Estimated Prophet Puts Money Where His Blue Turf Mouth Is

Believe it or not, but oddsmakers have already released dozens of college football point spreads for the upcoming season. We’ll take a week by week look at the odds and try to pick a few winners along the way. Expect a post in this series every 2-3 days through the end of August. Most of the odds are behind paywalls at the various sportsbooks, but they can be viewed at the forum Capping The Game, along with some compelling discussion. Today, we take a look at the opening weekend of the season, which begins in a mere 38 days.

Opening night of the new season gives us a chance to back one of the best home field advantages in the country and at the cheapest price you will ever see it. And, since I chirped loudly about Boise State’s chances against Oregon earlier in the summer, it is also a chance right out of the blocks to put my money where my mouth is.

Boise State -4 vs Oregon, 9/3 (Thurs), 10:15, ESPN

The season starts out with a bang thanks to this  Thursday night West Coast special thats one of the best out of conference games of the season and carries instant BCS implications.  I’m taking the home Broncos in this one and here are a few reasons why:

1. The home numbers for Boise are staggering. These stats are  probably fairly well known by this point, but, its been a long off season, so I will throw them out there: The Broncos are 43-20 ATS at home since Vegas began spotting the club a regular line. Boise usually lays three to four touchdowns in chalk on the Smurf Turf, and have been 30-point or more favorites 10 times since 2003 (they gone 7-2-1 ATS in those games, by the way). It’s been nearly three years since the Broncos were laying single digits at home, but they’re 7-0 ATS in that role all-time. I have to grab them at this rate on mere principle alone.
2.  We already have evidence that Boise is the better program. I’ll prove this be leaning on the Broncos matchups with both Oregon schools. Oregon and Oregon State are equal programs. Both have proven to be good matchups for Boise in recent years. In five games combined, they’ve covered the spread all five times. Twice, the Beavers strolled into Boise, in 2004 and 2006,  and left demoralized and shell shocked after 19 and 28 point beatdowns. Everyone knows Boise went up to Autzen last year and beat the Ducks. I would not be shocked if Boise smokes them at home they way they spanked Oregon State when they came to town. While many are calling for another undefeated season for Boise, the Football Outsiders have bucked that trend calling for two losses and giving the Broncos a 50/50 at best shot at beating Oregon. I disagree that Boise is merely 50/50 to win at home against anybody but the rarified air of the college football elites. Not only will they win this game, but based on how other Pac 10 schools have done on the Blue Turf there is strong chance they win going away.
3. THE BOISE SECONDARY WILL BE THE BEST UNIT ON THE FIELD: You can poke holes in both clubs. Both have to rebuild much of their front seven on defense. Both have to replace high-end, longtime producers at certain skill positions. Oregon gave up a lot of points last season. What’s the basis of improvement in 2009 considering just five starters return and they must replace to their defensive line star and a pair of First Team All Pac 10 players in the secondary from a year ago.  Oregon also has to replace their top four players from what was one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Ducks running game was absolutely on fire to close out last season, but you have to doubt the offensive line will gell enough, especially in the first game, to even come close to picking up where they left off a year ago. Boise, meanwhile, struggled at times running the football last season, in a surprise development, but can they rebound without Face-Of-The-Program Ian Johnson leading the way? The one unit from both teams that standout and offer a clear advantage is Boise State’s secondary, which ranks among the best in the country, and overall pass defense. Boise returns a total of 20 Interceptions and 46 pass break ups. Three starters return, including two who won all league honors last season. The new starter George Illoka has big shoes to fill replacing free safety Ellis Powers, a first team All Wac last season, but in his spot duty, he managed to be fourth on the team in tackles and had four picks, six pass break ups and 5.5 tackles for a loss.  The Boise secondary is the only defensive unit in this game that isn’t rebuilding and a question mark.

Here’s the deal. This will be a shootout. Boise’s Kellen Moore and Oregon’s Jeremiah Masoli will have a big days. Both teams will have 100-yard rushers will John Avery and LaGarrette Blount. But, Boise, thanks their great secondary, will offer the most defensive game. I see them forcing at least a couple of turnovers, scoring defensive points and generally thwarting Oregon’s vertical offense just enough to allow the Broncos to win by at least a touchdown.

Nevada +17 over Notre Dame, 9/5, 3:30, NBC

The Irish are only 2-8 ATS under Charlie Weis as double digit home favorites. For years, Notre Dame has burned money in the favorite role underneath the eyes of Touchdown Jesus. They’re only 21-36-1 as favorites in Notre Dame Stadium since Lou Holtz left town. Those numbers are trending worse during Mr. Schematic Advantage’s era with a 7-14 mark.

Those numbers already make me interested in fading the Irish at home. The question is will Nevada have enough to stick within the number?  And, in my mind, the answer is absolutely yes.

I think the Irish’s defense will have their hands full all day keeping Nevada’s tricky pistol offense and varied rushing attack in check. Notre Dame is soft up front, allowing more than 4 yards per carry in eight of their 12 games last year. I am not sold on their stoppers on the line. There is talent within the linebacking corps, but they will be relying on two guys, Steve Filer and Manti Teo, who will be making their first starts, the latter making his collegiate debut. Stud recruits, to be sure, but I think they’ll make enough mistakes against Nevada’s quirky looks to allow the Wolf Pack plenty of big plays and scoring chances. Colin Kaepernick, Van Taua give them a pair of 1,000 yard rushers. The Pack also returns three full time starters and two part time starters to the line and the services of Luke Lippincott, an 1,000 yard rusher from 2007 who sat out last season with an injury. They peeled off 6.1 yards per carry last season and will at times will carve up the Irish front, keeping Claussen and company off the field.

Make no mistake, Classen and his receivers will bomb away on the Pack. This I dont doubt. Whether this game is close or a blowout, people will be salivating at the possibilities of the rest of the season with some of the playmaking this group will do in the opener. But, Nevada could push back a bit with their defensive line. They match up well with Notre Dame’s highly touted, yet underwhelming line. The Pack can get to the QB and played solid against the run significantly decreasing their yards allowed and per carry from 2007 to 2008. The Irish were one dimensional last year because they could not run the ball. I dont think that will change against Nevada.

Unless the Nevada’s players freeze and wilt under the spell of the Golden Dome and the Leprechauns, I feel Nevada will virtually go point for point in a shootout straight out of the old days of the WAC. Even if early jitters set them back, they have plenty of experience to steady the ship and plenty offense and enough of cushion to still grab the cash under the 17-point spread. I’m thinking something like 42-31. The Over is certainly worth a look when totals are released during game week.

Virginia Tech +4 over Alabama, 9/5, 8:00 pm, ESPN.

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