Monthly Archives: July 2009

Estimated Prophet Puts Money Where His Blue Turf Mouth Is

July 27, 2009
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Believe it or not, but oddsmakers have already released dozens of college football point spreads for the upcoming season. We’ll take a week by week look at the odds and try to pick a few winners along the way. Expect a post in this series every 2-3 days through the end of August. Most of the odds are behind paywalls at the various sportsbooks, but they can be viewed at the forum Capping The Game, along with some compelling discussion. Today, we take a look at the opening weekend of the season, which begins in a mere 38 days.

Opening night of the new season gives us a chance to back one of the best home field advantages in the country and at the cheapest price you will ever see it. And, since I chirped loudly about Boise State’s chances against Oregon earlier in the summer, it is also a chance right out of the blocks to put my money where my mouth is.

Boise State -4 vs Oregon, 9/3 (Thurs), 10:15, ESPN

The season starts out with a bang thanks to this  Thursday night West Coast special thats one of the best out of conference games of the season and carries instant BCS implications.  I’m taking the home Broncos in this one and here are a few reasons why:

  1. The home numbers for Boise are staggering. These stats are  probably fairly well known by this point, but, its been a long off season, so I will throw them out there: The Broncos are 43-20 ATS at home since Vegas began spotting the club a regular line. Boise usually lays three to four touchdowns in chalk on the Smurf Turf, and have been 30-point or more favorites 10 times since 2003 (they gone 7-2-1 ATS in those games, by the way). It’s been nearly three years since the Broncos were laying single digits at home, but they’re 7-0 ATS in that role all-time. I have to grab them at this rate on mere principle alone.
  2.  We already have evidence that Boise is the better program. I’ll prove this be leaning on the Broncos matchups with both Oregon schools. Oregon and Oregon State are equal programs. Both have proven to be good matchups for Boise in recent years. In five games combined, they’ve covered the spread all five times. Twice, the Beavers strolled into Boise, in 2004 and 2006,  and left demoralized and shell shocked after 19 and 28 point beatdowns. Everyone knows Boise went up to Autzen last year and beat the Ducks. I would not be shocked if Boise smokes them at home they way they spanked Oregon State when they came to town. While many are calling for another undefeated season for Boise, the Football Outsiders have bucked that trend calling for two losses and giving the Broncos a 50/50 at best shot at beating Oregon. I disagree that Boise is merely 50/50 to win at home against anybody but the rarified air of the college football elites. Not only will they win this game, but based on how other Pac 10 schools have done on the Blue Turf there is strong chance they win going away.
  3. THE BOISE SECONDARY WILL BE THE BEST UNIT ON THE FIELD: You can poke holes in both clubs. Both have to rebuild much of their front seven on defense. Both have to replace high-end, longtime producers at certain skill positions. Oregon gave up a lot of points last season. What’s the basis of improvement in 2009 considering just five starters return and they must replace to their defensive line star and a pair of First Team All Pac 10 players in the secondary from a year ago.  Oregon also has to replace their top four players from what was one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Ducks running game was absolutely on fire to close out last season, but you have to doubt the offensive line will gell enough, especially in the first game, to even come close to picking up where they left off a year ago. Boise, meanwhile, struggled at times running the football last season, in a surprise development, but can they rebound without Face-Of-The-Program Ian Johnson leading the way? The one unit from both teams that standout and offer a clear advantage is Boise State’s secondary, which ranks among the best in the country, and overall pass defense. Boise returns a total of 20 Interceptions and 46 pass break ups. Three starters return, including two who won all league honors last season. The new starter George Illoka has big shoes to fill replacing free safety Ellis Powers, a first team All Wac last season, but in his spot duty, he managed to be fourth on the team in tackles and had four picks, six pass break ups and 5.5 tackles for a loss.  The Boise secondary is the only defensive unit in this game that isn’t rebuilding and a question mark.

