Projecting the New Orleans Bowl gives us an opportunity to do something we’ve been chomping at the bit all offseason to do: Break down the Sun Belt Conference race.
The Sun Belt winner gets a bid here against against a Conference USA foe. And, for the first time in these bowl projections, we gat a chance to make a call on a champion.
For my money, the nod out of the Sun Belt has to go Troy. They are the premeir program in the league and have racked up three straight 6-1 Sun Belt seasons earning no worse than a share of the title each time.
Offensively, its going to hard for Sun Belt teams to stop them. Eight starters return after scoring in excess of 32 points per game two years running. Among that crowd includes Quarterback Levi Brown, who emerged from a muddled competition in midseason to throw 15 touchdowns and just three INTs en route to winning SBC Newcomer of the year; Dujuan Harris, a 1,200-yard tailback who was first team all SBC; Jerrel Jerrigan, a first team all SBC at WR last year and three starters back on the offensive line, two of whom earned Second Team All SBC last year. The offense could also see a potent weapon develop in redshirt freshmen Josh Jarboe, one of the best WRs in the 2008 recruiting class, who transferred to Troy after a You Tube rapping incident got him tossed out of Oklahoma.
Troy exceeded 30 points in every SBC game last year and in 12 of their last 14 league games. Look for Troy to put up big numbers again all season in conference games.
Defensively, some retooling will be needed with just five returning starters, but all five made the first or second team all league teams last year. With bookend DEs Brandon Lang and Cameron Sheffield, they have the best pass rush in the league. With Boris Leee and Bear Woods, they have a pair of 100-tackle a season linebackers. With Jorrick Calvin, they arguably have the best cornerback in the lead. For a program thats allowed just 19.4, 15.1 and 16.7 points per game in league play in each of the last three campaigns, that ought to be enough to remain a stingy outfit in conference showdowns.
The Trojans primary challenge will come from Florida Atlantic, the only other team outside of Troy to have winning conference records in each of the last three seasons. FAU has three-year starter Rusty Smith, who regressed a spell from his sophomore year, running the offense and with seven other starters joining him, they could rival Troy in explosivness. Unlike Troy, they are completely rebuilding their defense and need to replace their top six tacklers, their entire linebacking crew and top sack and swipe artists. Conventional wisdom says the Sun Belt will be decided during the November 21 clash between Troy and FAU, but will the Owls defensive rebuild fast enough to even allow that matchup to be winner take all? That remains to be seen.
Even if f it does, I’ll still take Troy to win on their field anyday with the Trojans being 36-5 at home this decade.
As for who they will play, lets continue our streak of picking losing teams to rally into a bowl and tab Mike Price’s UTEP Miners. Not only have we projected three teams already to go from a losing season to a bowl game, but two have come from the Conference USA.
The league has six bowl ties and each of the last three years have had six bowl eligible teams. Why not expect that to continue? Houston, Tulsa, Southern Miss and East Carolina are too established to fall and will be battling for their respective division titles. Rice and Memphis, bowl qualifiers a year ago, wont make it back. Its hard to imagine Rice getting back to a bowl after the departure off all world QB/WR combo Jarrett Lee and Sam Dillard. Memphis has a brutal 12-game slate that is going to make netting six wins a big chore. I picked UCF to take one of their spots in my St Petersburg Bowl projection earlier in the week.
Why will UTEP fill that final void? How about an explosive passing game that will pick up where Rice left off last year. Trevor Vittatoe tossed 33 touchdowns last seasons while getting better each week. Four of his top five targets return as well, so their petal will be at the metal from the get go. They also have a favorable slate getting division favorites Houston and Tulsa at home and ducking the top two teams from the East in Southern Miss and ECU. When you look at last year’s 5-7 record and this year’s slate all that is separating UTEP from bowl eligibility is games against Buffalo and New Mexico State.
They lost to both schools last year, but a win in either–say the one point loss to NMSU during which Vittatoe didnt play after the first quarter because of an injury–and UTEP is at least bowl eligible in 2008. They get the Bulls at home this season in the opener and with UB having to replace a ton of talent from a magical team, I think the Miners return the favor this year. As for NMSU, the Aggies are awful and while the game is in Las Cruces, they wont lose this time with Vattatoe playing. They were good enough to get four wins in league play last season and with one of the easiest conference slates they will at least notch four again in 2009.
I am not alone with UTEP. Phil Steele actually picks this team to win the West and play in the league championship game. The schedule is his biggest factor.
I’m not ready to go that far. The defense has got a lot of work to do and probably wont get enough stops in some of the bigger games to allow the Miners to win the league. Also, they’ve developed a habit of weak closing kicks and faltering down the stretch, so I cant call for them to sniff first place when a three-game road trip in November is on the slate. In the end, Marshall travels to UTEP in the season finale and the winner in that game will probably notch bowl eligibility and land here or in St. Petersburg. I give the edge to team with Vittatoe.
EARLY NEW ORLEANS BOWL PREDICTION: UTEP and Troy will be an explosive game and the Vegas O/U will be at least 74. I think I lost everytime last bowl season when I took an Over in this total ballpark. I need to put somebody in charge of convincing me they dont release totals during bowl season, Anyway, look for Troy to pull this one out since they will be bringing a defense into the game and UTEP wont be.
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