Ed Note: We dont do ranking countdowns at justcoverblog. We count down Bowl Projections. With 34 bowls to project and only 45 days until the beginning of the season, we’ll unveil a bowl projection almost every day until then. Today, we breakdown which mid majors will convene for the New Mexico Bowl.
For the fourth year in a row, the Mountain West and Western Athletic conferences will swap paint in the New Mexico Bowl as part of the bowl extravaganza. This season, it will be the very first bowl played of the season on December 19. I trust you’re aware that we are within the 150-day window until that event. Of course, you are.
One thing history tells us about this matchup is do not be surprised if a team from far off the rail notches an invite. In 2006, San Jose State made an appearance after five straight losing records. Last year, Colorado State won this game on the heels of 4- and 3-win seasons.
I have no problem calling for another Cinderella run to Albuquerque and a 13th game. In fact, I’m grabbing a team from the deep end of the pool to qualify. Hey, it’s my first bowl prediction of the site. I might as well do something attention grabbing.
To that end, I’m calling for San Diego State to come out of the MWC to play the WAC’s Fresno State in the bowl season lid lifter.
San Diego State!?!? The same Aztecs team that has had 10 consecutive losing records? The same Aztec program that has seen two straight head coaches come and go without a winning season? You have got to be kidding me!
Yes, that one. San Diego State. University of. In San Diego.
Gimme a break, just how stoned are you? I’m done with this blog.
I wont dignify that with a response. But, I will justify the Aztecs and hopefully gain at least one reader from the northern Tijuana area to replace your departure.
Among the middle-of-the-pack MWC teams that will be vying for this spot all fall, the Aztecs have the easiest non conference schedule and can add wins the others will not. I see the Aztecs going no worse than 3-1 in their OOC slate with games at UCLA, at Idaho and at home against Southern Utah and New Mexico State.
Contrast that to their rivals in this race. Colorado State with games at Colorado and home against Nevada probably won’t do better than 2-2. UNLV is in the same boat with Oregon State and at Nevada on the slate. The Rebels also host Hawaii, a program they’re a meager 6-12 against all time. Wyoming hosts Texas, travels to Colorado and also treks cross country to play at Florida Atlantic, a team thats won bowls games in each of the last two years.
I can’t see any of those teams carrying a winning non conference record. The Aztecs will, allowing them to not need a much jump in production in league play to still qualify for a bowl. If they follow through with a 3-1 out of league mark, then the Aztecs will only need three conference wins, something they’ve achieved in six of the last nine seasons, to reach the bowl threshold.
Beyond schedule mathematics, the main thing that catches my eye with San Diego State is their coaching staff. No program in the country bettered themselves more through coaching changes than the Aztecs. And, it will provide enough of an improvement and short term intangible edge to climb from the bottom of the league into the middle of the pack and notch bowl eligibility in the process.
Brady Hoke is an upgrade at Head Coach merely because it gives the program its first taste of experience in that role. Its last two head coaches had never been a head coach before. Hoke not only has, but he elevated a program to new heights, ending with three straight winning seasons in league play and consecutive bowl appearances. It may have taken him four years to produce a bowl team, but its not like he was underachieving either at Ball State where they had grown accustomed to losing seasons.
Hoke already has made what could be his best two moves of the season, ones that could help engineer a quicker turnaround in San Diego than in Muncie. He hired an amazing set of coordinators.
Running the offense is Al Borges, one of the most successful offensive coordinators over the last dozen years. He won a pair of assistant coach of the year awards when he ran UCLA’s offense in the late 1990s and at Auburn his Tiger teams lead the SEC in scoring in 2004 and 2005. He was shown the door after 2007, collateral damage in Auburn’s sudden move to the spread offense. After taking a year off, he’s landed in San Diego with eight returning starters and one of the more established quarterbacks in the league. I think the influence of Borges could push this offense into the top half scoring and yard wise in the Mountain West. There probably isnt a more motivated coodinator out there than Borges.
Unless, of course, you’re talking about. . . .
Rocky Long, the Aztecs new defensive coordinator. He had been the head coach at league rival New Mexico. He led the Lobos to four bowl games the last six years, but after a dismal 3-9 season was shown the door. The defense has been a mess the last two years under the previous regime. Now a unit with seven starters returning will be led by a coach who not only knows this league inside and out, but has proven to be one of the better defensive minds over the last decade in the league. Now he can focus just on defense without all the other trappings that come with being a head coach. He has the mind to produce a unit to take advantage of those edges and he has at SDSU and good set of linebackers to have an immediate impact there with his aggressive 3-5-3 defense.
Its almost shocking the plush coaching situation the Aztec program suddenly finds itself in. Overnight, the Aztecs are led by a head coach with bowl appearances puncuating a similar rebuiilding project and perhaps the best pair of coordinators in the league. That has the equal more wins for the Aztecs, don’t you think?
Coming through on this prediction will rely on a few things. Namely, this coaching meme created above playing out in reality. And, Nevada delivering blows to Aztec rivals (UNLV and CSU) in non league action. Sophomore quarterback Ryan Lindley’s play will have a say in this as well. He must follow up a nice, steady first year where he tossed 15 scores against just 6 picks, with an even better encore. And, with Borges guiding him, I tdont hink thats not an out-of-line expectation.
