Monthly Archives: September 2009

At Long Last, Wednesday Night Football Is Back

September 30, 2009
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You know the football season is finally in full bloom when Wendesday and Tuesday night games begin to pop up on the slate. On the final day of September, those days are finally here and expect these  games to be part of the landscape virtually every week through Thanksgiving. Thank you, Football Gods, Blessed Be Your Names.

Tonight the WAC takes center stage with Hawaii travelling to the mainland, and then some, to quaint Rusin, Lousisiana to take on the La Tech Bulldogs. It’s a mere 4,000 mile trip. The game might not make the casual observer think twice, but college football neckbeards understand that important and tight bowl positioning is on the line tonight. Both teams expect to finish in the upper division in the WAC standings and to secure one of the three bowl bids (four if Boise eventually qualifies for a BCS Bowl) guaranteed to the league. With the struggles of Nevada during the first month of play, this could also be a battle for the inside track to be the next-in-line challenger to Boise for the conference top spot. Hawaii feels like it has higher hopes than mere bowl eligibility. With Fresno and Boise visiting the Island later in the season, a road win tonight sets them up as a legit threat for the league crown.

For Hawaii, the scrpit is pretty easy to read. If the Warriors just get to bowl eligibility, they likely will snare a bowl bid. In uncertain economic times, it helps to have a bowl game played in your home stadium. Other than 2007 when Hawaii ran the tables and snagged a Sugar Bowl invite, every other time they’ve been to a bowl game this decade, it’s been in whatever derivative the Hawaii Bowl is being called. A win tonight puts less pressure on this pursuit later in the season when big games against Boise, Navy and Wisconsin loom.  Hawaii feels like it has higher hopes than mere bowl eligibility. With Fresno and Boise visiting the Island later in the season, a road win tonight sets them up as a legit threat for the league crown.

Off to a 2-1 start, the Warriors appear to have their passing mojo back. They are moving the chains consistently QB Greg Alexander with their four wideout attack. Defensively, they’ve palyed well, but have not faced a competent offense and the Bulldogs will certainly test them with RB Daniel Porter and one of the WAC’s top offensive lines. But, Hawaii’s front seven has been strong this season and will get a big boost with the return of active OLB John Fonoti, who debuts tonight after missing the start of the season with a knee injury.

Meanwhile, for Louisiana Tech it’s been some heady times. Coached by Derek Dooley, son of famous Georgia coach Vince, the Bulldogs won their first bowl since 1977 last season. Their 5-3 league mark season equalled more wins in WAC play than in the previous two years combined. But, are those times on the wane? Slogging to a 1-2 start isn’t as disappointing as the manner in which it was done. The Bulldogs fancied themselves as upset contenders against Auburn and Navy earlier in the season, but saw both of those foes easily have their way with them. A nice win over Nichols State didnt appear to ease anyone’s concerns as a team meeting was held immediaetly afterwards to discuss team leadership. Dooley says the team lost its nerve center from last year and the young replacements are still trying to replace those intangible elements of the program. With three of their next four on the road, the Bulldogs have a lot riding on this game as a loss will make getting to a second straight bowl game a tougher road to travel.

That’s the setup. The question is then who covers? I think Tech will play well. And, I am a big fan of Porter and expect him to have a breakout game to jumpstart the rest of his season. At home, with a Red-Out in Rustin, they are the deserved favorite to win this game. Read more »

NFL Week 3, 4:15 Games

September 27, 2009
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C’mon San Fran, hold on, will ya! Up 24-20, two minutes to go. We have them at +7.

Late kicks:

Buffy +6 over New Orleans

Buffy/New Orleans Over 51

Cincy +3.5 over Pittsburgh

Raiders +3 over Denver

Indy +3 over Arizona…..remember we’re going against the Cards as the Super Bowl Loser every time they’re favored at home this season.

Good luck out there.

NFL Week 3

September 27, 2009
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There’s a big hulaballoo in Minneapolis with Brett Favre making his home debut with the 2-0 Vikings. Unfortuneatly, a game that looked like a walk over back in the summer, could not be tougher now with the equally 2-0 49ers in town.

Sanf Fran is 7-4 since Singletary took over and he has quickly remade the 49ers into his image, tough and intense. They have the look of the tradional losing record to surprise division winner, something that seems to happen to two teams every year. I have had an average start–and thats being kind–in the NFL, but won each week with the 49ers. We’re no fools, we’re sticking with what’s work and that’s it.

