Heading into late October, two college football teams have stood out among the pack as the best of the best. No, not Alabama or Florida. Certainly not Texas. And, I’m not talking about Cincy, Boise or Iowa either.
Nope all those clubs are mere contenders right now, a step behind the top two performing teams in the country. Who are those teams? Isnt it obvious? I’m talking about the UConn Huskies and the Idaho Vandals. While neither program is anywhere near the BCS rankings, both of these clubs have been the top earners in the game that counts the most: The game of odds against the betting house.
Heading into Week 8 of the season, the Huskies and Vandals remain the only teams unbeaten and untied against the spread this season. UConn is 6-0 ATS (4-2 striaght up) while the Vandals clock in at 7-0 (6-1 SU). The programs were 6-6 and 4-7 ATS last season, so there weren’t too many foreshadowing clues that these clubs would evolve into the pointspread monsters of 2009. How are they doing it?
Its impossible to talk about UConn football without mentioning the tragic news of the death of defensive back Jaspar Howard, who was murdered over the weekend. I cant even begin to imagine the emotions, struggles and heartaches that pierce Randy Edsall’s program this morning. It’s as impossible to conjecture just how the team will respond to this during the second half of the schedule.
The most I can do is explain just how Uconn got here. Expected to be a down year, the Huskies were expected to struggle going up against an upgraded schedule. But, they got a tougher-than-it-looks win in Athens over MAC Contender Ohio U and then went down to Baylor and upset the Bears, who still had the talented Robert Griffin in the lineup. The team had UNC and Pitt on the ropes before losing double digit fourth quarters and going down to defeat. Better fourth quarters in those games and the Huskies would also be undefeated straight up. They’ve covered three times as underdog against Baylor, UNC and Pitt. Last week, they handled their first spot of the season as heavy chalk laying 12 points to Louisville and edging out the cover in a 38-25 win.
The combination running of Andre Dixon and Jordan Toddman has replaced the uber productive Donald Brown, the school’s all-time leading rush. The new backfield duo have averaged 185 yards more per game and scored 13 touchdowns. Dixon is coming off a 153-yard performance against Luoisville over the weekend.
The team expected to see an upgrade at the QB position with the insertion of Zach Fraser, former Notre Dame commit and one of the top QB’s in the 2007 recruiting class. They have seen improved play at that position, but it has not been Fraser pulling the trigger. Instead, its been Cody Endres behind center. A combination of avergae play from Fraser, an injury and solid play from Endres in his stead, has forced a change at the top od depth chart. After a solid 14/21 day passing with 243 this past weekend, it appears the job is all Endres right now.
The team is also built on defense, ranking in the toip 30 in total, rushing and scoring defense. Robert Vaughn and Robert McClain have been ballhawkers in the secondary, forcing turnovers in just about every game this season.
Toiling at a place where basketball is king is tough. This is especially true for the football program in Storrs. While the football program is only five-years-old at the BCS level, but the basketball program has been among the nation’s elite for almost 20 years. With that juxtaposition “every game becomes a litmus test” to see if the program can ever achieve the heights of their brethern on the hardwood.
The question now, sadly, becomes how do they respond emotionally and play physically in the wake of the Howard tragedy. He was a key member of both the defensive backfield and special teams and one of those glue guys that kept guys both focused and loose. From a human drama standpoint, we’ll all be watching too see how Uconn rallies, if its possible at all.
Investors will be watching to see if one of this year’s money trains will have enough emotional gas in the tank to keep cashing tickets. They hit the road this week to take on West Virginia. The Huskies currently are 7-point dogs in Morgantown. On one hand, the Huskies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Big East games. On the other hand, they have yet to really solve West Virginia since hooking up with them in the Big East. The ‘Neers have owned this series winning and covering five straight with margins of victory of 12, 32, 26, 45 and 23 points.
