Hokies, Wolf Pack, Broncos Oh My! Wait, Maybe Not Broncos.

Back in those Halycon days of, I dont know, lets call them June, July and August, I talked a big game about taking at look at each weekend of the upcoming college football season and pre-picking games to go to the window with using the Games of the Year lines released by the offshores.

Yeah, about that. I only did the first two weeks. I think it’s a neat idea, a summer roadmap to football estimated profits, if you will. I’ll be better organized with my approach next off season, and we’ll do it. And it will be fun, dammit.

But, give me some credit (maybe, with a few W’s, right, I understand) on those that I did present. With the first games beginning tomorrow, let’s look back to the bold picks for Week One made several weeks ago when I circled Boise State, Nevada and Virginia Tech as winners against the spot.

Do I still feel confident in those games now that summer camp is over and the games are finally here? Yes. Also: No fucking way.

Despite losing running Darren Evans for the season to a knee injury, I’m remain bullish not only on the Hokies season, but also in in liking them this weekend over highly touted Alabama. Remember, the Hokies are nearly as highly touted, and it’s not merely a symptom of returning the 1,000 yards in production of Evans.

As far as Saturday night’s matchup, there is no way an experienced Bud Foster coached defense gets run out of the building facing a team with a first time starting quarterback and a reshuffled offensive line replacing its top three players from a year ago. Despite the presence of all world Julio Jones on the outside, the Hokie defense is more established than the Tide offense. I dont see Alabama dropping anything close to the number they did on Clemson in this game like they did last year.

In the wake of the Evans injury the question is do the Hokies have any chance to move the ball against a defense from Alabama that has been drowning in pre season hype all August.?

Personlly, I dont feel the Evans loss is as big a loss as people make it out to be. The Hokies have brought in one stud tailback per recruiting class for three years running. Look for Ryan Williams and David Wilson to live up to their guru approval ratings and shine in Evans absence.

I’m a believer in Tyrod Taylor. I loved how his game evolved last year. If you looking for evidence that he can succeed against the mighty Tide, look no farther than last season’s ACC Title game vs Boston College. 

The Eagles have had one of the game’s best rush defenses led by eventual first round draft pick BJ Raji.  The Hokies hardly dominated, but Taylor’s legs gave the offense enough of an engine that they sustained succesful scoring drives throughout. The Hokie interior line remains anchored by Sergio Rinder and they stoned Raji more than enough to nuetralizehim  last December. I dont think they’re going to overmatched, let alone intimidated, by Terrance Cody and company.

And, the news this week that the Tide could be without starting defensive end Brandon Deaderick after a shotting incident over the weekend makes me think even more that the Hokies can match the Tide strength for strength here. Thats just one of many health related issues that could cripple the Tide this weekend. Not only has the flu swept through their camp, but Jone and fellow WR Mark Ingraham have been banged up all summer camp and have been limited.

I also love this line movement. Originally, the Golden Nugget in downtown Vegas set the line at -4 back in June. However, none of the on lines I use issued any lines until the end of July. When they did, the Tide were a steeper -5.5 chalk. Now in the wake of the Evans injury and the overall hype on Bama fueled by the Year 3 of Saban meme, the line has further mushroomed. The Hokies are getting a full touchdown. Only a special team deserves to be favored over Beamer’s charges by a full 7 points. It remains to be seen if the Tide is such a special team. Or, for that matter, if the Hokies arent every bit as special.

I still think this game is a coin flip. Getting a seven point head start almost feels like cheating.

Speaking of too generous, lets head up to Boise, where my July confidence has withered. When the line was released by my Book, it too had been inflated from the Nugget’s June line. Instead of four points, the Boise State Broncos were 6-point favorites. Frankly, I think that’s way too generous.

I’m scared to death that Boise wont be able to contain the rushing attack of Oregon. They werent great run stoppers last year, but now face one of the best rushing teams in the nation last season. They’re doing so with two key defensive tackles, having lost one to a three-game suspension, the other to a season ending knee injury this August. With less talent manning the first line of defense, how in the world do they win the battle up front and keep LaGarrette Blount from shredding the defense for close to 200 yards? The public is skeptical, too, as this line has plunged back down to 4.5.

Here’s where the rubber meets the road. Underdogs who outrush their foe, cover the spread about 70 percent of the time. Oregon will run, run, run. Boise, meanwhile, will pass, pass, pass. I think its a good bet that Oregon completely dominates the rushing side of the stat sheet. Doing so historically points to a point spread cover.

Despite that, I still wont do a complete 180 and bet Oregon. Betting against Boise on the Blue Turf is not a good strategy. Instead, I might just sit back Thursday night and enjoy what might be one of the more explosive and heated games of the season. These teams (and fans) dont like each other and it might be more fun to sit back, watch this play out and relish the meltdowns on the various fan blogs without having a true stake in this.

No sugarcoat: The best part of the night might be CIL crashing at Boise and Oregon blogs. Trust me, the fans on both sides have been freaking out and screaming at each other on message boards all summer. Might as well throw a baseball or two at the hornet’s nest and have a little fun on Opening Night of the season.

I am, however, still more than on board with the third game of this set. Nevada plus the points over Notre Dame.

Initial indications showed that the Irish might be 17 -point chalk. The real line was not as generous, as it was released as -13. The Irish are getting a lot of love this August and the line had jumped to 14 points.

I dont like the Irish against any good team laying that many points. They have been awful against the spread at home with a 21-36 ATS mark since the Holtz era ended. Those numbers have trended worse under current coach Charlie Weiss, with the Irish logging a 7-14 ATS mark under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus.

Nevada will run all day long and have three guys in their backfield that have 1,000 yard seasons to their credit. All of them will be deployed against an Irish defensive outfit that is nothing more than average. In fact, they are breaking in a lot of young, first time starters in the front 7. I think they will fail enough times trying to play assignment football against the tricky pistol offense that Nevada wont have problems moving the ball down the field.

It will be a tense afternoon in South Bend as this game remains in doubt well into the second half. I see a 38-27 type of score.

Keep your money on Virginia Tech and Nevada on Saturday. But, I have thought twice and, as of now, have decided against putting any cash on tomorrow’s showdown in Boise. And, of course, there will be more picks later in the week.

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