Conference USA takes center stage this evening with Wednesday Night Football. Hosting tonight’s game are the UTEP Miners, perhaps the most disappointing team in the league so far this season.
Billed as an explosive outfit, with a returning QB who nearly had a 4:1 TD/Int ratio a year, the Miners were a trendy darkhorse in the CUSA race. No less of a handicapping expert than Phil Steele, not only put them fourth on his famous Most Improved Team list, but he also tabbed them favorites to win the West and qualify for the league title game. The less famous e-blogger from this blog didnt go as far, but did predict a bowl appearance. They are one of just four teams on that Steele Dog list I track that have losing records when catching points. I’ll let you wonder who the other three are until the end of the piece. So, to see them stumbling around, playing both sloppy and stupid en route to a 2-4 record, comes as a letdown.
Despite their awful start to the season, if the Miners win tonight, they will be in control of their division. In this waste of a season so far, the Miners one shining moment was their 17-point beatdown of nationally ranked Houston on this field earlier in the month. They put up 58 points on the Cougars. For the only time this year, the offense looked like the explosive outfit we expected after last year’s play down the stretch. If they wrap that win with another tonight, they will have head to head wins over both power teams from the West. They duck all the legit competitors from the East. They’ll be 2-1 in league play and with those shiny tiebreakers in their pocket, they could probably afford a loss, if not two, and still grab the Division crown. So this game isnt as much about putting the TV spotlight on a team that has been underachieving as much as its about seeing if a team can rebound and follow through on their sleeper status from the summer. Of course, there is also a chance they continue their disappointing ways tonight.
Vittatoe has regressed as a QB. After 33 TDs last season, he only has five at the season’s midpoint and has tossed more picks than scores. They still cant play any consistent defense. They never get to the QB. And they might be the dumbest team in America. They average nine penalties a game and have had double digit hankies thrown on them in four games this year. Sadly, you wont find any books that will go O/U on you with Miner penalties. Endorse this team at your peril. They will make you pull your hair out if you do.
I really dont think they hang with Tulsa tonight. I feel UTEP has the better rushing attack, at least statistically. And, I generally like underdogs, especially at home, that will likely outrush their opponent. With Donald Buckram, the Miners have something to hang their hat on. He’s gone for close to 700 yards already this season. Tulsa doesnt run the ball, really as a philosophy. This is a perfect place to test this theory, right? Well, maybe not. The Miners just got rolled to the tune of 240 yards by Curtis Steele of Memphis last week in a 15-point loss. Tulsa uses three backs, all get solid yards, but it does not take much to picture one of them going off tonight. Besides, rushing stats might get skewed away from UTEP tonight on sacks alone. The Golden Canes will get to Vittatoe a few times, but I dont think CJ Kinne of Tulsa gets touched all night. So, rushing theory, get the frack outta here.
I am not laying the points with Tulsa either, though. That Houston game makes me wonder if UTEP has something special tonight. And I hate road chalk. Tulsa has not done anything great this year, either, unless you count a 7-point loss at home to Boise in this time slot exactly one week ago. If the Miners werent so mistake prone, I’d love to take this home dog. As it stands, I am sitting this one, but if forced to make a play, I would grab a slice of the over 58. Unless Over 8.5 UTEP penalities is available. Of course, I still have two hour to talk myself into something.
And: the other three teams from the Steele Dog list that are money burners as an underdog this year: Illinois, UCLA and UNLV.
Love the redesign Jamiemac. Keep doin what you do!
Love the redesign Jamiemac. Keep doin what you do!
Did you wind up making any plays tonight? I hope you didn't take the Over. You just had a post about how Tulsa has been an Under machine this year (which surprises me as much as you).
I'm sure you have plenty of ideas for posts (FSU-UNC tomorrow) but I'd love to see a midseason review of the Steele Dogs list. One of the teams from that list that we bet against now is Illinois, but how are the others doing ATS?
Thankfully, I made no plays last night. I am horrible at college totals it seems, so my commentary on this one was more like ‘hey, if you put a gun to my head, this is what I would do.’ Hard to believe how crappy UTEP has played all year, but with wins over highly touted Houston and now Tulsa, they are in the driver’s seat for the dvision. I still cant believe they won. I got killed last weekend and just wasnt interested in doing anything last night. I like the Heels tonight. I’ll probably have a post up sometime late afternoon.
As for the Steele Dogs, that is an excellent suggestion. I’m disappointed in myself that I’ve stopped doing it as a weekly column. Still balancing life and trying to post, I suppose. It was on the list for the week. If I cant get to it, I’ll put something together Sunday and it wll lead off next week.
Did you wind up making any plays tonight? I hope you didn't take the Over. You just had a post about how Tulsa has been an Under machine this year (which surprises me as much as you).
I'm sure you have plenty of ideas for posts (FSU-UNC tomorrow) but I'd love to see a midseason review of the Steele Dogs list. One of the teams from that list that we bet against now is Illinois, but how are the others doing ATS?
Thankfully, I made no plays last night. I am horrible at college totals it seems, so my commentary on this one was more like 'hey, if you put a gun to my head, this is what I would do.' Hard to believe how crappy UTEP has played all year, but with wins over highly touted Houston and now Tulsa, they are in the driver's seat for the dvision. I still cant believe they won. I got killed last weekend and just wasnt interested in doing anything last night. I like the Heels tonight. I'll probably have a post up sometime late afternoon.
As for the Steele Dogs, that is an excellent suggestion. I'm disappointed in myself that I've stopped doing it as a weekly column. Still balancing life and trying to post, I suppose. It was on the list for the week. If I cant get to it, I'll put something together Sunday and it wll lead off next week.