Monthly Archives: July 2009

Preseason Bowl Chronicles: St Petersburg Bowl Hosts Sunshine State Rivalry

July 21, 2009
By

Have you ever wondered who had the better middle-of-the-pack also rans, the Big East or Conference USA? Well, that’s what we have the St. Petersburg Bowl for as reps from those leagues will hook up. With those kind of stakes, it’s a near lock that the bowl, in only its second year, will develop into a fixture for the Most Wonderful TIme of the Year. If organizers could only get those ruffians at the WLA to stop calling it the Leningrad Bowl, then a January date is surely in its future. Book it.

Both of these leagues will need to go six deep to get qualifiers here, but I dont think that will be a problem. Each conference has had six bowl eligible teams for three years running and had this bowl and this tie-in both existed the whole time, all of those teams would have played an extra game.

Initially, I planned on calling UCONN for this game, because I think they might have the worst record of the eventual Big East bowlers. But, upon further reviewing, we’re selecting the USF Bulls to play the UCF Golden Knights.

Obviously, practical reasons exist for these selections. With a questionable economy, the movers and shakers of the bowl world will do just enough manipulation to keep teams close to home as possible. For the St Petersburg Bowl, its a perfect time to get together these in state rivals for a local showdown. It will likely boost attendance and buzz, both important factors for a bowl that’s just 2-years-old.

Many folks probably have higher expectations for USF, but I dont.  For starters, they have never lost less than three Big East games in any season since they joined the league and went 2-5 in confernece play last year. While they should breeze through their first three games of the season, I find it difficult seeing them doing any better than alternating wins and losses once league play begins, especially since out of conference grudge matches against Florida State and Miami Florida are sprinkled in once autumn arrives. If they dont improve their 2-5 league mark or get scalps of the Noles or Canes, they might not win enough to become bowl eligible.

Also: Matt Grothe remains their quarterback. For some reason, many in the MSM love this kid’s game. I go the other way. I think he’s terrible and his inconsistent play has really held the program back the last couple of years. I need to confer with a linguist, but I believe Grothe was a word the Ancient Incas used to mean Interception Machine. I dont know, maybe something gets lost in translation. Read more »

Preseason Bowl Chronicles: New Mexico Bowl Seeks Cinderella

July 20, 2009
By

Ed Note: We dont do ranking countdowns at justcoverblog. We count down Bowl Projections. With 34 bowls to project and only 45 days until the beginning of the season, we’ll unveil a bowl projection almost every day until then. Today, we breakdown which mid majors will convene for the New Mexico Bowl.

 

For the fourth year in a row, the Mountain West and Western Athletic conferences will swap paint in the New Mexico Bowl as part of the bowl extravaganza. This season, it will be the very first bowl played of the season on December 19. I trust you’re aware that we are within the 150-day window until that event. Of course, you are.

One thing history tells us about this matchup is do not be surprised if a team from far off the rail notches an invite. In 2006, San Jose State made an appearance after five straight losing records. Last year, Colorado State won this game on the heels of 4- and 3-win seasons.

I have no problem calling for another Cinderella run to Albuquerque and a 13th game. In fact, I’m grabbing a team from the deep end of the pool to qualify. Hey, it’s my first bowl prediction of the site. I might as well do something attention grabbing.

To that end, I’m calling for San Diego State to come out of the MWC to play the WAC’s Fresno State in the bowl season lid lifter.

San Diego State!?!? The same Aztecs team that has had 10 consecutive losing records? The same Aztec program that has seen two straight head coaches come and go without a winning season? You have got to be kidding me!

Yes, that one. San Diego State. University of. In San Diego. Read more »

Mushing Aces

July 18, 2009
By

Gambling and I aren’t dating again. But, we are sleeping with each other this weekend. We got a little caught up with the start of the second half of the baseball season, and we could not keep our hands off each other, I guess.

So far, the fireworks have not been there, with a 2-3 record so far. But, the weekend is not over and with two games in progress (White Sox over the O’s and Mets over the Braves) we could be back over .500 by dinnertime. Or, doing a walk of shame. 50/50

Whats revealing about sleeping with Gambling again is just how sharp my jinxing powers are, even after a lay off. Eddie Mush has nothing on me.

Some background: I only bet college and pro football and college basketball with any regularity. Every now and then I wade into the waters of professional basketball and hockey during the winter. I am, however, an avid player during those sports postseasons. Usually I will have won money during March Madness and with house money in the pocket, I have found fun betting series, futures and occassional games during the NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs.  During that time, I will also drop a few bets on baseball games because, well, they’re on the board. Remember, a gambler’s money knows no home, after all.

I did well this year with the Stanley Cup playoffs. Not so much with the NBA. I’m looking at you Cleveland!

A funny thing happened, though, as the postseason runs navigated through May. I got hot on the bases. I was beginning to think with the intense fantasy league I play in with my friends that I had somehow learned the league inside out. I was betting the entire West Coast card, passing out on my couch watching Extra Innings before two innings were in the books and waking up a couple hours later to a blank screen. But, I was also winning most of those games and pouring myself victory drinks before turning in officially for the night. I was a professional gambler.