Here’s the deal. This will be a shootout. Boise’s Kellen Moore and Oregon’s Jeremiah Masoli will have a big days. Both teams will have 100-yard rushers will John Avery and LaGarrette Blount. But, Boise, thanks their great secondary, will offer the most defensive game. I see them forcing at least a couple of turnovers, scoring defensive points and generally thwarting Oregon’s vertical offense just enough to allow the Broncos to win by at least a touchdown. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Plays Day Baseball (UPDATED)

July 25, 2009
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(ED NOTE: UPDATED at 6:30 pm)

The Tigers are killing me. Jackson pitched well, but had one bad inning and gave up a couple of runs. The problem is the Tigers have not scored their first at bat and have been given us a clinic in hitting into double plays and squandering scoring chances ever since.

They’re down 3-2 with the White Sox batting in the top of the 8th.

Might as well throw out there who we’re on tonight:

Milwaukee -129 over Atlanta.  Brewers always worth a look at home, especially with their ace on the mound at a cheap price. I think they bounce back from last night and get the win tonight.

Houston -136 over NY Mets. The Mets are a mess and have one of the biggest money burners of the season. The Astros are just too hot to bet against right now.

Dodgers -168 over Marlins. Dodgers have been the best home team all season. We’re chasing a bit here. They lost last night at home, so we’re betting on them today that it wont happen twice in a row. If we loss, we’ll bet double on them tomorrow that it wont happen three times in a row. The whole point of this progessive chase is to eventually win a Unit when the best home team in baseball finally wins another game at home. Hopefully, it wont take a while. What can go wrong?

Those are the three tonight. Hopefully we have a Tigers comeback in the late innings.

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I struggled staying up through the final innings, but it was worth it plucking out a 2-1 record on those three west coast games I played last night. It evened the record at 6-6 for E.P. Read more »

Estimated Prophets Stays Up Late

July 24, 2009
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With one week to go in July, its showdown weekend in the National League. Ten teams are above .500 on the senior circuit and eight of them play each other in three-game sets beginning tonight.

St. Louis and new acquisition Matt Holliday take on the champion Phillies. The Giants are in Coors taking on the Rockies in a matchup of the top two teams in the Wild Card chase. Atlanta travels to Milwaukee and the Marlins are out west facing the Dodgers. Toss in a battle for first place between the Tigers and White Sox and the Twins playing the Angels in the American League, combined with the scuttlebut of the looming trade deadline, and an intriguing weekend of bases will surely ensue.

We’re staying up late tonight. We like the matchups and are going to the window. Here’s on who and why:

Giants +119 over the Rockies. I hate betting against the home team at Coors, but this has not been a real vintage Colorado team in Denver with a pedestrian 25-20 record. The Giants struggle on the road, but they have Matt Cain going tonight. The Giants are 14-5 in his starts, including wins in five of their last seven on the road. Cain has 15 starts where he has given up 2 earned runs or less, 12 with only one or less. Rockies could end up winning the series in the end, but they’ll be in a 1-0 hole after tonight.

Dodgers -150 over Marlins. We’re fading an ace. Hopefully that works better than backing them has for me. Dodgers have been the best home team all season. It’s not like they have some srcub pitching tonight in Kershaw, whose season has rivaled Johnson’s, his counterpart tonight. I like having the best home team in baseball at such a cheap number with one of the better hurlers on the mound.

Angels -150 over Twins. I’ll take Lackey tonight against a Twins team he has had a lot of recent success against. Sigh. Guess I will never learn since I am back on an Ace again.

We ended up going 4-5 last weekend in our foray into the world of baseball. Some of the money came back on Sunday, but I was nowhere near a computer to blog. But, for integrity’s sake, those games aren’t being included as we keep track. For now, I like the routine of making small bets on the weekend. It’s helping to scratch the itch thats become a bit more noticeable as football season approaches.

Preseason Bowl Chronicles: Las Vegas Bowl

July 23, 2009
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My call for BYU to win the MWC in 2009 begins and ends with these numbers, courtesy of Phil Steele’s preseason magazine: The last four times BYU has had a senior quarterback, they have won their conference title. Going back further into program history, whenever BYU has hd a senior starting QB they have a combined 106-23-2 record.

