Have you ever wondered who had the better middle-of-the-pack also rans, the Big East or Conference USA? Well, that’s what we have the St. Petersburg Bowl for as reps from those leagues will hook up. With those kind of stakes, it’s a near lock that the bowl, in only its second year, will develop into a fixture for the Most Wonderful TIme of the Year. If organizers could only get those ruffians at the WLA to stop calling it the Leningrad Bowl, then a January date is surely in its future. Book it.
Both of these leagues will need to go six deep to get qualifiers here, but I dont think that will be a problem. Each conference has had six bowl eligible teams for three years running and had this bowl and this tie-in both existed the whole time, all of those teams would have played an extra game.
Initially, I planned on calling UCONN for this game, because I think they might have the worst record of the eventual Big East bowlers. But, upon further reviewing, we’re selecting the USF Bulls to play the UCF Golden Knights.
Obviously, practical reasons exist for these selections. With a questionable economy, the movers and shakers of the bowl world will do just enough manipulation to keep teams close to home as possible. For the St Petersburg Bowl, its a perfect time to get together these in state rivals for a local showdown. It will likely boost attendance and buzz, both important factors for a bowl that’s just 2-years-old.
Many folks probably have higher expectations for USF, but I dont. For starters, they have never lost less than three Big East games in any season since they joined the league and went 2-5 in confernece play last year. While they should breeze through their first three games of the season, I find it difficult seeing them doing any better than alternating wins and losses once league play begins, especially since out of conference grudge matches against Florida State and Miami Florida are sprinkled in once autumn arrives. If they dont improve their 2-5 league mark or get scalps of the Noles or Canes, they might not win enough to become bowl eligible.
Also: Matt Grothe remains their quarterback. For some reason, many in the MSM love this kid’s game. I go the other way. I think he’s terrible and his inconsistent play has really held the program back the last couple of years. I need to confer with a linguist, but I believe Grothe was a word the Ancient Incas used to mean Interception Machine. I dont know, maybe something gets lost in translation.
Every time the Bulls are primed for a breakout moment, Grothe’s innacuracy comes back to haunt them. There was the 4 interception first half against Cincy in 2007 that knocked the Bulls off the inside track for the league title. How about that year’s Sun Bowl when Grothe personally destroyed my Under bet by running the pick 6 play over and over against Oregon setting the Ducks up for easy scores and a route of the Bulls? Or, the entire league season in 2008 when he put a 4 TD, 12 INT effort on the board in Big East games not involving Syracuse. The Bulls went 1-5 in those games. I just dont see Grothe, and, by extension, the Bulls improving much and getting into one of the league’s more plush bowl games.
Instead, the will play home team in the St. Petersburg Bowl for the second straight season, where they will end up knocking heads with the UCF Knights from down the road in Orlando.
Here’s the deal with UCF in the five years of the George O’Leary era: 2004, 0-11; 2005, 9-5; 2006, 4-8; 2007 10-4; and 2008, 4-8. Volleying back and forth between losing and winning seasons, the ball is back in the winning season’s court. With a lot of experience returning, I like the chances of this trend repeating.
Offensively, the Knights have mirrored this back and forth. In the good seasons, UCF saw at least a two touchdown jump in points scored per game. With nine starters and every important player back from last’s year offense, there is no reason to think that O’Leary, always a quality play caller, cant put together another offense capable of winning big in this conference.
Defensively, they have the makings of a nice front seven and have made huge strides in stopping the run the last couple of seasons. For the first time in three years, the team returns the same defensive coordinator, so instead of learning new ropes, they should improve overall as a unit thanks to coaching cohesiveness. Still, they wont be close to a shut down unit and have to replace the entire secondary.
I see UCF going 5-2 in their seven home games, with likely wins over Samford, Buffalo, Memphis, Marshall and Tulane and likely losses to Miami Florida and Houston. In each of the last four seasons, UCF hase finished no worse than .500 on the road in league play and are 10-6 overall in that span. Based on that, I give them wins on the road against rebuilding Rice and expected cellar dweller UAB. They will more than likely lose at Southern Miss, ECU and Texas. That’s a 7-5 record.
In CUSA, half the teams will make a bowl game. We can eliminate UAB and Tulane, the probable last place division teams. Rice is going through a rebuilding year after losing a core that included 22 seniors and some of the program’s best players in history. They will be too buried underneath a tough first half schedule to rally on the back half and return to the postseason. SMU will be improved, but I cant take a flier on a program off consecutive 1-win seasons. Meanwhile, UTEP, ECU, Southern Miss, Tulsa and Houston will be in the top-5 and snare bowls. That leaves UCF, Memphis and Marshall to compete for the final spot. The Knights have the better quarterback and get both those teams at home. That will be the difference between five and seven wins and continue O’Leary’s alternating path at the school.
EARLY ST PETERSBURG BOWL PREDICTION: This breaks perfectly for bowl organizers who would have a local Florida rivalry team to prop up attendance and excitement. The Bulls and Knights have met twice in recent seasons, with the Bulls winning in 2006 and 2007, the latter in overtime. While the Knights might be out for revenge, the Bulls have more talent and will stay above UCF in the state pecking order after a notching their second straight St. Petersbug Bowl win.
