Monthly Archives: October 2009

Dear Giant Pumpkin: Please Give Me More Treats Than Tricks.

October 31, 2009
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UPDATED TO INCLUDE NIGHT GAMZ

ULM +14 over Troy……..Sun Belt Title realy on the line tonight, both from a straight up and ATS standpoint. Both clubs sport 5-2 marks against the spot. Im taking the puppy. ULM is 16-6 ATS in SBC play, mostly when catching points. Hey, thats what they’re doing tonight. I am in.

South Carolina +6 over Vols……Not sure if the Vols are ready to handle to role of legit favorite. Not sure if they have the offense to blowout out a good team like South Carolina

Okie State +10 over Texas…..This game was close last year in Austin. It will be close tonight. I think we see repeat of last year: Longhorns win, Cowboys cover.

MSU -3 over Minny……this was detailed in Big 10 Picks. Ony really good teams have topped the Spartans this season. This just in: LOLphers are not a good team.

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 3:30 WINDOW OF GAMES

Colorado blows, Purdue swallows. Too harsh? Too harsh! No way, man, this aint no family site.

Iowa is not much better, but I have a strong shot and breaking even here. I took Iowa -10 for the second half, which means I actually have the Hawks +4 for the game. Hey, instead of being down 27, I am only down 6. A split would be nice. Sadly, my QB is still Rick Stanzi.

Alright, picks for the 3:30 window Read more »

The Right To Parlay

October 31, 2009
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[Ed. The following post was written by Parlay-expert and nutritional advisor, Hathachips.]

newsclip1031Now I may not be as dedicated to the sports gambling world as our good friend, James Jonathan Mac, but I have been known to place a few CHIPS down on sporting events, especially in parlay fashion.   What can I say, it’s my bread and butter and it makes me love or hate teams I would normally not care for.

Last week for instance I was rooting for Chad Henne of The Miami Dolphins #1 to throw a pick six vs. the Saints in order for the Saints to cover.  Now being a huge Michigan fan, I wouldn’t normally wish Chad Henne such peril, but I had already won my first 3 games and this was my last hope in cashing in, which I did.

excel1031There are multiple ways to go about betting a parlay, you can take anywhere from 2 games to 12 in most sports books, betting spreads, over/under or the money line.  The more teams picked, the higher the payout but your chances to win decrease brutally.  I will sometimes throw down a 8,10 maybe 12 gamer just for shits and giggles. I mean, $5 to win $9,000?  Who doesn’t love that!?!?!  FACT: I have never won, yet.  Anyways, here are some tips and guidelines I use whilst betting the parlay card.  Here is a typical payout chart to the right:

Deciding between the point spread, over / under or the money line? The saying “beggars’ can’t be choosers” does not apply here in sports gambling (unless your sports book site blows chimp).  Deciding what to pick is entirely up to the bettor.  If a game that could go either way, then stick to the over / under.  You know a team is going to dominate but are questioning if the other team can even make a 1st down or get a run in, then pick the spread.   Don’t like the spread but you know who will win, then take the money line. Tips of the trade, used by yours truly:

  • Start small: play parlay cards that have 2 to 4 picks.  4 picks pays 10 to 1 on sportsbook.com so a $10 wager to win $100 is a good starter.  I like to take my best bets which could be anywhere from 6 to 15 games depending on the week and pick out the top 4.  Put the most $ on these and enjoy the games, simple as that.
  • Stick with familiar teams: Being a fan of Michigan, I tend to throw down more cash on the other Big Ten teams.  I may hate Ohio $tate, but they have covered the spread all but 2 of their 8 games, so it’s worth it to lay down some CHIPS on them.  Teams that get a lot of heavy TV coverage are good to go with also because you can learn their tendencies easier as well as watch them ruin your life, or help you win.  50/50.
  • Avoid games played in Hawaii: Why?  Because Hawaii blows, their games all kick off at 4am and winning your first 3 bets and waiting on Hawaii to finish up will send anyone into a drunken football watching rage.  Just e-pinion.
  • Intangibles: Yes, I said it.  Intangibles as much as they make me laugh, they play a part.
  • Moxie?: Does the team your betting on have a kid with, say…MOXIE? Of course teams do, they all do, but will it matter vs. the opposition?  Tate Jonathan Forcier, Golden Tate, Colt McCoy and many players in the past (Braylon Edwards, Charles Woodson) all have a tendency to bring teams back against the better teams.  Use them to your advantage.
  • NIGHT GAMEZ! – Yes it’s weird, but home teams playing at night tend to have a better chance to win. I assume it’s because the visiting team has to wait around all game and the home crowd is 3 sheets to the wind once they fill the seats. (Take home team dogs in Knight GAMEZ!)
  • Youth: The less experienced, the better chance of FAIL. Simply put.
  • Injuries: Any key players out? Say Timothy Jonathan Tebow is out for a game because he got swine flu circumcising a kid from Indonesia, The moxie fhas multiple games at different times, don’t overload.  Always take the top options at that given time slot first. or Florida is out and if they are a heavy favorite, pick the dog to cover.  It’s worked the last few weeks with his brain injury.
  • Weather forecast: This is used in favor of the Over/Under bets.  Shit weather has a 80% chance of hitting the Under (made up stat).  It’s always crucial to check the weather forecast in games you can’t pick a favorite in. (Home games for the Steelers)
  • GRIT: Is the team gritty? If yes, pick them.
  • Betting websites: Always look to the experts.  Jamie Mac provides an in depth look at what bets are most feasible with excellent points as to why.  Checking the matchup history, team scoring average, etc… are all well worth it when choosing your parlay.
  • PICKS by Time: When picking, there are multiple ways to go. Pick all noon games, 3:30, whatever it will keep your tracking more centralized as well as interesting.  But when the card

