My call for BYU to win the MWC in 2009 begins and ends with these numbers, courtesy of Phil Steele’s preseason magazine: The last four times BYU has had a senior quarterback, they have won their conference title. Going back further into program history, whenever BYU has hd a senior starting QB they have a combined 106-23-2 record.
Good enough for me, especially with Max Hall back at the controls after throwing for a shade under 4,000 yards and accounting for 39 total touchdowns during his junior campaign.
I also like the fact that fellow offensive playmakers Harvey Unga and Dennis Pitta have healed from injuries which dogged them at different times in 2008. Behind this trio of stars, the Cougars will have no problem hanging 35 or more points against just about everyone on their schedule.
Defensively, look for one of the most experienced units seen in BYU iduringrecent years to improve upon last year’s results, which dipped from the previous two years efforts. After avergaing 4 returning starters over the last 5 years, the Cougars have eight back this season including two ALL MWC performers from a year ago at DE and LB.
The Cougars have gone 2-2 while playing four different Pac 10 teams during their Las Vegas Bowl monopoly. They will see their fifth different Pac 10 program this time around when the Stanford Cardinal arrive in town to make their first bowl appearance in eight years.
I was actually bullish on the Cardinal a year ago. They had a great opening night win over Oregon State and stood at 5-4 and on the edge of bowl eligibility. However, they closed with a Murder’s Row (Oregon, USC and Cal) and lost three straight to close the season. In the Oregon loss, the Ducks scored in the waning seconds. Had that play gone the other way, the Cardinal would have bowl eligible last year.
Coach Jim Harbaugh is rapidly improving Stanford. Last year, they improved by more than a touchdown in points per game. That was done in spite of supbar quarterbacking that threw more picks than TDs and managed to only be the 103rd best aerial attack in the land. This year redshirt freshman Andrew Luck, one of the prized quarterback recruits from the 2008 class, will be taking over the position. His inexperience might not better that TD/INT rate, but his talent ought to let him stretch the field better and make the team at least competent at moving the football through the air when its needed. They’re still going to be excellent rushing the football with Toby Gerhart returning to run behind an experienced, if not a little retooled, offensive line. If Luck’s talent does lead to better QB production, then this offense will take another step forward and average more than 30 points a game.
Defensively, it’s going to be the same: A good pass rush, but spotty secondary play. We’ll see if more cumulative experience in the back four entering this season than previous ones and an overhaul through better health and some position switches from the offense will help out.
Something that could help out the whole team is the influx of a talented freshmen class. Harbaugh has made great strides on the recruiting circuit. One of those jewels will be on display with Luck. His 2009 class was a stunner with a half dozen Rivals 4-stars and considered by some to be the best recruiting class in the conference not dwelling in Los Angeles. Players on offense like Tyler Gafney and Levine Toilio and defense like Shayne Skov could sprinkle enough added talent into the mix to push the Cardinal into easy bowl eligibility.
This is Harbaugh’s best team so far at Stanford. They were a very good football team last year at home and have seven games on the Farm in 2009. I think they can threaten 7-8 wins, but even if they head into the finale with the same 5-6 record they had in 2008, I still like their bowl chances. With bowl eligibility on the line, I think the Cardinal beat Notre Dame on Thansgiving weekend. Oddmakers have already made Standford a 5.5-point dog in that contest. I love them so much in that spot. I’m not even sure its a guarantee the Cardinal will be catching any points come game week.
EARLY LAS VEGAS BOWL PREDICTION: BYU wont be as ho-hum about the same old bowl trip to Vegas as people will make it out to be. They’ll be juiced to play a team from the big, bad Pac-10. Stanford will have spent the last couple of weeks celebrating a break through season. Their mission is accomplished, so to speak. BYU will be too tough an out for Stanford as the Cougars win in Max Hall’s swan song.
