I have a tendency to break down my games in chronological order separating the slate into three parts and finding picks in the noon, 3:30 and then the night sessions. With the season about to ring my doorbell, lets forego any long winded intro or dramatic setup and just get on with it.
NOONERS FOR YOUR PLEASURE
The noon kicks puts me face-to-face with one of my favorite dance partners over the years: The Navy Midshipman. Alas, I have to take a pass on them here as the Bucks are a big step up in class compared to the lot Navy has built their solid recent success against. It usually takes the effort of the season just for them to hang with Notre Dame, and they should be applauded for it. Folks, Ohio State is not Notre Dame. This is something I dont think the Middie suad is prepared for. Nevertheless, I am pulling for the Middies because keeping this close late into game would be, well, fun. It would be a neat way to start September and the most intriguing string of games on the Buckeyes slate.
I also have to pass on the Gophers, who I cant trust laying a road TD (besides, do we consider them at a disadvantage now playing on the road in the dome?) no matter how putrid Syracuse could be; the Volunteers despite my sneaky belief they might run up the score tomorrow because 30 points seems too steep for a Crompton-led team to climb; Kentucky because you dont get rich by playing this program as bigtime road favorites; and all the assortment of bowl subdivision team vs FCS teams on the slate which if you look long and hard enough you’ll find an offshore somewhere offering a line.
I’m sticking with my previously mentioned small plays on the Steele Underdogs, so that puts me on the side of Akron +28 over Penn State and Toledo +11 over Purdue when the first Saturday off the season kicks off. I think both of these MAC teams can find offensive success against their Big 10 opponents tomorrow, provided we define offensive success as scoring enough points to lose by closer than the experts think.
There’s actually more on the line then you think in the Toledo/Purdue game. Look at the schedules for both teams in the upcoming weeks. Purdue travels to Oregon and hosts Notre Dame before the month is out. Toledo, meanwhile, hosts Colorado and plays Ohio State. The loser here could be half way to a losing season before the month is out and find reaching bowl eligible status impossible without a serious run.
I rest my hope with Toledo covering this number on the fact that I think the Rockets have better personnel on offense than Purdue does. All across the board. As long as QB Aaron Opelt can hold it together and connect on a key play or two, the Rockets will have no trouble scoring points. I love Toledo’s line and deep stable of running backs to keep Purdue on their heels all day. Toledo’s defense, however, is another story and is doing some rebuilding along the front seven. That will allow a Purdue offense thats still in transition some success as well, but we dont care if Toledo wins or not. Just that they keep up. I do feel that Toledo has some strength in the secondary, and I could see this unit thwarting first time starter Joey Elliot into a key pick or two.
By all accounts, I should wash my hands of betting anything called Akron at Penn State. Especially if I’m entertaining thoughts of fading the home Nittany Lions, who are 14-7-1 ATS as home chalk the last four seasons. Did I mention these Steele Dogs cover 55 percent of the time? Yeah, I know those numbers suck compared to what PSU has done at home. But, uh, we’re not here to lean just on historical numbers, right? But in case you are, the Zips have their own technical edge on their resume: They’re 7-1 ATS when catching more than 22 points.
Anyway, I like what Akron has done with their coaching staff this year. Walt Harris was brought in as an assistant to help spruce up the passing game. He has nine returning starters to work with on offense, including a QB who tossed 20 TDs, experienced wideouts and a good offensive line. I think they can do some damage against the Lions. A completely rebuilt secondary will give up a few big plays and be very vulnerable all day to the new passing schemes that they dont have any scouting on. The Nittany Lions can name their score on offense. But, I think they’re going to have a few hiccups in the passing game in this one without the trio of Williams, Norwood and Butler. I said it earlier in the week and I will say it again: While this game might appear to have 48-10 written all over it, instead it will end up looking a lot like the 34-16 score these teams played to to open the 2006 season.
