagles share the #2 spot this week, but not for long. These two 2009 ATS powers square off against each other this weekend in Chesnut Hill. Boston College is favored by 6 points in this titantic showdown. How big is it? Pro-Line, hosted by Jim Feist, Smokin’ Lary Cockin and Wayne Root will be doing their show live on the sopt. Just dont fall for their best bet schtick.
4. Georgia Tech, 5-2 (6-1). Next: Vanderbilt, 7:30, ESPN Gameplan. Line: GT -11.5
Gutty covers over ACC foes Virgina Tech and Virginia have put the Jackets in the driver’s seat for the ACC and elevated them into the poll this week. Paul Johnson has been covering the spread since his first day at Navy. Now we’ll see how his program handles to role of heavy chalk on a week in and week out basis.
5. Idaho, 6-1 (5-2) Next: Louisiana Tech, 5:00, ESPN Gameplan. Line, Idaho -3
Hard to justify the Vandals this high after giving up 70 points last week, but voters love a Cinderella Story. Besides, it was their first ATS loss of the season. We’ll see if the Vandals were just an early season ride or if they rebound to become money winners from start to finish. I like their chances to rally at home over La Tech this weekend. Just E-pinion.
6. Temple, 5-1 (5-2). Next, Navy, 3:30, CBSC Sports. Line, Navy -7
The Owls got a big win on the road at the Glass Bowl in Toledo last week. The Owls are now 4-0 in league play and have won 12 of their last 20 games outright in MAC Play. Temple 2009 = Buffalo 2008. Look for them in the MAC Title game in December. Not to give away another possible pick for the weekend, but I love this team catching points.
7.) Houston, 5-1 (6-1), Next, So Miss, 1 pm. Line: Houston -7
Do you like laying points? If so, take a look at Houston. With their high octane offense, the Cougars need to have the petal to the metal from the get go to cover the large spreads they will face the rest of the year as they try to win Conference USA. Consective covers as 16- and 17-point chalk the last two weeks pushes them into the top-10.
8.) Oregon, 5-2 (6-1) Next, USC, 8:00, ABC. Line, USC -3
When you’ve covered five games in a row, it puts you in the voters good graces. The Ducks get the nod this week. We’ll see if they can keep their cover streak alive at home this week against the mighty Trojans. USC has been a money burner this season going 2-5 ATS, so this battle for Pac 10 surpemacy is between teams on the opposite end of the profit scale.
9.) Ohio State, 6-2 (6-2) Next, New Mexico State, noon, BTN. Line, OSU -44
Destroying Minnesota last weekend put the Buckeyes back in the positive graces of bettors at the JCB voters. Say what you will about their style, but only UConn, Idaho and CMU have as many covers this year as the Buckeyes. To get a seventh winning ticket, however, Coach Jim Tressel better channel his inner Steve Spurrier (Florida Gator version) as the Bucks are super duper heavy chalk this weekend. They’re laying 44 points to New Mexico State. I was told a few years back to always take underdog catching at least 40 points. Whatever. That’s not what catches my eye here. The O/U total is 48.5. Interesting. Take the underdog and the over and all the Aggies needs is a FG to guarantee a split. Are oddsmakers tipping their hand and calling a shutout here for OSU? This line screams loophole, and I feel we could make money out of it. If only we knew the loophole, of course.
10.) Iowa State, 5-2 (5-2) Next, at Texas A/M, 3:30. Line, TAMU -7
When you win outright as 20-point underdogs for your third cover in a row, you end up sliding into our poll. After being drubbed by Iowa back in Week 2, the ‘Clones have five covers in six attempts. More shocking is that ISU is actually in killer position to win the Big 12 North. Is anyone missing Gene Chizik now?
11.) Tulsa Under, 7-0, Oklahoma Under, 7-0. Next Tulsa: vs SMU, 2:30. Line, O/U 53; Oklahoma: vs Kansas, 7:00, FSN, Line: O/U 48.5
These teams actually qualified for the top 10 per the voters. But, as I said last week, I an a pretty mean Anti-Underite. So, I vetoed them out of the top 10. To avoid voter backlash and a coup here at the JCB, however, we’ve pulled a Spinal Tap. We’re going to 11. The Sooners have been a perfect Under formula: A Defense allowing just 10 points per game and an offense hamstrung by a season ending injury to their all-everything QB. For Tulsa, the numbers have been just too high. People assumer all their games are played in the 40s. Books have been loving it.
