Oddsmakers have already released Over/Under lines for total regular season wins for every NFL team for the upcoming season. Between now and the beginning of training camp (hopefully) I will post a division by division snapshot with the total regular season win games as a backdrop. Since we dove into the Arizona Cardinals a bit yesterday, we’ll continue in that neighborhood and take a look at the rest of the NFC West.
Arizona Cardinals
2009 O/U 8.5 wins
2008: 9-7
The numbers were detailed earlier. Either you believe in history and the Cardinals will fall by the wayside like just about every other Super Bowl runner up in the last 15 years. Or you feel the club is loaded with talent and the Warner to Fitzgerald combination with dominate NFL defenses with another year of seasoning together. Place your bets accordingly. Frankly, I think the Super Bowl Loser Jinx is too much too ignore. Or at least gives me enough pause to think the Cards could be a one-hit wonder.
Schedule Outlook: We’ll find out early if the Cards plan on joining or bucking history. Games with the Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Giants, are among their first six games, not to mention division grudge matches with the 49ers and Seahawks, two teams who feel they’re the Cards equal despite what happended last year. They also travel to Tennessee and host the Vikings in consecutive weeks late in the year. However, if a rally is needed to notch another winning record, they could do it in a closing four game stretch against teams that won a combined 15 games a year ago.
Seattle Seahawks
2009 O/U Wins 7.5
2008: 4-12
For the Seahawks to hit this Over, they need to win twice as many games this season as they won last year. Doubling your win total is a tall order for any franchise. The good news for potential Seahawk backers is that before last year, the Hawks had five winning years in a row, averging 10 wins a season in the process.
Was last year’s collapse the start of a Raideresque free fall from the top with the Seahawks about to enter a protracted losing era? Or will the franchise respond similar to the Eagles who dropped from their longtime perch in 2005, but have bounced back to make the postseason two out of the last three seasons all the while keeping Super Bowl hopes alfoat?
Looking at the offense, I tend to to think the latter. Last season, Matt Hassellback attempted less passes than backup Seneca Wallace due to a back injury. He will be back in form connecting right away with free agent signee TJ Housmandzadeh and breakout 2008 rookie tight end John Carlson to form one of the better passing offenses in the NFC. Throw in an offensive live stocked with parts, that’s say 50–75 percent healthier this season after missing an astonishing 34 starts last season, and the offense should be able resemble what we had seen during those playoff runs.
Looking at the defense, I tend to think this team won’t bounce back to the break even mark this season. The Seahawks defense last year mirrored a dripping gas can better than any woebegone relief pitcher ever could. They could not contain the vertical passing game, after Patrick Kearney’s second season ending injury in three years they became ordinary rushing the passer and burgeoning stud Lofi Tatupo lost his entire game. Nothing they did in the off season impresses me as the solution, so they’re relying on a lot of internal improvements to get better.
Therin lies both the enthusiasm and caution when looking to invest in the Seahawks. With so many injuries and slumps last season, their ceiling is inherently high heading into 2009 as formerly productive players play a full season or progress back to the mean. In the weak NFC West, that could pave the way to a surge up the standings. But, I count upwards of a dozen players who are being counted on heavily to shrug off bad years, injuries or both and regain a former level of play. Not all will and you have no idea how many players not bouncing back it will take to keep this team on the negative side of even. Production bounce backs could lead to football deep in the month of January. The wrong combination of players not rebounding could make another 4-win season a possibility.
In June, none of us can speak with any certainly about how any of these rebounding players are doing. It will make the Seahawks training camp one of the more interesting to watch later this summer.
Schedule Outlook: The Hawks need to start fast, opening with three games against teams of equal or lesser caliber. Two are divisionsl games and two are at home. Starting in October, the Hawks play at Indy, Jacksonville at Dallas, at Minnesota and twice against Arizona. As long as they don’t collapse during that challenging stretch, the Hawks should be in contention for at least eight wins. If they dont have those in the shopping bag by Christmas, however, they might not get it. The Hawks close out the season at Green Bay and home versus Tennessee.
SAN FRANCISCO.
2009 O/U 7.5 wins.
2008: 7-9
Its telling of the volatile footing NFL franchises stand on that the Vegas line for total wins is the same for San Francisco and Seattle, despite the fact that the 49ers have been dormant for most of this decade and have 25 less wins than the Seahawks since 2003.