As for the Idaho Vandals, their rise has come totally out of nowehere. The Huskies have at least been to four bowl games the last five seasons. That is not the case with the Vandals. Heading into the season, the Vandals had lost 20 of 22 games and have not won as many as five games in a season since 2000. So, for them to be 6-1 SU, let alone 7-0 agaiinst the number, is already a big accomplishment for the program.
I wrote about the Vandals last week when I took a look at the various turnaround jobs being authored throughout the country. They’ve also been featured stars multiple times in Doc Saturday’s mid-major Monday column that he does on his own blog.
The Vandals have turned it around with a fairly explosive offense. QB Nathan Enderle, WRs Max Komar and Eric Greenwood and RBs DeMaundray Woolridge and Princeton McCarty form the core of the WAC’s most explosive offense this side of Boise State. The Vandals have found a scoring groove unlike anything they’ve seen in recent football seasons. Thorugh six games, they’re scoring just under 30 points per game, 10 more points a game than last year’s total average of 19.58.
They’ve showcased a little bit of everything in their current winning streak, Against Northern Illinois, they dominated with the run. Against Colorado State, the run was shut down, but Enderlee tossed for 330 yards. In a nailbiting win over league foe San Jose State, backup QB Brian Reader subbed in for an ineffective Enderle and threw a game winning touchdown pass. Last week, laying chalk for the first time all season, the Vandals throttled (and covered the -7, natch) Hawaii 35-23, with close to 200 yards rushing supplemented by the 80-percent completion rate for Enderlee.
We have not played UConn once this season. Yet, I have been on Idaho twice this year when they were catching points. They are back in the underdog role this week at Nevada. Oddsmakers dont think the public will be convinced that Idaho’s turnaround will continue in Reno. The Vandals are catching a whopping 14 points. I’m not sure Idaho isnt the second best team in the league behind Boise. I wont be able to resist that big number come Saturday. And with games against Boise, La Tech and Fresno between now and the end of the year, there ought to be plenty of chances to get the Vandals as a dog or short fav. I have a feeling this train is not ending.
Would a 9-1 Idaho team traveling to an undefeated Boise State on Novemebr 14 be enough to get the Game Day Crew to go live from the Blue Turf? We’ll see. But, I am pretty excited to jump back aboard the Vandal bandwagon this week and its worth keeping an eye on them the rest of the way.
They may be bowl bound. Who knows, perhaps the ACC wont qualify enough teams to the postseason and bowl matchmakers end up pitting Idaho and UConn together in the local Humanitarian Bowl? It would be a neat story.
On the other end of the spectrum is Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS this season in a year that has been a disaster since the opening kick. The team cant run the football. Juice Williams has regressed badly. Their best defender has a season-ending injury. Ron Zook remains their coach. They’re 11-point dogs going to Purdue this weekend. Maybe they get off the schnide, but the Illini are certainly proving the adage that sometimes it’s not who you bet on, but who you bet against.
In the world of totals, there are not any teams out there whose games have gone Over the total every time out. There are a couple, however, that have seen the Under cash for every game played.
A season after having a record run of 60-point games, the Oklahoma Sooners have ironically become an Under machine hitting it in all six games. Obviously, the Bradford injury has had a major impact on that, but oddsmakers did adust to his injury and the totals still were set too high for people trying to win on the Over. Just as ironically is the fact that the Under is also 6-0 in games played by the up tempo Tulsa Hurricane. Perhaps this information will come in handy tomorrow night when they travel to UTEP for some good old fashioned Wednesday Night Football.
What do you think about the game tonight? I went into it thinking that UTEP might be able to pull of the upset but now that I have looked at everything I am leaning towards a Tulsa blowout. UTEP's defense is awful…I don't know if Tulsa will have to punt.
Well, if you dont think one team will punt, then take a look at the Over.
I have to admit, I am still reeling a bit from the weekend and might need one more day or football wagering…..lol.
Home dogs are always tough to pass up. They did beat Houston on this field a few weeks ago. Its weird how bad UTEP has been, but they put 59 points up on Houston and if they win again tonight, they will really control that Division.
That Houston game is the only thing that has kept me from already putting money on Tulsa.