With that said, I have some favorites for this weekend that could go the way I plan. Here’s what I’ve wrapped up as parlays for both today and tomorrow’s action: Read more »

JCB Top-10, Week 9

October 29, 2009
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The topsy-turvy world of college football took some frustration out on the Just Cover Blog’s top 10 poll last week. The carnage was severe with five teams going down, burning money all the way. So, what are the ramifications for this week’s poll?  Well, the votes are in and there has almost been a complete turnover in the poll. Out: Nebraska (insert, ‘they turned it over again’ joke right here), Miami, South Carolina and Duke Over. We’ll see if the newbies in this week’s poll have the staying power to remain.

1.) UCONN, 7-0 (4-3). Next: vs Rutgers, noon, ESPN Gameplan. Line: UCONN -8

At least the Huskies hung on to the top spot. We can’t say anything more that has already been said about the Huskies toughness and grit in playing in the wake of their teammate’s murder. We’ll see how much they have emotionally for this game. They took West Virginia down the wire, but find themselves needing to cover heavy chalk to keep their unbeaten season going.

2.) Central Michigan, 6-1 (6-1)  and Boston College, 5-2 (4-3) Next: Each Other, 3:30, ESPNU. Line, BC -6.

The Chippewas and Eagles share the #2 spot this week, but not for long. These two 2009 ATS powers square off against each other this weekend in Chesnut Hill. Boston College is favored by 6 points in this titantic showdown. How big is it? Pro-Line, hosted by Jim Feist, Smokin’ Lary Cockin and Wayne Root will be doing their show live on the sopt. Just dont fall for their best bet schtick.

4. Georgia Tech, 5-2 (6-1). Next: Vanderbilt, 7:30, ESPN Gameplan. Line: GT -11.5

Gutty covers over ACC foes Virgina Tech and Virginia have put the Jackets in the driver’s seat for the ACC and elevated them into the poll this week. Paul Johnson has been covering the spread since his first day at Navy. Now we’ll see how his program handles to role of heavy chalk on a week in and week out basis. Read more »

Thursday Night Football: Heels/Hokies

October 29, 2009
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If you’re thinking of playing tonight’s ACC clash between North Carolina and Virginia Tech (VT -17, O/U 43), then you should think long and hard about laying the heavy chalk with the Hokies and also taking the Under.

History would be on your side with both bets. Since joining the ACC, the Hokies are 31-16 ATS in conference games, including 22-12 at home. They have never had less than four covers in league games since joining the conference. With a 2-2 ATS mark in the ACC with four games left, it’s safe to say that if history holds the Hokies ought to cash more tickets than not between now and the end of November.

As for the total play, Lane Stadium has been an Under palace. In the last 20 games on the Hokies home field, the Under has gone 15-5. I blame it on the Metallica. Although most of it could probably be attributed to the stingy, nasty Bud Foster-coached defenses that for years have called Lane Stadium home. This year is proving no different. Four opponents have walked into Blacksburgh–Marshall, Nebraska, Miami and Boston College–and none have left scoring more than 15 points. With foes averaging just 11.5 points per game in 2009 at Lane Stadium, dont you wonder just how the Heels and their 114th in total and 90th in scoring offense will dent the scoreboard at all. I know I do.

The Heels have been terrible on offense all season long. It;s not an outfit built for any success in a place like Blacksburgh. There is no passing offense to speak of. No deep threat to stretch the field and even if there was I’m not sure TJ Yates, whose thrown as many picks as TDs, could take advantage of that. The passing attack is barely popgun status, averaging just over 5 yards per attempt. Shaun Droughn and Ryan Houston have been competent running the football, but without any fear from Yates and the passing attack, it’s hard not to see the Hokie defense just teeing off and stoning the Heels run game.

