Ohmigosh Ohmigosh Ohmigosh! It’s finally here, Merry Football Day!!!!!!!!
Our long, abusive flirtation with fantasy baseball can mercifully end. College football arrives with an abrupt, exciting intervention tonight. We have a west coast special dripping with BCS implications. We have an undercard to that showdown pitting bowl teams from the SEC and ACC against each other. And, enough for-the-diehard action spread out to keep everyone’s college fantasy league tuning in. Oh. Yeah. Also, there might be gambling.
We’ll have at least four posts today. One each for the two national games. A third (which is actually the first) on the deep tracks on the schedule. And a fourth and final one offering up my predictions for the night. That last one will be up around quitting time for the work day on the east coast. I’ll get you started with the games nobody else is talking about.
Bask in football, people, bask in football.
EASTERN KENTUCKY AT INDIANA, 8 PM, BTN. LINE: IU -20
Tune it to see Indiana University win a game. Cynics say it wont happen that often this season.
Despite those dour poopy pants, the Hoosiers open a new era tonight with a refurbished stadium, hoping the increased focus on better facilities may help launch a more successful decade than the last one.
I dont share many people’s guffaws about the Hoosiers quarterback shuffle this offseason. In retrospect, it looks savvy considering Kellen Lewis’ eventual dismissal from the team and school. Even before then, I liked it. Folks, Lewis was not that good, despite his stats and, at times, jaw dropping athletic ability. He played an uneven game. The offense grew too reliant on him and came to a standstill when he was not on his game.You can make a case that the Hoosiers will be running a smoother offense with Ben Chappell behind center, even if it will be a less explosive one.
The other offensive shuffle heading into the season for IU is the decision to scrap the spread offense, in favor of a move to the Pistol Offense. It wont allow Indiana to take the Big 10 by storm, but I think it will make them more competitive than last year with the semi-interested Lewis running the spread formations. It takes advantage of two legitmate Hoosiers strenghts: a deep, talented, if a little untested, stable of tailbacks and a big offensive line. The big uglies upfront have embraced the change with gusto and there are whispers in God’s Country of a potent rushing attack. Indiana also has a good set of tight ends and thee Pistol will allow them to feature 2- and 3-TE sets. That, combined with all five Hoosier OL starters checking in at over 300 lbs , might allow Indiana to control a line of scrimmage for the first time in years.
In tonight’s opener, its worth a look see to see if they can pull off the Pistol with any level of aplomb. If they do, it wont surprise me, especially with nine returning starters on defense and an effective pash rush, to see them lurking all season with a shot at bowl eligibility in the finale against Purdue.
FINALLY THE ARGUING CAN STOP. ALL HAIL EVIDENCE
The debate raged all off season. Now it begins to get settled. We’ve heard the bickering talking points in Muncie, Dekalb and Athens. We’ve endured the responding soundbites screaming back from Dustin, Jonesboro and Murfreesboro. These fanbases have been sniping all offseason about which league is better, and, in a way, these MAC vs Sun Belt arguments have almost become a cliche at this point. So it’ll be a breath of fresh air to put some real life evidence on the table with two games between these two leagues kicking off this evening. With only two more games between these conferences this year, half the final case will be made by the end of the night.
When North Texas travels to Ball State (BSU -16.5, O/U), the obvious angle to track is the Ball State quarterback position. After three seasons of stellar and explosive play from the arm of Nate Davis, the Cardinals will be leaning on a green starter with redshirt freshmen Kelly Page. How he plays will give us a clue as to whether or not an otherwise good-looking Ball State squad can keep up with the Westerns and Centrals of the Mac East Division or if they’ll wallow a bit with the Easterns and Toledos. While he gets his feet wet, expect BSU to lean heavily on the talents of MiQuale Lewis. The tailback churned out 1.700 yards a year ago, yet coaches are determined to find even more use out of him in their gameplan
Troy is the other SBC traveling north into hostile territory when the Trojans square off at venerable Doyt Perry Field against Bowling Green (Troy -7, O/U 60). I, like most people, tabbed Troy as the SBC league favorite. Their public reputation precedes them with the experts in the desert raising them as touchdown road favorites on a field where the hometown Falcons havent been catching points in a game since 2002. That measure alone shows how tough a chore tonight’s game will be for the Falcons against the three-time defending Sun Belt Conference champ.
This could be an explosive game. The starting quarterbacks in this game combined for 35 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions last season. Troy’s Levi Brown and BG’s Tyler Sheehan’s stats tonight could give the Masoli-Moore duel in Boise a statistical run for its money. The Over bandwagon might be the ride tonight.
Both teams deserve some advance scouting attention. Troy plays Florida next week. With Troy’s 10-5 ATS record against BCS foes, we’re checking in to see if they stand any chance of covering the 5-6 touchdown head start they’ll have in Gainesville.
For Bowling Green, they host Boise in two weeks, but more importantly, this is the first of five midweek specials they’ll have on the season. All the other four take place in November and this is a chance to get some visual evidence that might help us be on the right side of those. After all, it is a justcoverblog mandate to go to the window on all midweek November games. Wait, that’s not a rule where you live? Bizarre.
UTAH STATE AT UTAH. LINE: UTAH -20, O/U 60
The Battle of the Beehive State is, well, not this game. This isnt even a game. It’s really a controlled scrimmage for the Utes. Utah has won the last 10 games in the series by an average of 26.8 points with only two games decided by less than 20 points. The Utes have been money making front runners in this game going 7-2-1 ATS in those games. If you lay the chalk tonight, rest easy knowing you have lot of history on your side in this one.
Even though we’re apparently in a Golden Era of Football for the entire state, Utah State is clearly missing out on whatever buzz is out there with seven seasons in a row of three wins or less. Hope can rest in the fact that with 18 starters back ,the man himself, Phil Steele, labelled the Aggies the most improved team in the WAC. Whatever that means.
The Utes, meanwhile, still return a team capable of winning the Mountain West Conference, but some of the individuals that have departed leave gaping holes. It will odd not seeing Brian Johnson, Darrel Mack, Louis Sakoda, Phil Kroger and Sean Smith, all multi-year, high-end collegiate starters, out there for Utah. I’m intrigued to see who stands out in those spots for the Utes in their first taste of live action, even against tonight’s tomato can.
Say what you will about the one-sidedness, the dry run against the Aggies serves a profitable warm up for the Utah program. Here’s a stat to file away for the next 10 days: The Utes at 17-3 ATS in the game after their USU game.
That sure does make next Saturday’s otherwise nondescript game at San Jose more exciting doesnt? So much so that you might as well learn about some of the players tonight. In a way, I suppose I’d like to see Utah struggle a bit and maybe set up a more generous line for them in next week’s historically successful situation. The, uh, rivalry takes a break from the schedule the next two years, so maybe the Aggies can step up and not get blown out for once. To think, you didnt think I could make this game interesting. I’m glad I took the floor.