San Francisco +7 over Minnesota.

Maybe a couple picks for the late games, we’ll see.

NFL record: 4-5

Saturday Night

September 26, 2009
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A 5-2 start was nice. A 2-3 finish took a bit out of the winnings.

Anyway, onto tonight:

Two more of those Steele Dogs: Toledo +1 over Florida Internation, Ohio Bobcat$ +22 over Tennessee.

Some Pac 10 action: Oregon State -2.5 over Arizona, UW +9 over Stanford.

The final two games of this week’s Big 10 Picks: Iowa +10 over Penn State, ND/Purdue Over 59.5

Texas Tech -1 over Houston

Sorry for the late notice and lack of write ups. A little too much tailgating. I cant focus to write.

Saturday Week Four

September 26, 2009
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Final Saturday of September. This season is going way way way too fast. By the time I get the hang of hacking out of daily blog posts, the season will be over. That’s alright, we’ll be active all winter tracking college basketball, so we’ll get this down eventually. I dont intend posting on the blog just picks and just on game days. I guess we’re easing into it. It’s been fun and the picks have been mostly winners. With South Carolina the other night, the rcollege football ecord stands at 32-24-2. Last week was a struggle just to scrape to an 8-8 mark, so hopefully the Thursday win is a sign of good tidings ahead.

I’ll start off by highlighting my Big 10 Picks for the weekend. An extensive post, as always, is in the Diary section of MGoBlog. This specific column is 10-3 this season and you can make a case its the reason why we’re even ahead at all here a Just Cover.  This week we have MSU +3, Minny +1, UM -20.5, UM Over 54, OSU +14.5, ND Over 59.5, Iowa +10.

As for the remainder of the day, a quiet card:

Fresno +17 over Cincy. The Bulldog pick begins with the fact that Fresno is 16-3 ATS as non conference dogs of more than 5 points and 21-7-1 ATS overall as an underdog against BCS foes. Both records include a cover in an overtime loss to Wisconsin two weeks ago. Everyone knows the calling card of Fresno. They play the big boys. Usually scare them all the way to the end. Spring the upset every now and then. Get outclassed by Boise. So far, so typical. They ran toe to toe at Camp Randall against Wisco, but again were Boise’s whipping boy last week. Now, they’re back as heavier dogs against a hot BCS team.  After today they head in full WAC play where they likely will play down to their competition and drop a couple of games. But, we’ll be back first in line come December 5 when they play Illinois.  So, of course, I’ll keep following the program history and identity today and roll with the Bulldogs against the Bearcats. Cincy has become the new darling of the college football world. The betting public has bought in with this line rising from -14 on Sunday to -17 this morning. I’m fading the public bandwagon in this one.

Miami to win (moneyline -140) over Virgina Tech  In Jacory I Trust. It’s take a lot for my to fade the Hokies at home, but I am jumping on this Cane bandwagon right now. Technically, i was in at the ground level taking them over the Noles, but I kinda sorta actually bailed on them by taking Georgia Tech last week. Um, is my seat still available? I hope so. Look, I’ve back Tyrod Taylor in these pages, but I can admit he’s taken some steps back, last week’s final seconds heroics not withstanding. He’ll get there, but right now he’s slumping and he might not have the downfield help to bail him out. I was correct about the emergence of Ryan Williams, but I think the Canes can contain him and make this offense average like its been in previous showdowns against Alabama and Nebraska. But it really comes down to Harris, a player I have been quite taken with this young season. I trust him to QB his team to big victory a lot more than I do Taylor. It’s not even close. I’ll take him to make the second half plays the inexperience Nebraska QB could not make last week at Lane Stadium. Miami takes absolute control of the ACC Atlantic with a win and sets up another biggie next week at home against the Sooners.

Arkansas +17.5 at Alabama I am giving the Hogs another chance. Perhaps they’re a better buy as a sneaking underdog, rather than one that needs to win like the line dictated last week against Georgia. The Hogs are going to put points on the board, so I like them getting such a hefty head start. They might need it. And, hey Petrino will play Mallett all day regardless, there is a strong potential of an Alabama 41-17 fourth quarter lead getting chopped by a TD and ducking just under the number with a garbage TD pass. The Hogs are also a Phil Steele Most Improved Team and those are clubs we’ve documented at this site to be good buys when catching points. So to0 are SEC double digit dogs, who are 45-19-1 since the beginning of the 2006 season. Read more »