Folks seem genuinely excited about the Mike Singletary era by the Bay, including the new head man himself who threw down the gauntlet during OTAs earlier this month and predicted the playoffs for a team thats had six straight losing seasons in a row. Its not just self promotion. Others have touted the virtues of the 2009 club saying they have the look of this year’s Cardinals and they pack the division’s best defense. Keep in mind, a Cardinal goalline stand in Week 10 is all that really separated the 49ers in the standings from the eventual NFC Champions. They went 5-4 once Singletary took over as head coach and the whole team rallied behind the move, including the defense which yielded just 14 ppg in that stretch.
With the signing of moter end Justin Smith, the ongoing excellence of Patrick Willis, the steady playmaking of Nate Clements and the continued development of first round drafts picks Manny Lawson and Kentwan Balmer last year’s defensive closing kick can be replicated in 2009.
The problem is the offense. Can you really look at team, notice that Shawn Hill is the starting quarterback and say, without trembling, thats the team you’re picking to have a winning season? He’s shown flashes, but only in intermittent stretches. Won’t NFL defenses eventually get a book on him and begin to expose his flaws. Besides, the guy isn’t even the entrenched starter yet. There were three published reports during OTAs proclaiming the job wide open with former first round pick Alex Smith back in the mix. Not only has Smith not played in nearly two years, but never did he show any consistent game or ability to play at this level. Yet, he still could be the man behind center this season. Thats just not the type of QB situation I’m ready to invest in longterm just yet. As training camp evolves laster this summer, and Hill siezes the job immediately because of his play, then I could reconsider the 49ers as we get closer to Week One.
Schedule Outlook: With road games at Arizona, Minnesota, Houston and Indy in their first seven games, the 49ers may need to hold serve in early home games against Seattle, St. Louis and Atlanta to have any hope of contending for a winning record by November. If they’re in range come the holidays, the slate works in their favor ending the year with a home game against Detroit and on the road in St. Louis, where they’ve won two years in a row and in three of their last four visits.
ST LOUIS
2009 O/U 5.5 WINS
2008: 2-14
If you’re planning on taking this Over, then I wish you all the luck in the world. Consider this: You would need the Rams to win 6 times in 16 games after having only won 5 of their last 32 games. You are banking on quite a reversal of fortunes, and I dont think there is a lot of screaming evidence out there to latch hope upon.
Yes, QB Mark Bulger has a lot of talent and has performed at a high level before. But after two years of being bounced around the pocket, you have to wonder how gun shy he is and if he even trusts his offensive line at this point. Yes, Stephon Jackson can be a load and has showed franchise back flashes at times in his career. But, he is one more year older is coming off a sub par season. and with one of the worst receiving corps in the game, opposing defenses are going to be able to stack the line of scrimmage all season on these guys. Yes, LB James Lauranitis might become a star and contend for rookie of the year honors. But, his position was a rare bright spot for the Rams last season, so his addition wont cure any the ills that has plagued the team recently.
With the Cardinals coming off a Super Bowl, the 49ers looking on the uptick and the Seahawks remaining stocked with a large core of players who have owned this division before, the Rams have the look of the clear cut last place team. Only sixteen of the 68 last place teams since 2002 have exceeded 5 wins, and seven of those clubs only managed six. If you can talk yourself into the Rams not being the last place team of this league, then that’s one thing. But, if you cant, then there’s no way you can invest in them going over the 5.5 win mark with over 75 percent of cellar dwellars netting no more than five wins.
Schedule Outlook: Its hard to project a schedule for a team with so low expectations. Every game looks like a challenge. At first blush, they will be the underdog in almost every game they play. Starting with a pair of road games and in four of their first six, its hard to conjure a fast start. If they can nab a 2-3 wins, however, before November, then you might have something. The travel to Detroit to open the month, Then, after a bye week have three straight home games against New Orleans, Arizona and Seattle. There could be multiple wins in that stretch. After road trips to Chicago and Tennessee, the Rams close with Houston, at Arizona and home versus San Fran. How comfy are you if the Rams still need a couple wins? I would not be.