The season has been one of underachievement for the Heels. They’ve gone from trendy summer pick to win the league to winless in three ACC starts headed into the final weekend of October. Some might point to the loss of NFL-ready talent Hakeem Nicks from the passing attack. But, one wideout doesn’t force teams to take a step back. I think UNC is merely struggling to live up to expectations while playing all season with a target on their backs. It just shows you that while its hard to take a losing program and take it to a bowl game, it is much harder to maintain that level of success at said school. Last year was only the third bowl game UNC qualified for in the alst 11 years and the have not amde consecuvtive postseason appearances since the Mack Brown ere ended. Folks are bummed that Heels arent an ACC contender this year, but Butch Davis will be shwoing progress just by getting the Heels into a 13th game again.

Even though they’re considered one of the most disappointing teams in the country, it’s not all bad for the Heels. Defensively, they’ve been pretty solid. Up front, they’ve stopped the run and have been able to pressure the QB all season. I’m looking forward to watching DT Robert Quinn and DE Marvin Austin knocking heads with the Hokies offensive front led by eventual first round draft pick Sergio Render. If the Heels can get a defensive push, I think they can thwart the Hokie O and stay in this game tonight. But, that’s a big ‘If.” While the Heels have held five of seven foes to 17 points or less this season, there is that bad taste leftover from last Thursday night when they let FSU basically call their shots offensively, put up 30 points and come from 18 points down to a notch a win in Chapel Hill. Did the defense just let up after getting a big lead? Or is the effort more indicative of what to expect when they go up against the better offenses of the league.

And therin lies the rub for UNC tonight. The Hokies are on the best attacks in the league. Redshirt freshmen Ryan Williams–one of the Hokies most touted running back recruits in the Beamer era–has been a stud all season. He’s averaging almost 120 yards a game, has hit paydirt 11 times and leads the 17th best rushing attack in the country. Then, there is Tyrod Taylor. At times, the kid has been maligned, but he’s following up a strong close to the 2008 season with a breakout performance this season. Did you know he leads the ACC in passing efficiency and that he’s sixth nationally? Now you do. Taylor has given the Hokies points in the passing game with nine touchdowns and he;s only tossed three picks. He still has bouts of inaccuracy, but he has developed int a big play passer, evidence by his 9.8 yards per attempt. Read more »

The Skip Holtz Odd$$$$$

October 28, 2009
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Did you miss Tuesday Night Football last night? I did. For some reason, I thought the game was tonight, and I had been looking forward to dueling TVs going with World Series Game 1 on one screen and hard hitting Conference USA Football on the other. Sigh.

I didnt really have a call on the game as I am taking a break until Saturday. East Carolina ended up curb stomping a Memphis team that appears to be spinning its wheels. The ECU Pirates, however, are not spinning their wheels and look primed for a November run. Get used to seeing them on TV in the next few weeks. They travel to Blacksburgh to play the Hokies next Thursday in a grudge match after upsetting Tech last season. Then, later in the month they play a special Sunday Night Football against Tulsa. Some will bill that as a CUSA Championship Game preview, but the way the standings shake it’s hard to see the loser of that game qualifying, especially if its Tulsa. So that ought to be a dramatic game, as should be the regular season finale aginst Southern Miss. It’s one of  the televsied games over Thanksgiving weekend. That game looks to be the one that will decide the East division and the representative in the following week’s title game.

So, it’s just the start of what should be a rather intriguing month for ECU as they try to defend their Conference USA Title from a year ago. I always have my eye on the Pirates. Head Coach Skip Holtz record against the spread during his ECU tenure speak for itself. I love this team, almost to a fault, when they’re an underdog. They could be catching points in all three games mentioned above.  The other drama worth following is simply the future of Holtz. How long will he stay at ECU? Already a hot coaching commodity, that stock soars even further should he notch another league title. You have to think his eyes are on a bigger job at some point. In discussing things with my “friends” Vito, Paulie and Dawg, here are the on-the-street odds for where Holtz ends up next year. Place your bets.

Illinois, 10-1

Really the favorite on the board. I know they have said the Zooker will be back, but a lot of times those statements are nothing more than mid season lip service. We’ll see how they feel when the season ends at 1-11. And, its headed that way. The Illini are a mess. It’s almost November and they still have not won a game against a Bowl Subdivison foe. It’s so bad that last week’s 10-point loss to Purdue represented progress as the Illini ended up with a push against the Vegas line. Hey, it’s the first time Illini backers–if there are any–didnt lose money all season. I dont know why they’re bothering any more with Zook. They really should just go after a guy like Holtz. They would be going from a coach on the wrong end of the credibility scale to one on the high end of the scale. And, it would upgrade the league to have such a fine coach on board. You know, as a fan of another Big 10 school, let’s forget I even mentioned this.

Louisville, 13-1 Read more »