Yeah, well those times never last. I went through a June Swoon that only the 1999 Cubs could be proud of. The sportsbook sent over their Asian cooler to watch games with me. I still was not going to gamble past the Finals, per my rule, but the finish line was in sight with a nice profit margin. I limited my plays, but put more cash on them, a strategy I probably should not have employed. Regardless, everything I touched burned up in front of me. It was brutal. Even a fantasy team in the middle of a five-week winning streak was not providing any solace. Read more »

Book It Breaks Seal, Places First Bet Of Season

July 16, 2009
By

 I wont lie.

Despite the overwhelming evidence that Super Bowl losers are a good bet to lose more games the following year, I am uneasy about expecting that trend to continue with the 2009 Cardinals. I laid out strong numbers last month making the case for another historic,  hungover fall from grace for the Super Bowl loser. With the Cardinals notching nine wins a year ago, the oddsmakers have set Arizona’s O/U total for regular season wins at 8.5. To go Under that total, all Arizona needs to do is lose at least one more game this year than last, an ignoble achievement all but one of the last 15 Super Bowl runners-up have managed.

Normally, I would dive in with that kind of history of my side. With the Cardinals, however, I am wading toe first into water. Here’s three reasons why:

1.) The NFC West. None of the other three teams in the dvision had a winning record last year with two coming in with no more than four. The second place team has had six losing seasons in a row. Arizona owns a 16-8 mark against these guys over the last four seasons. They could easily bank more than half the wins needed to equal last season’s win mark in divisional play alone. I expect the Seahawks and 49ers to be improved, but they also have a lot of question marks. We’ll have to keep a close eye on their camps to see if they’re ready to compete with the Cards. If so, maybe I’ll start thinking about going at least neck deep in the water.

2.) I fear taking Unders. I am always incomfortable taking Unders. Its like rooting for failure. And, if a flurry of points are scored early, you spend the rest of the game begging for failure and not having any fun on the ride. Anyway, here’s my qualm with this Under: You would expect a hot Super Bowl runner up to come back the following year with a double digit O/U total for regular season wins. The Cards check in at 8.5. While some may say its a tell tale sign that even the experts in the desert expect the Cards to have a mediocre fall out, I automatically am concerned by such a low-looking total. All the Cards need to do is capture last January’s magic for three weeks or so this season, and the Under will be toast.

3.) The Cards have an easy final lap. Their final four games of the season look dough boy soft and ready made for a strong closing kick.  Arizona closes at San Francisco and at Detroit before wrapping up on a two-game homestand against St. Louis and Green Bay. Those teams went a combined 15-49 in 2008. Even if the Cards plod along all season, the specter of a winning streak looms at the end of the year. I can see a 6-6 Arizona team closing 3-1 against that bunch to come into the barn at 9-7. You could also see them easily missing the playoffs in that scenario, which would be in the spirit of the Super Bowl hangover, but still bust the under bet of 8.5 wins. Read more »

Book It Breaks Seal, Places First Bet Of Season

July 16, 2009
By

 I wont lie.

Despite the overwhelming evidence that Super Bowl losers are a good bet to lose more games the following year, I am uneasy about expecting that trend to continue with the 2009 Cardinals. I laid out strong numbers last month making the case for another historic,  hungover fall from grace for the Super Bowl loser. With the Cardinals notching nine wins a year ago, the oddsmakers have set Arizona’s O/U total for regular season wins at 8.5. To go Under that total, all Arizona needs to do is lose at least one more game this year than last, an ignoble achievement all but one of the last 15 Super Bowl runners-up have managed.

Normally, I would dive in with that kind of history of my side. With the Cardinals, however, I am wading toe first into water. Here’s three reasons why:

1.) The NFC West. None of the other three teams in the dvision had a winning record last year with two coming in with no more than four. The second place team has had six losing seasons in a row. Arizona owns a 16-8 mark against these guys over the last four seasons. They could easily bank more than half the wins needed to equal last season’s win mark in divisional play alone. I expect the Seahawks and 49ers to be improved, but they also have a lot of question marks. We’ll have to keep a close eye on their camps to see if they’re ready to compete with the Cards. If so, maybe I’ll start thinking about going at least neck deep in the water.

2.) I fear taking Unders. I am always incomfortable taking Unders. Its like rooting for failure. And, if a flurry of points are scored early, you spend the rest of the game begging for failure and not having any fun on the ride. Anyway, here’s my qualm with this Under: You would expect a hot Super Bowl runner up to come back the following year with a double digit O/U total for regular season wins. The Cards check in at 8.5. While some may say its a tell tale sign that even the experts in the desert expect the Cards to have a mediocre fall out, I automatically am concerned by such a low-looking total. All the Cards need to do is capture last January’s magic for three weeks or so this season, and the Under will be toast.

3.) The Cards have an easy final lap. Their final four games of the season look dough boy soft and ready made for a strong closing kick.  Arizona closes at San Francisco and at Detroit before wrapping up on a two-game homestand against St. Louis and Green Bay. Those teams went a combined 15-49 in 2008. Even if the Cards plod along all season, the specter of a winning streak looms at the end of the year. I can see a 6-6 Arizona team closing 3-1 against that bunch to come into the barn at 9-7. You could also see them easily missing the playoffs in that scenario, which would be in the spirit of the Super Bowl hangover, but still bust the under bet of 8.5 wins. Read more »