3:30: WHEN SUDDENLY EVERY GAME LOOKS ENTICING
This is where the action picks up. Ironically, I wont be able to watch a single second of it play out live as I will be in Ann Arbor taking in the Western Michigan-Michigan game. At some point in the second half, I will realize how notoriusly poor the scoreboard updates are at Michigan Stadium, and I’ll be on No Spoiler Alert knowing I can just hustle home afterwards and watch them on the DVR. Although the suspense of the picks may have me sending out demanding and urgent text messages to all points of the country in desperate attempts to get a score. 50/50.
Anyway, a quartet of game jump of the page.
Baylor +2.5 over Wake……the third of six Steele Underdogs goes off the board. I really hope the hype around Baylor comes to fruition. It would add an interesting wildcard to the Big 12 South round robin. I love Wake as a road underdog and the longterm thinker in me hopes Wake goes down today to give us some fatter odds in those games later in the season. At home, its a different story. Dont invest in Wake as evidenced by their 8-19-1 ATS record as home chalk.
Nevada +14.5 over Notre Dame……hey, we’re 1-0 in those July picks we highighted waaaaay back when as early season investments. I continue to stand by all my summer analysis here. I just dont think the Irish will be able to stop Nevada enough to cover this big number. The Irish are 7-13 ATS under Weis as home favorite, 9-16 overall. Notre Dame went 1-5 ATS against bowl teams last year.
UGA +6 over Oklahoma State……Everyone thinks Georgia is rebuilding. But, c’mon folks, they still have 15 starters back including their entire starting offensive line and six guys along the defensive front seven. Stafford and Moreno will be tough to replace, but those are just two players, which a program as talented from top to bottomg as Georgia is, should be able to overcome. The Dawgs have advantages along both lines of scrimmage. That more than negates the uneasiness of backing a first time starter at QB on the road. Mark Ritch is 30-4 SU on the road, so if you’re giving me a 6-point head start, I am all ears.
Illinois -6 over Missouri…….And you didnt think I would play a favorite all day, did you? The Illini should resemble much closer to the 2007 outfit than last year. Missouri looks to be in rebuilding mode and they’re not a program that just reloads. Eventually, Juice and Benn will lap the Tigers. Illinois wins by double digits.
UNDER THE LIGHTS: HOPEFULLY WE”RE NOT CHASING
The last three of the Steele Dogs kick off under the lights, all at 7 pm: OU +4 vs UConn; ULM +41 at Texas; and SDSU +20 at UCLA. The more I think about it, I am beginning the think the Bobcats will score the mild home upset. Solich led the program to an upset win over Pitt out of the Big East a few years back and we could see a reprise of sorts here. I am ok with the Aztec pick. I doubt UCLA’s ability to score enough points to cover any big number. ULM? Yeah, well, hey when you’re committed to always playing a theory, these are the hard knocks you have to risk.
Otherwise, I remain convinced, even if its against the grain, that Virginia Tech will win this game against Alabama. Just in case, I will still log the +7. They’ve announced Ryan Williams will start at tailback in place of the out-for-the-season Evans. Williams was more guru approved than his fallen compadre. The difference is Evans emerged last season during Williams redshirt year. I think he’s up to the task. Tech can battle the Tide to at least a standstill in the trenches. By the end of the day, we’ll be talking about the arrival of Tyrod Taylor. Look for his ability as a dual threat to give the Hokies enough of engine to score enough points to do no worse than staying within this number.
Lastly, a late night special: CMU +13.5 over Arizona. I’ve enjoyed playing on the Chippewas in the Dan Lefevour era. He will a huge senior year. I like them to keep this game close against an Arizona team that’s replacing a lot of star power and production on offense. LeFevour can get just enough done on offense to make this interesting. I would be stunned if they got blown out here.
There you go. Eleven picks. Probably more than I would have guessed, but thats bound to happen if we’re going to go to the window everytime we see a Steele Most Improved Team catching points. It paved the way for bets on four MAC teams. It’s opening Saturday and one-third of my plays back teams from the worst league in the game. What could possibly go wrong?
Enjoy the games. Good luck. Be safe. And remember: Blindly following my plays may be hazardous to your wallet.