Lindley is not the best quarterback in the MWC. That title belongs to BYU’s Max Hall. But, he does have the biggest arm in the league and, by extension, is one of the conference”s more intriguing professional prospects. Hoke did not have success at Ball State until he got Nate Davis to campus and cultivated the quarterback through his career. Hoke arrives in San Diego with quite possibly his new Nate Davis already there and established.
I think it all adds up to a quick surge in wins that will break the program’s streak of losing regular seasons and get at least six wins and bowl eligibility. The problem is its a better bet that BYU, TCU, Utah and Air Force will have better records and go bowling. THe MWV only has four tie-ins, so where is the room for a fifth bowler?
The league has had five qualifiers each of the last two seasons. Last year heir unbeaten league champ played in the BCS, paving the way for an extra fifth bid. I dont see the league champion playing in a big money bowl this year, but I do think the league has accorded enough cache that an extra team from their roster will be picked when inevitably one of the BCS leagues fall short of candidates. Think Utah in the Independence Bowl because there won’t be enough SEC teams. Or TCU in the Houston Bowl because the Big 12 will have already maxed out. Or BYU to the Humanitarian because the ACC can’t squeeze out their reuired eight bids. You get the picture. That leaves the fifth and final qualifier for this spot in the New Mexico Bowl.
San Diego State will grab it. They will be ahead of the pack with their non league record and will do enough in league play to stay ahead. After the 3-1 OOC mark, the Aztecs will lose at Air Force, at Utah and at home against BYU and TCU. They will beat Wyoming and New Mexico (gotta think Long will have the perfect plan to beat his old program), so that’s a 5-5 record with two more games left to crunch: at Colorado State in late October and at UNLV in the finale. These are expected to be their prime competitors for the fifth spot. For example, Doc Saturday tabs CSU as a bowler while Phil Steele, in his magazine, projects a UNLV 13th game as fifthe bowlers from the Mountain West.
I think the CSU Rams will regress a bit this season. They lose a ton of offensive identity with the departures of Gatrell Johnson, Kyle Bell and Billy Farris. They needed everything they brought to the table for a late run last year that qualified them for a bowl at the last minute. As for Vegas, I like their potential, but I cant project a team into a bowl game that has not won a league road game in five years and won’t do any better than .500 in non league play.
Despite playing these swing games on the road, I like San Diego State’s chances. Believe it or not, but history suggests they will win both of them. The road team is 9-2 in the CSU/SDSU series, and the Aztecs have won four of their last five in Fort Collins. They’ve won three straight overall against UNLV and six of the last seven, including three of five in Sin City. As bad as things have been over the years for the Aztecs, they have tasted success on the road in these teams’ stadiums. Since I think they will improve this year, I dont have a problem calling them no worse than 1-1 against this duo. That’s six wins and bowl eligibility, right there.
Who knows? It could all come down to the final game of the year when the Rebels and Aztecs play, with the winner nabbing the stakes to the New Mexico Bowl. You should really begin planing your Thanksgiving weekend around that possibility.
As for their eventual foe in this game, it will be Fresno State out of the WAC making a return trip to Albuquerque after losing a shootout to CSU last December. Let me explain, briefly. I promise.
The WAC will get at least three bids, maybe four if Boise runs the table or is attratctive enough to a bigger bowl. A few other things could break as well allowing for even a fifth bid out of the league. I’m not ready to predict any of that just yet, so for now I have got the third place team in the WAC slotted for this bowl.
Boise and Nevada are the clear 1-2 in the league. Fresno and Louisiana Tech will battle it out for third and fourth place. Their head-to-head this season is in the Valley and that, combined with Fresno having won two of three against Tech gives my nod to Pat Hill’s club. La Tech may yet get a bowl bid and I’ll slot them elsewhere if I convince myself that Boise is headed for better things than the standard WAC bowl alliances.
Fresno has had seven winning seasons in WAC play the last nine years, with the other years coming into the barn at 4-4. They might need another winning record to scramble into bowl eligibility considering their OOC slate includes road games at Wisconsin, Cincinnati and Illinois. I don’t doubt that Fresno will go 5-3 in league play. And, don’t discount them in OOC play. This decade alone the Bulldogs are 21-8 ATS against BCS teams and own 14 outright victories against the Big Boys. Something for you Investors to think about when those games do roll around.
They will be inexperienced, yet talented at the QB position, but they will be able to run the football against everyone on their schedule with one of the better offensive lines on the west coast and a deep stable of proven and productive tailbacks. They have struggled to stop people in recent seasons, but return more experience than they have at any recent time, so they should improve somewhat on that side of the ball. They finished 2008 with a double digit negative turnover margin (-11) and, as our Phil Steele Bible reminds us, since 1996, 80 percent of those teams have rebounded the following season to at least equal or exceed that season’s win total. Considering Fresno won seven games a year ago, that stat gives me comfort that the Bulldogs will be in a bowl game again, even if they dont qualify for this specific game.
EARLY NEW MEXICO BOWL PREDICTION: San Diego State will be jacked about breaking its long bowl drought. Fresno State will be unspired to be back in Albuquerque and playing a non-BCS team (Hill’s clubs are 0-4 against mid majors in bowl games). The Aztecs wrap up their best season in years with a win and Brady Hoke spends his third bowl season as one of the hot commodities on the coaching market.
the only bowl that matters is the Rose Bowl. Please skip ahead to that.
Rose Bowl granddaddy of BOWLS but also PARADES. No Sugarcoat.