Rule #17 here at justcoverblog mandates that at least once a year you stay up late at night to gamble on the obscure Boise State game kicking off when most people go to bed. Whether you’re chasing your bets or letting some winnings ride, always find time to do this and bask in a wacky game played on Blue Turf. An amendment quickly was added to that edict, advising you to always bet on the Broncos. They’ve been chalk in all but three home games the last 11 years on the Smurf Turf, and they’re 41-16 ATS in the role as home favorite.
That is what makes this showdown tonight between Oregon and Boise State all the more vexing for me. You don’t win money by playing against the Broncos on the Smurf Turf. However, the more I have read about and tracked Orregon this summer, a slow realization hit me: Oregon looks to be the better, more balanced team on paper. I detailed some of my wavering on backing the Broncos in a post earlier this week. To sum: Boise cant run the football and probably wont stop the Ducks from running the football when they are on offense. Handicapping 101 says that’s a solid formula for betting on the underdog.
What to do? I still might stay on Boise tonight. I appreciate what I see happening with the line movement, and that may trump whatever statistical angles and research I may otherwsie do. Let me explain.
A couple years back, I actually got a behind the scenes look at how a street bookie operates. The Bill of Rights allows me the right to not detail my role any farther. But, what I learned is that Bookies hate, nay despite, Boise State. Nobody thinks twice anymore about laying four touchdowns with the Broncos. A lot of folks are able to either chase away their losses on the day or add to their winnings by making one last call to the Bookie, leaving a message and being a worthless chalk eating motherfucker. Week in and week out, my boss, er guy, got crushed by Boise backers. It got so bad, we tried to ban, or at least curtail, that practice by cutting off betting at 7 pm, especially after we determined that more than half the Boise bets were coming in within 30 minutes of the late night kickoff.
The Broncos have been killing oddsmakers for years, which is what makes tonight’s line moevements all the more compelling. The line opened at most online books in late July at Boise -6. Where is the line today, you ask? Boise is still favored, but the line has dropped all the way to Boise -3. Line shifts occur in an attempt to even out the action. Such a radical drop, even over time of the last month, tells me that an inordinate amount of action has been cast with the visiting Ducks. There is a ton of public money on the Ducks tonight. As a result, for the first time in, well, ever, the Books will be pulling for a Boise cover on the Blue Turf.
Call me crazy, but despite my earlier wavering, I’d rather be in the same boat with the Bookies as opposed to the public. I have never met a cash poor bookie, mostly because they clean up on the public’s tide of sentiment. Of course, maybe Boise falls flat tonight and the bookies disdain for the Broncos continues to grow. We’ll see.
Anyway, onto to tonight’s showdown. I dont need to spew too much more. We all know what the stakes are. This is no obscure Thursday Night Special. It’s spiced up with all sorts of eventual BCS implications. Boise is looking to throw its hat in the ring in the chase for a big money bowl invite. This game will define their season. A win tonight puts them on that path. A loss will relegate them to pre-Christmas Day Bowl status before its even gauche to wear white. SB Nation’s One Bronco Nation Under God offers a comprehensive preview for the neckbeards among us
As for the Ducks, they need to protect the Pac 10′s turf for what has been a slow takeover of the Pacidic Northwest from the upstarts from the Potato State. After the steady, guiding hand of program builder Mike Belotti, how will this team respond to Chip Kelly as head coach in game situations? Boise is known for having a few tricks up their sleeve, but dollars to doughnuts says Kelly tries to leave his mark on the game through his own gadget plays. Emotions are certain to ride high in this one, but can the new coach keep his team in the business-like mode it’ll need to be in to come out with a win? The Ducks look powerful on offense and we’ll learn tonight if they have any chance of residing with the USCs and Cals in the Pac 10 race.
Hatred is also in the air. Oregon smarts from last year’s defeat in Eugene. And, they remain livid at the late hit that took QB Masoli out of the contest. They want revenge and they have not been quiet about their intentions to go into Boise and do a little dream wrecking. The animosity has spilled over to the fans as well, who have been shredding each other on message boards all summer long. Both fanbase are shockingly confident their team will win. When one team begins to fall apart, find the nearest Cover It Live and enjoy the panic, angst and heartbreak.
Here are some of my personal keys to watch:
– Can the Ducks contain the Boise passing attack. I’ve wrung my hands about the Broncs stopping the Duck rushing attack, but lets not forget that Oregon is rebuilding quite a bit on defense too. Can their secondary hold up? If Boise QB Kellen Moore is able to bomb away all day, the Blue Turf will start rocking and the Ducks could be in trouble
–Turnovers are always important. D’uh, thanks my the insight Einstein. I know, its simplistic, but we all know that Boise spanked Oregon State on two occassions when the Beavers ventured into Boise. What got those games rolling in the wrong direction for the Pac 10 visitor, were lethal turnovers, including pick-6′s, early in the contest. If there is a defensive strength for either of these teams tonight, its the Boise secondary. Can they get the tide turning turnover? It’s going to be tough because Masoli is very efficient and barely threw any picks last year. A 2-INT night out of him, would be the exception to the rule that his game his showed so far.
–The overall chippiness could rival any grudge match from the bitter fueds between Oakland and Denver in that NFL rivalry’s heyday. Will the refs keep control of the game?
–The QB duel between Moore and Masoli will be a blast. The victory will probably go to whichever QB plays better.
Personally, I find it difficult to not bet on Boise, at home, with such a short number. Its a bargain basement price. Expect to laying something like 3-4 touchdowns in all the rest of their home games. I usually have no trouble doing that. Part of me feels, I should take them on principle at such a cheap price. It might be years before they are this short a home favorite again.
Maybe the price is cheap for a reason and I am walking into a trap. I still have a while before determing to bet on this game. It’s going to be a blast to watch, so is the added juice of a bet all that necessary? I mean, I’m lathered up already that legit football is on tonight. Maybe, I ought to sit back and enjoy it. And crash a CIL or two.
I’ll be back in 3-4 hours with official predictions and picks for the opening night of the 2009 college football seaosn.