Good enough for me, especially with Max Hall back at the controls after throwing for a shade under 4,000 yards and accounting for 39 total touchdowns during his junior campaign.

I also like the fact that fellow offensive playmakers Harvey Unga and Dennis Pitta have healed from injuries which dogged them at different times in 2008. Behind this trio of stars, the Cougars will have no problem hanging 35 or more points against just about everyone on their schedule.

Defensively, look for one of the most experienced units seen in BYU iduringrecent years to improve upon last year’s results, which dipped from the previous two years efforts. After avergaing 4 returning starters over the last 5 years, the Cougars have eight back this season including two ALL MWC performers from a year ago at DE and LB.

The showdown with TCU that will turn the league race takes place in Provo, where BYU is riding an 18-game winning streak. Nobody has come within a touchdown of the Cougars during this streak. Sometimes thats the difference when you’re making bowl predictions in July.
 
 The one problem with the pick is that it puts the Cougars back in the Las Vegas Bowl for the fifth straight season. That just seems odd. Not to mention unimaginative of me. But, hey, its where the league champ is earmarked to go, so why overthink things? Read more »

Preseason Bowl Chronicles: Sun Belt Dynasty Returns To New Orleans Bowl

July 22, 2009
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Projecting the New Orleans Bowl gives us an opportunity to do something we’ve been chomping at the bit all offseason to do: Break down the Sun Belt Conference race.

The Sun Belt winner gets a bid here against against a Conference USA foe. And, for the first time in these bowl projections, we gat a chance to make a call on a champion.

For my money, the nod out of the Sun Belt has to go Troy. They are the premeir program in the league and have racked up three straight 6-1 Sun Belt seasons earning no worse than a share of the title each time.

Offensively, its going to hard for Sun Belt teams to stop them. Eight starters return after scoring in excess of 32 points per game two years running. Among that crowd includes Quarterback Levi Brown, who emerged from a muddled competition in midseason to throw 15 touchdowns and just three INTs en route to winning SBC Newcomer of the year; Dujuan Harris, a 1,200-yard tailback who was first team all SBC; Jerrel Jerrigan, a first team all SBC at WR last year and three starters back on the offensive line, two of whom earned Second Team All SBC last year. The offense could also see a potent weapon develop in redshirt freshmen Josh Jarboe, one of the best WRs in the 2008 recruiting class, who transferred to Troy after a You Tube rapping incident got him tossed out of Oklahoma.

Troy exceeded 30 points in every SBC game last year and in 12 of their last 14 league games. Look for Troy to put up big numbers again all season in conference games.

Defensively, some retooling will be needed with just five returning starters, but all five made the first or second team all league teams last year. With bookend DEs Brandon Lang and Cameron Sheffield, they have the best pass rush in the league. With Boris Leee and Bear Woods, they have a pair of 100-tackle a season linebackers. With Jorrick Calvin, they arguably have the best cornerback in the lead. For a program thats allowed just 19.4, 15.1 and 16.7 points per game in league play in each of the last three campaigns, that ought to be enough to remain a stingy outfit in conference showdowns.

The Trojans primary challenge will come from Florida Atlantic, the only other team outside of Troy to have winning conference records in each of the last three seasons. FAU has three-year starter Rusty Smith, who regressed a spell from his sophomore year, running the offense and with seven other starters joining him, they could rival Troy in explosivness. Unlike Troy, they are completely rebuilding their defense and need to replace their top six tacklers, their entire linebacking crew and top sack and swipe artists. Conventional wisdom says the Sun Belt will be decided during the November 21 clash between Troy and FAU, but will the Owls defensive rebuild fast enough to even allow that matchup to be winner take all? That remains to be seen.

Even if f it does, I’ll still take Troy to win on their field anyday with the Trojans being 36-5 at home this decade. Read more »